With the continuous decline in the economy, China is facing a wave of unemployment. The latest official data from the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) shows that the average urban unemployment rate for the first half of this year is 5.2%. However, the CCP’s data has always been unreliable. Even Li Daokui, often referred to as the “economic master” within the CCP, does not believe it. He estimates the broad unemployment rate to be at 10.2%.
On July 20th, the CCP’s National Bureau of Statistics released data on the unemployment rates by age group for the month of June.
In June 2026, the unemployment rate for labor force aged 16-24 in urban areas, excluding students, was 14.9% (compared to 14.5% during the same period last year); for the age group of 25-29, the rate was 7.1% (up from 6.7% last year); and for the group aged 30-59, the rate remained steady at 4.0%.
The data indicates that the average urban unemployment rate for the first half of the year was 5.2%, with the rate for June specifically at 5.0%.
There have always been doubts from the outside world about the accuracy of the CCP’s official data, even Li Daokui doesn’t believe it. Li Daokui, 62, who previously served as a consultant to the People’s Bank of China and is one of China’s most prominent economists, stated at a China Macro Forum (CMF) seminar on July 11, that the biggest problem facing the Chinese economy is its overall cooling. He noted that the economy has been cooling for three years, with the inability to drive the entire economy.
According to reports from Caixin, Li Daokui’s research team, based on data from the National Bureau of Statistics, calculated the broad unemployment rate by including the labor force that has been unable to find work in the past two years and is no longer included in official statistics. The estimated broad unemployment rate in China has reached 10.2%, with around 24 million long-term unemployed individuals, including approximately 13 million young people aged 16-24.
Among the unemployed, youth unemployment remains high. The latest official data shows that China’s youth unemployment rate was 14.9% in June, higher than the same period last year.
Due to the impact of the graduation season, youth unemployment rates may continue to rise. According to data from the CCP’s Ministry of Education, the number of college graduates in 2025 was 12.2 million and in 2026, it reached 12.7 million, reaching a new record high.
Bloomberg cited a prediction from Xing Zhaopeng, an economist at ANZ Bank, stating that with the intensification of the oversupply of labor, the youth unemployment rate in the next two months may approach 20%.
According to information circulating on social media, local governments and universities are collaborating to manipulate employment data. For example, arranging college graduates and unemployed youth to participate in various temporary and symbolic activities to artificially lower the unemployment rate in statistics and ensure stable data.
The unemployment rate is closely related to the true weakness of the Chinese economy and labor market. English Epoch Times columnist Antonio Graceffo, in his article “Seven Factors of CCP Statistics Lowering Unemployment Rate,” points out serious structural flaws in the official unemployment rate data released by the CCP:
1. Inadequate statistics for migrant workers: Only migrant workers who have resided in a region for a minimum of six months are surveyed, excluding short-term and seasonal migrant workers.
2. Forced classification of rural household registration: Rural residents working in cities are classified as capable of returning to agricultural work after unemployment, regardless of whether they have such opportunities in their hometowns.
3. Exclusion of self-employed individuals: The unemployment rate survey does not include the 149 million self-employed individuals in China who have no income.
4. Changes in youth statistics methods: The method for calculating youth unemployment rates changed in 2023, with part-time/internship-seeking students being forcibly excluded.
5. Even after revisions, youth unemployment rates remain high: Despite modifications, youth unemployment rates from 2025 to 2026 rose again and remained at a high level of 14.5% to 18.9%.
6. Low standards for the gig economy: The statistical standard defines “employed” as working at least one hour per week, concealing the true low wages and instability of up to 320 million flexible workers.
7. Loss of manufacturing and construction jobs: Large numbers of blue-collar workers have left urban areas due to contract violations and project stagnation, returning to rural areas and no longer being included in urban unemployment data.
These factors shed light on the complexities of China’s unemployment situation and the challenges faced by the labor force as the country grapples with economic uncertainties and discrepancies in reporting.