Recent attacks on Black Sea ports and ships by Russia and Ukraine have led to delays or cancellations in grain shipments, tightening global wheat supply. Chicago wheat futures have risen over 17% since early July, putting pressure on major wheat-importing countries like Egypt and Indonesia.
According to reports by Reuters, in recent weeks Russia and Ukraine have been attacking each other’s ports and ships, resulting in the closure of some grain terminals. This has forced dozens of shipments to be postponed or canceled during the peak export season. The reduced supply in the Black Sea region has also driven up wheat prices in other major exporting countries.
A trader selling Black Sea wheat to Asian flour mills based in Singapore stated, “The shipments were supposed to start arriving from mid-August, but many vessels are unable to dock for loading.”
The trader added, “Buyers are considering alternative sources to replace some of the shipments, such as Australia, North America, and Argentina.”
Asian grain processors have ordered around 2 to 2.5 million metric tons of Black Sea wheat expected to be delivered between July and September, accounting for 30% to 50% of the import demand during this period. However, traders are concerned that some of these shipments may not arrive on time.
Argus Media grain analyst Maxence Devillers mentioned, “By the end of August, the market will need to find solutions.”
Egypt, the world’s largest wheat importer, heavily relies on Black Sea supply. In the first half of this year, over 82% of Egypt’s wheat imports came from Russia and Ukraine. Traders note that the pressure is mainly on the private sector in Egypt, where more than half of the wheat demand is imported with limited stockpiles.
Indonesia, the world’s second-largest wheat buyer, has already signed contracts to purchase around 600,000 tons of wheat, originally scheduled for shipment from the former Soviet region between July and September.
An official from the Indonesian Flour Mills Association mentioned that their current wheat stocks are enough to meet the short-term demand for consumption, but not abundantly so. If shipments from Russia and Ukraine are delayed, they will have to seek alternative sources from countries like Bulgaria, Australia, Romania, and Argentina.
Turning to other supply countries also means rising import costs. Currently, Black Sea wheat prices are around $260 to $280 per ton. In comparison, the lowest-priced US wheat is around $305 per ton, and Australian high-quality white wheat delivered to Asia is priced at around $315 to $320 per ton.
Maritime safety issues are also becoming a growing concern in the market. Hesham Soliman, a trader at the port of Alexandria in Egypt, mentioned that there are fewer ship owners willing to dock at Russian or Ukrainian ports.
“The situation is worsening day by day,” he warned, indicating that a failure to find solutions could lead to supply shortages.
Traders noted that during the Russia-Ukraine conflict, there was an unspoken agreement to avoid attacking grain ships and port terminals, allowing both countries to maintain significant agricultural exports. However, this agreement has crumbled in recent weeks.
The Ukrainian Ministry of Infrastructure reported that in July of this year, Ukrainian ports experienced 35 attacks on ships within the ports, 22 attacks on ships at sea, and 67 attacks on port facilities, compared to only 14 similar incidents in the entire year of 2025.
Currently, favorable harvests in some regions of the Middle East and North Africa have temporarily alleviated the supply disruptions.
The Egyptian government has set record local wheat procurement this year, while improved rainfall in Morocco and Tunisia has enhanced the local crop outlooks.