Brazil will hold the first round of presidential elections on October 4. The latest polls show a tight race between the incumbent Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flavio Bolsonaro, the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, with both garnering 41% support in the simulated runoff election.
The polling agency Quaest conducted a survey from September 3 to 6, interviewing 2004 people with a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points. The results indicate that Lula’s support has slightly dropped from 43% to 41% in the past month, while Flavio Bolsonaro’s support has been steadily climbing to 41%.
Analysts attribute Lula’s decline in the polls to the ongoing controversy involving the Supreme Court. The central issue revolves around the massive fraud case of the now-defunct Master Bank.
In early September, Judge André Mendonça, appointed by former President Bolsonaro, revealed a federal police report showing improper dealings between Daniel Vorcaro, the former controller of Master Bank, and several judges. Vorcaro had allegedly contacted Judge Morais to inquire about the progress of investigations and discuss matters related to interference in investigations and fleeing the country. Another judge, Dias Toffoli, was forced to recuse himself from relevant cases due to personal and financial ties.
Morais used his long-running “fake news investigation” to accuse Mendonça of political bias in the fraud cases involving Master Bank and the Brazilian National Social Security Institute (INSS).
Chief Justice Edson Fachin of the Supreme Court has intervened in the matter, requesting explanations from both sides and relevant officials and taking some procedures under his personal supervision.
The eruption of this event has further eroded the trust in the criticized Supreme Court. The latest polls show that over half of Brazilians do not trust the Supreme Court, viewing it as too powerful, politicized, and lacking effective oversight.
On Monday, Brazil’s Independence Day, Flavio and opposition groups held a rally on Paulista Avenue in São Paulo, criticizing the trust crisis sparked by the STF and gearing up for the presidential election on October 4.
According to the “Political Debate Observation” at the University of Sao Paulo, despite the chilly weather, approximately 28,500 people attended this conservative rally. The organizers framed the event as a protest against the Lula government and Judge Alexandre de Moraes.
Flavio addressed his supporters, stating, “Anyone who votes for Lula is voting for Moraes.” He emphasized that his father was sentenced and disqualified from running due to political persecution by Moraes. His running mate, Congressman Alfredo Gaspar, added, “Without Moraes, there is no Lula, and without Lula, there is no Moraes.”
Former Brazilian President Bolsonaro, after his defeat in the 2022 elections, has repeatedly claimed election fraud, refused to acknowledge the results, and called for a recount or military intervention.
In January 2023, his supporters stormed government institutions in the capital, which was classified by the authorities as an attempted coup. Judge Morais, responsible for the related cases, in September 2025, found Bolsonaro guilty of plotting a coup and sentenced him to 27 years in prison, stripping him of his right to run for office. Bolsonaro’s camp sees this as a political persecution.
Andreza Aruska de Souza Santos, the director of King’s College London’s Brazil Institute, told France24 that Brazil’s overall economic performance and political trust are heading in completely different directions.
She stated that while Brazil’s overall economic indicators may appear positive, people are facing heavy living costs and significant fluctuations in the job market. The impact of this real experience combined with political distrust is likely to be much greater than cold, hard data.