Analysis: Xi Jinping’s military “Iron Triangle” smashed

Chinese Communist Party leader Xi Jinping personally promoted a group of senior military leaders who have subsequently been investigated, and now more military confidants are rumored to be under investigation. Analysts suggest that Xi Jinping’s “iron triangle” in the military has been disrupted, with his wings in the military being clipped.

On April 8th, independent commentator Cai Shenkun stated in his self-media program that the anti-corruption efforts in the military have gone through two phases. Initially, public opinion squarely targeted current Vice Chairman of the Military Commission Zhang Youxia, as the individuals involved were all Zhang’s former subordinates. However, after April 2024, the situation completely changed, and now those under investigation are said to be Xi’s confidants.

Cai Shenkun pointed out that Xi’s close confidant, Director of the General Office Zhong Shaojun, was reassigned as the political commissar at the National Defense University in April 2024, essentially stripping him of his real power. Additionally, Xi’s personnel manager in the military, Miao Hua, is under investigation, and Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission He Weidong is guaranteed to face trouble, even if major issues are not found, the possibility of reinstating his position seems unlikely.

Cai Shenkun believes that these three individuals, as Xi Jinping’s “iron triangle” in the military, either face marginalization or trouble, indicating that a series of military cleansing actions surrounding them are directly aimed at weakening Xi Jinping’s power in the military.

The fate of these three close confidants of Xi remains unclear. While Zhong Shaojun’s transfer to the role of political commissar at the National Defense University after his duties as Director of the Military Commission General Office were assumed by Fang Yongxiang has not been confirmed, Miao Hua was investigated last November, and there has been no official announcement regarding further actions. He Weidong has been rumored to be under investigation since the Two Sessions in March this year, and has been absent from important events for over three weeks.

Current affairs commentator Li Linyi told Epoch Times that if He Weidong, Miao Hua, and Zhong Shaojun are considered Xi’s military “iron triangle”, then regardless of the situation of Zhong Shaojun or He Weidong, the triangle has been dismantled since Miao Hua’s downfall.

During the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party, Xi Jinping secured a third term, with the “Xi Family Army” taking full control. However, many of his promoted confidants have been purged one after another following the congress, especially within the military where significant changes have occurred. Dozens of leaders and senior officials from various branches such as the Rocket Force, the Strategic Support Force, and the Equipment Development Department have been taken down, including former Defense Ministers Wei Fenghe and Li Shangfu.

Xi’s personally endorsed Chinese People’s Armed Police Commander Wang Chunning, newly appointed Rocket Force Commander Wang Houbin, Eastern Theater Commander Lin Xiangyang, Navy Political Commissar Yuan Huazhi, and former Army Political Commissar Qin Shutong are all rumored to be under investigation.

Former writer for the CCDI’s Supervisory Department, Wang Youqun, analyzed in an article for Epoch Times that since Xi took office, the two key figures in assisting Xi’s “political military building” — former and current members of the Central Military Commission, Director of the Political Work Department of the Military Commission Zhang Yang, and Miao Hua, have encountered trouble, which itself represents a major failure in Xi’s “political military building”.