Japan hosted the “Extended Deterrence Dialogue” (EDD) with the United States at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Tokyo on June 8-9 to discuss China’s “large-scale and lack of transparency” nuclear weapons expansion. They denied Russia’s assertion that North Korea’s possession of nuclear weapons is a done deal and reiterated their commitment to achieving complete denuclearization of North Korea.
On June 9, the U.S. State Department issued a joint statement on EDD with Japan. The U.S. reaffirmed its commitment to Japan’s defense by utilizing comprehensive defense capabilities, including nuclear weapons. Japan reiterated its support for maintaining peace with U.S. military forces and related actions, which also helps to enhance deterrence through “deterrence dialogue.” The U.S. side was jointly led by the State Department and the Department of Defense, while the Japanese side was jointly led by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of Defense. Representatives included the Japanese Joint Staff, the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, U.S. Strategic Command, U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, and personnel from the U.S. Forces in Japan.
Given the increasing regional nuclear threats, the delegations discussed the U.S.’ efforts to modernize and adjust its nuclear forces, as well as Japan’s defense policy and capabilities. They also addressed China’s large-scale and lack of transparency nuclear weapons expansion and opposed Russia’s view that North Korea’s possession of nuclear weapons is a settled matter. The U.S. and Japan reiterated their commitment to achieving complete denuclearization of North Korea.
Japan strongly encouraged the U.S. to promote multilateral strategic stability dialogues to help prevent nuclear arms races, address concerns related to nuclear testing, reduce nuclear risks, and enhance transparency, including engaging in arms control dialogues with China and Russia.
The concept of EDD originated during the Cold War, with the core idea being the U.S. not only protecting itself but also using its military capabilities, including nuclear weapons, to defend its allies. The U.S.-Japan EDD roughly institutionalized around 2010 due to rapid developments in North Korea’s nuclear weapons and missiles, China’s military expansion, and Japan’s resulting insecurity. Thus, the U.S. and Japan established regular strategic dialogue mechanisms to help Japan understand U.S. nuclear strategies and for the U.S. to comprehend Japan’s security concerns in order to coordinate responses to crises.
The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) released its latest yearbook on June 8 with the theme “Heightened Risks amid Escalating Tensions, Increasing Focus on Nuclear Weapons.”
SIPRI noted that in 2025, nine nuclear-armed states – the U.S., Russia, the UK, France, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea, and Israel – continued to modernize and enhance their nuclear arsenals, with most deploying new nuclear warheads or weapons systems that year. By the end of the century, China’s intercontinental ballistic missile inventory may be comparable to that of Russia or the U.S.
Regarding China’s nuclear status, SIPRI estimated that China currently possesses around 620 nuclear warheads. China is expanding its nuclear arsenal at a faster pace than other countries and showcased several new types of nuclear systems at a parade in 2025.
By January 2026, China had deployed hundreds of missiles in three large missile launch wells in northern China and built 30 missile launch wells in three mountainous areas in the eastern part of the country.
In December 2025, the U.S. Department of Defense submitted the report “Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China 2025” to Congress, stating that China may have deployed over 100 DF-31 intercontinental ballistic missiles in newly built missile wells.
The report indicated that the range of DF-27 (Dong Feng-27) intercontinental ballistic missiles is roughly 5,000 to 8,000 kilometers. Launching from missile silos in Gansu, Qinghai, and Henan, China, missiles with a range of 5,000 kilometers could hit most regions of Japan, Korea, India, Southeast Asia, Central Asia, the Middle East, most regions of Russia, and the northern part of Australia. With a range of 8,000 kilometers, the impact area could extend to parts of the U.S., such as Alaska, Hawaii, parts of the West Coast (Seattle, San Francisco, Los Angeles), most of Europe, the entire Australia, and the entire Indo-Pacific region.
Heather Williams, Director of the Nuclear Issues Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) Defense and Security Program, and Senior Researcher Joseph Rodgers jointly published an article titled “Parading China’s Nuclear Arsenal Out of the Shadows” on September 4, 2025. On September 3, 2025, China held a parade.
The article began by stating, “It is well known that China is modernizing its nuclear arsenal and significantly expanding its scale. But China has never acknowledged this—at least not until yesterday.
“For the past five years, China has been undertaking the largest nuclear arsenal construction in history, with its arsenal expanding from 300 warheads in 2020 to about 600 in 2025, more than doubling. The U.S. Department of Defense estimates that by 2030, China will have over 1,000 nuclear warheads. China’s parade showcased five nuclear capabilities that can target the U.S. mainland.
“As part of this arsenal construction, China has constructed massive intercontinental ballistic missile launch wells in the western region to deploy nuclear weapons capable of reaching the U.S. mainland. China has repeatedly denied this and spread misinformation through bots to discredit the existence of these missile launch wells, claiming that they are actually wind power plants. This parade not only comprehensively displayed these nuclear capabilities but also indicated their strategic position in China’s arsenal and strategy.”
The parade showcased three types of land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles: Dong Feng-61 (DF-61), Dong Feng-31BJ (DF-31BJ), and Dong Feng-5C (DF-5C). The DF-5C is a liquid-fueled intercontinental ballistic missile capable of carrying multiple megaton-class heavy nuclear warheads to target the U.S. mainland. The U.S. Department of Defense previously admitted that other variants of the Dong Feng-5 can carry multiple warheads through a technology called Multiple Independent Reentry Vehicles (MIRV).
Information on the Dong Feng-61 intercontinental ballistic missile is very limited. Images from the parade show that the DF-61 is a road-mobile intercontinental ballistic missile launched by a 16-wheel transporter erector launcher. The Dong Feng-31 is a solid-fueled intercontinental ballistic missile. The “China Military Power Report” previously stated that the Dong Feng-31 is a road-mobile system. During the parade, China also displayed a new silo-based version of DF-31BJ.
The article further mentioned, “The notable aspect of these capabilities is that China’s publicly showcased nuclear strike capabilities are limited to targeting objects on the U.S. mainland. It is worth noting that China did not display its short-range nuclear systems, such as the Dong Feng-26 (DF-26) nuclear power version that may belong to intermediate-range ballistic missiles. Additionally, China did not showcase the Dong Feng-27 (DF-27) missile tested in 2023 and believed to have been deployed in 2024.”
Williams and Rodgers believed that the U.S. is losing the arms race. Due to delays, funding shortages, and lack of political priority, the U.S. has yet to initiate its long-delayed nuclear modernization program; meanwhile, China and Russia are expanding their nuclear arsenals at a staggering rate. This is no longer a theoretical competition but a real-life showdown.