Recent changes have occurred in the power structure of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leadership, with Cai Qi, holding multiple important positions, directly taking over as the President of the Central Party School, replacing Chen Xi whose reasons for stepping down are unclear, sparking various speculations. Yuan Hongbing, a well-versed scholar on Chinese politics, believes that Cai Qi’s replacement of Chen Xi is no trivial matter, indicating a significant political earthquake behind the scenes.
According to official CCP news in June, Cai Qi, in his 70s, has replaced the soon-to-be 73-year-old Chen Xi as the President of the Central Party School and the National School of Administration.
Chen Xi, a former classmate of CCP leader Xi Jinping at Tsinghua University, rose to become the Minister of the Organization Department and later the Minister of the Central Party School and National School of Administration. After the 19th National Congress of the CCP, Chen Xi became the Minister of the Organization Department and a member of the Politburo, eventually taking on the role of the President of the Central Party School (2018) previously held by Wang Huning. Following the 20th National Congress, Chen Xi, no longer a Central Committee member, delayed his resignation until April 2023 from the Organization Department Minister position and only recently stepped down as the President of the Central Party School. Some suggest that Chen Xi effectively controlled personnel appointment powers over three successors to Xi since he came to power.
Cai Qi is currently the nominal fifth-ranking member of the CCP, but it is widely believed that his position within the party ranks just below Xi Jinping. Cai Qi serves as the director of the Central Office and is always seated beside Xi Jinping at important events like the China-US and China-Russia summits. While Li Qiang, Zhao Leji, and Cai Qi serve as vice-chairs of the National Security Commission under Xi’s leadership, Cai Qi actually handles the affairs of the security committee.
Scholar Yuan Hongbing points out that Cai Qi’s appointment as President of the Central Party School, replacing Chen Xi, indicates a significant political earthquake within Xi Jinping’s personal autocracy. This political upheaval’s impact and shockwaves may even rival the repercussions of Xi Jinping’s removal of Zeng Yuxian.
Yuan Hongbing explains that following the 20th National Congress, Xi Jinping believed the entire Xi family Army had been firmly established, with military and party systems fully subjected to his control. However, within less than six months after the Congress, a series of incidents surfaced, involving corruption and disloyalty among high-ranking officials such as Li Shangfu, Wei Feng, Miao Hua, and He Weidong. Zhang Yuxia further challenged Xi Jinping’s authority by suggesting more collective decision-making rather than autocracy, especially regarding senior military appointments.
Zhang Yuxia, the Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission, was ousted alongside General Liu Zhenli in late January, sparking speculation of power struggles within the CCP military.
Yuan Hongbing believes that events from Li Shangfu to Zhang Yuxia’s downfall have dealt a severe blow to Xi Jinping, akin to the impact of the Lin Biao incident on Mao Zedong years ago.
Furthermore, Yuan Hongbing notes that while Zhang Yuxia was Xi’s last significant support in the military, Chen Xi played a crucial role within the party and government systems. With Cai Qi now replacing Chen Xi, it suggests that under Chen Xi’s leadership, issues of disloyalty within the organizational and cadre training systems may have prevailed. During his tenure overseeing organizational work at the Central Party School, Chen Xi may have used his power to protect individuals and officials considered potential threats to Xi Jinping.
Yuan Hongbing speculates that the extensive purge resulting from Cai Qi’s takeover from Chen Xi is an inevitable political consequence. Therefore, current party and government officials within the CCP system are likely feeling unsettled.
Reports circulating online speculate about Chen Xi’s possible demotion and retirement from deputy national level to deputy bureau level, but official confirmation is yet to be provided.
Yuan Hongbing suggests that Chen Xi is likely currently under a form of soft control. His eventual fate might mirror that of Wang Qishan, the first Central Commission for Discipline Inspection Secretary under Xi Jinping’s administration.
To avoid further political turmoil before the 21st National Congress, Xi Jinping is taking a softer approach with such veteran officials. His core objective is to secure re-election at the upcoming Congress and perhaps even achieve lifelong leadership.
During the National Party Building Work Symposium in Beijing on June 15, Cai Qi introduced Xi Jinping’s “Party Building Thought” as a key political task for the party’s current and future endeavors.
Yuan Hongbing views this as laying the groundwork for a new deification movement. Xi Jinping might even aim to abolish the position of General Secretary through the 21st Congress, reinstating the Central Committee Chairman system. He aspires to join Mao Zedong in realizing lifelong rule and achieving a comparable status in terms of ideological and theoretical influence. This becomes a significant political task for Cai Qi overseeing the Central Party School after such developments.
However, with both Zhang Yuxia and Chen Xi, two significant political pillars within the military and party-government systems facing issues, it indicates Xi Jinping is grappling with a major political crisis.
Yuan Hongbing draws parallels between Xi Jinping and Mao Zedong in their later years – constantly disrupting established organizational structures to ensure absolute loyalty to themselves. Xi Jinping is breaking down the Xi Family Army he nurtured himself, hoping to reconstruct a cadre corps entirely loyal to him before the 21st National Congress. Yet, Yuan suggests Xi may struggle to achieve this and may resort to relying on espionage to maintain personal autocracy.