Renowned Chinese economist and former Chief Economist of Guotou Securities, Gao Shanwen, recently passed away. According to the latest disclosure by The Wall Street Journal, Gao Shanwen, after publicly questioning the official economic growth data of the Chinese Communist Party in 2024, drew the ire of CCP leader Xi Jinping. Xi Jinping ordered a thorough investigation, led by Director Cai Qi of the General Office of the CPC Central Committee. Gao Shanwen was subsequently prohibited from speaking publicly, and gradually faded from the public eye until his passing.
On July 7th, Gao Shanwen passed away at the age of 55 due to T-cell lymphoma.
The Wall Street Journal’s “Insight into China” column published on July 15th pointed out that Gao Shanwen “revealed the truth about the Chinese economy but spent his remaining life in silence.” The report highlighted that Gao Shanwen last made headlines for openly questioning the official GDP growth data of the CCP. The article reflected on the experiences of Gao Shanwen in his final year of life.
“In the past two to three years, the actual economic growth rate in China may have only averaged around 2%, while the officially announced rate was close to 5%.” In December 2024, then Chief Economist of Guotou Securities, Gao Shanwen, candidly expressed at a forum at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington, D.C., that the outside world could not know the true situation of China’s economic growth data.
Sources revealed that these remarks infuriated Xi Jinping. Given that Beijing sets an annual economic growth target of about 5%, and the final data is almost always achieved, Gao Shanwen’s public challenge to official statistics was seen as crossing a political red line.
The article mentioned that Xi Jinping ordered an investigation into the matter, with Director Cai Qi of the General Office of the Central Committee of the CCP assigned to oversee the probe. Gao Shanwen was subsequently barred from speaking publicly, and a scheduled university lecture was abruptly cancelled, with the official reason given as “scheduling conflict.”
In 2019, Gao Shanwen, in an interview, commented on the issue of China’s state-owned enterprise reform, stating that state-owned enterprises are the “party’s dual legs,” and that “people cannot cut off their own legs.” Therefore, state-owned enterprises remain the core support of Xi Jinping’s economic model, and the boundary between state-owned and private enterprises will only become increasingly blurred (meaning party-controlled enterprises extend into private enterprises), without truly achieving market-oriented reforms.
Over the past 30 years, Gao Shanwen’s assessments of the Chinese economy often preceded official narratives. He accurately judged the price cycles of Chinese assets and correctly pointed out the position of state-owned enterprises within the political system. However, his questioning of Chinese GDP data ultimately led to him paying the price of being silenced in his last year of life.
The article revealed that during the investigation, Gao Shanwen discovered his deteriorating health condition. Except for a few close friends and family, the outside world remained unaware. In the following months, he only briefly appeared via video at a forum at Peking University in September 2025. In November of the same year, he resigned from his position as Chief Economist of Guotou Securities, and in December, he was diagnosed with stage four cancer.
In fact, in recent years, Gao Shanwen had repeatedly publicly questioned Chinese economic issues. In early December 2024, he described the post-lockdown Chinese society as showing a scene of “vibrant elderly people, lifeless youth, and hopeless middle-aged individuals,” which attracted widespread attention.
Subsequently, he publicly stated that China’s actual GDP growth rate in recent years might be only around 2%, significantly lower than the nearly 5% officially announced, and these remarks quickly drew public attention, leading to the banning of his social media accounts.
After Gao Shanwen’s passing, numerous condolence articles appeared on Chinese social media platforms. Some netizens described him as “a rare economist who dares to speak the truth” and lamented that “nowadays, there are only ‘optimistic’ economists left.”
Renowned economist Lin Caiyi also penned a memorial for Gao Shanwen, revealing that as early as 2018, a CCP official publicly singled out and criticized Gao Shanwen in a meeting on Beijing’s Financial Street, saying, “The leadership is tolerant enough to you, instructing us to guide your speech more strictly,” indicating that Gao Shanwen had faced pressure from the authorities over the years for his outspokenness.
According to Hong Kong’s Ming Pao, a memorial service for Gao Shanwen was held on July 11th at the Eastern Hall of the Babaoshan Funeral Home in Beijing. As reported by Sing Tao Daily, several hundred people attended the memorial service.
Economic Observer reported that during the farewell ceremony, Li Wensheng, Vice Chairman and Secretary-General of the Peking University Alumni Association, described Gao Shanwen as a “noble gentleman” and a “straightforward person who upholds boundaries.”