Switzerland will hold a nationwide referendum on Sunday (June 14) on a proposal to set the country’s population limit at 10 million. This referendum could have far-reaching implications for Switzerland’s economy and its relationship with the European Union.
The latest polls show that the opposition is slightly ahead, but the final result on Sunday could be very close. Due to the prevalence of postal voting, the voting will end at midday Zurich time. Preliminary results will be announced shortly after the voting ends, but it may take a few hours to determine the final outcome.
Currently, immigration issues have polarized Swiss politics, and as populist movements sweep across Europe and even the United States, the Swiss referendum has attracted widespread attention.
Supporters argue that Switzerland’s land resources are depleting. The Swiss People’s Party (SVP) sees the population limit as a solution to high rents, overcrowded trains, and urban sprawl encroaching on the Alps.
Opponents include the government, the majority in parliament, and many business leaders who characterize the plan as “chaotic”. They warn that the proposal will harm economic growth, restrict businesses’ access to skilled workers, and threaten Switzerland’s relationship with the EU (Switzerland’s largest trading partner).
The proposed plan suggests limiting the Swiss resident population to under 10 million by 2050. Switzerland currently has a population of 9.1 million, and if the rapid population growth continues at its current pace, the government may be forced to restrict immigration within four years of the proposal being passed.
According to the proposal, once Switzerland’s national population reaches 9.5 million, the government will have to implement stricter immigration policies, particularly in asylum and family reunification. This situation is expected to occur around 2031, but could potentially happen as early as 2029.
Once the population reaches 10 million, Swiss authorities will be obligated to take “all possible” measures to comply with the population cap, including potentially terminating international agreements that lead to population growth.
If the Swiss population fails to decrease to the limit within two years and no special agreements are reached to comply with the restriction, Switzerland will have to terminate the free movement of persons agreement it signed with the EU in 1999.
The agreement allows EU citizens to reside in Switzerland for work or study and grants Swiss citizens equal rights in the EU. Residence permits (including for family members) can remain valid after employment ends. Switzerland has a “safeguard clause” mechanism that can impose restrictions on the free movement of persons in case of “serious economic or social difficulties,” which must be resolved through arbitration.
Since Switzerland signed the free movement of persons agreement with the EU in 2002, Switzerland’s population growth rate has significantly exceeded the EU average.
Many immigrants are attracted to Switzerland by its higher wages and lower taxes, leading to numerous businesses establishing themselves in Switzerland and creating a demand for skilled workers.
Against this backdrop, the Swiss People’s Party has initiated a population cap proposal, citing pressures on public services, housing due to high immigration, and an increase in crime rates.
The population cap proposal also reflects a widespread skepticism towards immigrants among the public. Less than three weeks before the vote, Winterthur experienced a knife attack suspected to be Islamic extremism, which investigators characterized as a “terrorist attack”.
The proposal requires support from a majority of voters and the various federal states in Switzerland to be passed.
In 2014, Swiss voters narrowly supported the Swiss People’s Party’s initiative to reintroduce EU immigration quotas, but its impact was weakened in subsequent political processes.
Switzerland faces a serious aging population issue, with many job positions relying on immigrants. The majority of immigrants come from Europe, and the EU is Switzerland’s most important trading partner.
Currently, foreigners make up nearly 28% of Switzerland’s resident population. A recent study showed that almost two-fifths of Swiss companies’ founders are foreigners.
According to the proposal, if Switzerland’s population exceeds 10 million and remains at that level, Switzerland will exit the EU’s free movement of persons agreement, and Switzerland may subsequently terminate other bilateral agreements with the EU, thus excluding Swiss exporters from the EU single market.
An EU Commission spokesperson stated, “Freedom of movement is a crucial aspect of our relationship. We will base our assessment of the referendum results on this.”
“The potential growth rate in Switzerland is currently estimated at around 1.7%, and a strict population cap could reduce it to 1.3% in the early 2030s, as it would limit the labor supply and weaken innovation. By 2050, Switzerland’s potential GDP is expected to be about 2% lower than the current estimate. The proposal also casts a shadow over Switzerland’s future relationship with the EU,” the spokesperson added.
Roche Pharmaceuticals Chairman Severin Schwan stated, “Switzerland cannot meet the demand for top talent alone,” while Stadler Rail CEO Peter Spuhler emphasized that approving the limit would set Switzerland on a “dangerous path.”