At the start of the new year, attention in Washington turns to the upcoming midterm elections, where Republicans will strive to defend the gains they made in the 2024 elections, while Democrats are eager to regain control of the federal House of Representatives in Washington.
The battle for control of the House of Representatives is likely to be the most closely watched race in the midterm elections, as the odds for both sides are nearly equal. Meanwhile, Republicans hold a 53-47 majority in the Senate, making it more likely for them to continue controlling the Senate in 2026.
Many forecasts indicate that Democrats will reclaim control of the House of Representatives for the first time since early 2023. Data from the political news and polling aggregation website RealClearPolitics shows Democrats leading by 3.9 percentage points in the House generic ballot – a strong indication that Democrats are poised to control the House.
A particularly dramatic aspect is the redistricting battle that has spread from Texas to California and on to Ohio over the past decade. Currently, Republicans have a slight edge in redistricting.
However, Democrats also have some favorable signs, particularly winning or narrowly claiming victory in a series of elections that were previously thought to favor Republicans.
Looking at historical trends, Democrats have another advantage: the party of the president historically tends to lose seats in midterm elections, with only a few exceptions.
Of course, nothing is set in stone yet, and either side looking to secure 218 seats will have to go through battles in America’s heartland.
This article systematically elaborates on the House districts that both the Republicans and Democrats will focus on.
The New York 4th Congressional District on Long Island is represented by newly elected Democratic federal representative Laura Gillen from New York. She won her seat in Congress for the first time in 2024.
Two Democrats are challenging Gillen in the primary, while three Republicans hope to flip the district. Located in Nassau County, the district is in the more Republican-friendly eastern part of Long Island.
Democratic candidate and former Vice President Kamala Harris won the district by 1 percentage point in the 2024 presidential election.
The 4th district of New Jersey, represented by Republican federal representative Thomas Kean from northwest New Jersey. Kean has been serving as a Congress member since 2023.
Eleven Democrats are competing for a chance to challenge Kean in the midterm elections.
In the 2024 presidential election, Republican candidate Donald Trump won the district by a 2 percentage point margin.
The 7th Congressional District of Pennsylvania includes Lehigh County, Carbon County, and Northampton County, represented by newly elected Republican federal representative Ryan Mackenzie from Pennsylvania. He won his seat in Congress for the first time in 2024.
The district is a key target for Democrats.
Five Democrats will compete against Mackenzie in the general election. Pennsylvania Governor and Democrat Josh Shapiro has publicly endorsed firefighter union leader Bob Brooks.
In 2024, Trump won the district by a 3 percentage point margin.
The 8th Congressional District of Pennsylvania (including Scranton/Wilkes-Barre) is represented by newly elected Republican federal representative Rob Bresnahan from Pennsylvania. He won his seat in Congress for the first time in 2024.
He won the swing seat by a 1.6% margin, making it a top target for Democrats in the more favorable 2026 political environment.
Scranton Mayor Paige Cognetti and social media influencer Eric Stone are running as Democrats in the race.
In the northeastern part of the state, the district supported Trump with a 9 percentage point margin in the 2024 presidential election.
The 10th Congressional District of Pennsylvania covers the central and southern parts of the state, represented by Republican federal representative Scott Perry from Pennsylvania. He has been in Congress for 12 years.
Perry previously served as leader of the conservative House Freedom Caucus.
Former news anchor and Democrat Janelle Stelson is running again after an unsuccessful bid for the seat in 2024.
In 2024, Trump won the district by 5 percentage points.
The district includes Virginia Beach and has been represented by Republican federal representative Jen Kiggans from Virginia since 2023.
Former Democratic federal representative Elaine Luria is running for the seat again.
In the 2024 presidential election, Trump won the district by a 0.2 percentage point margin.
Ohio’s 1st Congressional District in Cincinnati is represented by Democrat federal representative Greg Landsman from Ohio, who won his seat in Congress for the first time in 2022.
Three Republicans and one Democrat will run to challenge Landsman in the election.
Harris won the district by 7 percentage points in the 2024 presidential election.
Michigan’s 7th Congressional District covers parts of the southern and eastern areas of the state, represented by Republican federal representative Tom Barrett from Michigan. He won his seat in Congress for the first time in 2024.
The seat was previously held by current Democratic Senator Elissa Slotkin from Michigan, who resigned in 2024 to run for a Senate seat.
In the 2024 presidential election, the district voted for Trump by a 1 percentage point margin.
Seven Democrats have announced campaigns to challenge Barrett, including notable figures such as former US Ambassador to Ukraine Bridget Brink and retired Navy SEAL Matt Maasdam.
Wisconsin’s 3rd Congressional District covers the western and southwestern parts of the state and has been represented by Republican federal representative Derrick Van Orden from Wisconsin since 2023.
Three Democrats are competing in the primary to challenge Van Orden in the election.
In the 2024 presidential election, Trump won the district by an 8 percentage point margin.
Iowa’s 1st Congressional District adjacent to Illinois and Missouri is represented by Republican federal representative Mariannette Miller-Meeks from Iowa.
Four Democrats and two Republicans are attempting to challenge her in the election.
Trump won the district by an 8 percentage point margin in the 2024 presidential election, indicating that Republicans are likely to hold onto the seat.
Colorado’s 8th Congressional District, north of Denver along Interstate 25, is represented by newly elected Republican federal representative Gabe Evans from Colorado. He won his seat in Congress for the first time in 2024.
Seven Democrats are vying for the district, with an additional Republican challenging Evans for the nomination.
In the 2024 presidential election, Trump won the district by a 2 percentage point margin.
New Mexico’s 2nd Congressional District covers half of the southern area of the state and is represented by Democratic federal representative Gabe Vasquez from New Mexico. He won his seat in Congress for the first time in 2022.
Three Republicans have joined the race to challenge Vasquez in the election.
In the 2024 presidential election, Trump won the district by a 2 percentage point margin.
Republican federal representative David Schweikert from Arizona, who has served in Congress since 2011, is retiring, making the seat highly contested.
A crowded field of candidates from both parties is vying for their party’s nomination in the district, with seven Republicans and ten Democrats hoping to succeed Schweikert.
Trump won the district, including the northeast part of Phoenix, in the 2024 presidential election, with a 51.1% vote share.
Arizona’s 6th Congressional District, including suburbs of Tucson, is represented by Republican federal representative Juan Ciscomani from Arizona since 2023.
Five Democratic candidates are competing in the primary to challenge Ciscomani in the election.
Trump won the district by a 1 percentage point margin in the 2024 presidential election, indicating the district could go to either party.
California’s 13th Congressional District is represented by newly elected Democratic federal representative Adam Gray from California, who won his seat in Congress for the first time in 2024.
Three Republicans are trying to challenge Gray in the election.
Trump won the San Joaquin Valley district by a 5 percentage point margin in the 2024 presidential election.
The 22nd Congressional District of California in the San Joaquin Valley is represented by Republican federal representative David Valadao from California, who has been in Congress for ten years.
Four Democrats have joined the race, hoping to replace Valadao in the Republican-leaning district.
Trump won the district by a 6 percentage point margin in the 2024 presidential election.
The district is represented by Republican federal representative Darrell Issa from California, who has served in Congress for 22 years and includes the Temecula Valley wine region in Riverside County.
Eleven Democrats are vying for the district.
Although Trump won the district by a double-digit margin in the 2024 presidential election, the district has been redrawn as part of California’s new congressional district map in response to redistricting in Texas.
This means Issa will face an even more challenging political battle following the redistricting, despite his district remaining one of the most Republican-favorable districts.
Washington’s 3rd Congressional District covers the southernmost part of western Washington state and is represented by Democratic federal representative Marie Gluesenkamp Perez from Washington.
Republican state Senate leader John Braun and three other Republicans, along with one Democrat, are trying to unseat her.
The seat historically favors Republicans, but Perez’s moderate approach is popular in the district.
In the 2024 presidential election, Trump won the district by a 3 percentage point margin.