Welcome to “News Insight” on Wednesday, December 11th. In this episode, we have senior researcher Song Guocheng from the International Relations Research Center of Political University, and Wu Sezhi, Director of the China Issue Research Center of Taiwan Think Tank as our special guests, along with the host Zhang Dongxu.
Today’s focus: More Chinese scholars are speaking out against the CCP! The US adheres to the island chain strategy, leaving no room for the CCP to maneuver! Reversing course, the CCP is retreating in a more aggressive manner! Can Trump negotiate an end to the Russia-Ukraine war? Is Taiwan waking up to the CCP’s united front tactics?
Before Trump took office, the CCP launched its largest military operation since the 1996 Taiwan Strait Crisis, attempting to control the First Island Chain with a large-scale military deployment. Why did they avoid using the term “military exercises”?
With the US Defense Secretary in Japan and three US aircraft carrier battle groups guarding the western Pacific in the north, east, and south of Taiwan, several commanders are making statements in succession.
The situation in the Taiwan Strait, the Korean Peninsula, the Middle East, and Ukraine are interconnected. From Hamas to the fall of Assad, is the domino effect unraveling the CCP’s Middle East strategic layout? Trump is calling on Putin and Beijing to halt the Russia-Ukraine war, is there a move to force the CCP to yield?
In September, AEI scholar Michael Beckley gave a speech at an international forum in South Korea, where he analyzed that China’s rise, as claimed by the CCP, has come to an end and is now reversing. Countries that once benefited from China’s economy are now turning against Beijing, drastically reducing global favorability towards China.
However, there are concerns about the CCP regime as they intensify suppression and fascism, aggressively expand their military during peacetime, and export resources to support other dictatorial regimes, inciting conflicts.
Professor Song Guocheng’s book “Stalling China” has analyzed the slowdown of the CCP. How do we interpret scholar Beckley’s observations?
From the 9th to the 11th of the month, the PLA designated seven airspace reservation zones and a large number of military aircraft intruded around Taiwan. Foreign media revealed at least 90 warships or coast guard ships spanning the seas of Japan, Taiwan, and the South China Sea, erecting a “ship wall” between the First Island Chain and the Second Island Chain in the eastern part of Taiwan. The Ministry of National Defense of the Republic of China confirmed the “remarkable” number of ships; an official said this was the first military exercise by the CCP along the “First Island Chain” since 1996; national security officials revealed that this was the largest-scale maritime military operation by the CCP moving troops for up to 70 days.
Director Wu Sezhi interprets: (1) Who is the target of the PLA’s actions? What are their intentions? (2) The Chinese Foreign Ministry has evaded questions about military exercises for two days. The Taiwanese military says the CCP doesn’t refer to it as “exercises,” but they have actually done it. Why is the PLA doing this?
After 1996, the largest military operation by the CCP targeted the First Island Chain. Taiwan’s top national security officials revealed that the CCP deployed troops for up to 70 days, two months before Lai Ching-te’s visit. Looking back, it seems that the US was already aware, as on November 19th, the USINDOPACOM Commander made a rare statement to prepare to support Taiwan’s defense and warned the PLA.
The US Defense Secretary is currently in Japan, stating, “When the US wants to convey a message of concern, it typically sends a warship. When the US wants to show extreme concern, it dispatches an aircraft carrier battle group.” Three US aircraft carrier strike groups are currently active in the western Pacific: to the east of Taiwan, the USS Carl Vinson recently sailed to the Philippines Sea, conducting carrier aircraft landing and takeoff training; to the north of Taiwan, the USS Washington is stationed at the Yokosuka Naval Base in Japan; and to the south of Taiwan, the USS Abraham Lincoln, originally in the South China Sea, has sailed eastward.
During the PLA’s actions from the 9th to the 11th, from the 6th to the 13th, the US, Japan, and Australia conducted a joint military exercise “Exercise Cherry Blossom” in Japan involving 7,000 personnel. In December, the US and Japan will draft a joint defense plan in the event of an incident in Taiwan.
Teacher Wu Sezhi observes: What preparations have the US and its allies made and what signals have they sent? Taiwan President Lai Ching-te’s visits to Pacific island nations and the transit of US military forces are being described as connecting the defense of the three major island chains in the Pacific.
The collapse of Assad in Syria is believed to have severely impacted Russia and the CCP’s Middle East strategy. Without the bridge of Syria, Iran will find it difficult to rebuild its influence in Lebanon via Hezbollah.
Professor Song Guocheng observes: Is the CCP’s multifaceted proxy layout in the Middle East collapsing?
The rapid evolution of the Syrian civil war and the collapse of Assad are seen as the results of the Russia-Ukraine war and the interconnected changes in the Middle East and Asia. Will this situation affect the Russia-Ukraine war?
Trump was recently invited to Europe to meet with leaders from France and Ukraine, where he called on Putin to take action to cease-fire and pointed out that China can provide assistance. The world is waiting!
Please ask Professor Song Guocheng: Trump will take office as President of the United States on January 20 next year. How do you view this goal of quickly mediating the Russia-Ukraine war? The Trump team emphasizes deterrence; could there be accompanying measures and strategies? For example, tariffs or a strengthening of NATO forces in Europe?
Previously, the Taiwan internet celebrity Chen Boyuan, who was active in Chinese media platforms, unexpectedly collaborated with anti-CCP influencer Bajiong to produce a documentary revealing the CCP’s united front tactics targeting Taiwanese internet celebrities. The first episode garnered over two million views, with the upcoming second episode scheduled to feature their conversation with CCP officials in Fujian Province across “the strait.”
Please ask Teacher Wu Sezhi: President Lai Ching-te emphasized on Human Rights Day the need to strengthen democratic defense capabilities. From what was uncovered in this documentary, what issues or phenomena do you see? Every city in mainland China has a United Front Work Department, prompting scholar Li Zhongxian to warn of the scale of United Front penetration. Wang Dan, a participant in the 1989 Tiananmen Square protests, suggested the US establish a “Committee to Address Chinese Agent Infiltration”?
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