Global accounting firm Deloitte released its forecast for holiday retail sales in the United States on Thursday (September 10). According to the report, retail sales during the holiday shopping season from November to January are expected to increase by 4.0% to 4.8% compared to the previous year, with total sales reaching $1.70 trillion to $1.71 trillion.
The holiday retail sales growth rate during the same period in 2025 was 4.1%. Deloitte noted that this forecast was based on data from government agencies such as the U.S. Commerce Department and the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The projected sales figures are higher than the seasonally adjusted total of $1.63 trillion in 2025, excluding gas stations and auto-related dealers.
Akrur Barua, an economist at Deloitte Insights, stated that personal disposable income remains a key factor in the forecast. “We expect a 4.5% to 5.2% increase in personal disposable income during the holiday shopping season,” he said. Despite consumers still prioritizing value for money, income growth is supporting purchasing power.
Holiday season e-commerce sales are projected to grow by 7.5% to 8.4% compared to the same period in 2025, reaching $316.1 billion to $318.9 billion (an increase of 7.5% from approximately $294 billion in 2025). Deloitte emphasized the continued importance of digital tools, promotions, and price comparisons in holiday consumption.
Natalie Martini, Deloitte’s Vice Chairman, stated, “Consumers still value creating a special holiday for friends and family while making more cautious purchasing decisions.” Consumers across income levels are seeking deals, including brand switching and cross-store shopping comparisons, to maximize their budgetary benefits.
Global management consulting firm Bain & Company also released a forecast approximately a week ago, estimating a 4.5% year-on-year increase in holiday retail sales. Bain pointed out that over half of the nominal sales growth would come from higher inflation rather than pure volume increases.
Bain’s analysis indicated that categories such as furniture and household goods, electronics and appliances, and food and beverages may show average sales performance. General merchandise, apparel accessories, and e-commerce are expected to see both price increases and volume growth simultaneously. Physical store sales are projected to contribute about 70% of overall holiday revenue, with most of the additional growth expected to come from non-physical store channels. Physical store sales are expected to increase by about 2.5%, similar to 2025.
Overall, the forecasts from both institutions indicate that holiday consumption remains resilient, but consumers will be more budget-conscious in their spending.