Despite the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between the United States and Iran, several ships began to leave the Persian Gulf on Friday, June 19th. However, experts in the shipping industry have warned that the central main channel of the Strait of Hormuz still has dozens of unexploded mines, casting doubt on the prospects for a prompt return to normal commercial shipping activities.
According to a report by The Guardian on Friday, June 19th, Phil Belcher, the Maritime Director of the International Association of Independent Tanker Owners (Intertanko), revealed that the main channel in the middle of the Strait of Hormuz is currently effectively closed.
Belcher stated, “The main channel in the middle of the Strait of Hormuz is closed because it is dangerous. The latest data we have is that there are still a large number of mines in the strait: 80 mines that will take some time to clear completely.”
During the US-Iran military conflict, Iran reportedly laid a significant number of mines within internationally recognized shipping lanes, severely restricting the passage of oil tankers and commercial vessels.
Belcher likened the current situation in the Strait of Hormuz to having the middle lane of a highway closed, forcing ships to travel on the “hard shoulder.”
He pointed out that the southern detour route along the coast of Oman is dangerously close to reefs, significantly increasing the risk of grounding and collisions.
Furthermore, electronic interference during the military conflict continues to disrupt navigation systems of ships, further complicating navigation.
Currently, nearly 600 ships are anchored in the Persian Gulf waiting to pass through. Even if the regional situation continues to improve, it will take a considerable amount of time to clear the backlog of ships.
Previously, approximately 130 ships transited the Strait of Hormuz daily, handling about 20% of global oil transportation.
Richard Meade, the Editor-in-Chief of maritime data provider Lloyd’s List, stated that the industry is facing an “unprecedented situation” and believes that the shipping in the Strait of Hormuz is unlikely to return to normal within this year.
Peter Sand, the Chief Shipping Analyst at maritime analysis company Xeneta, also cautioned to approach the US-Iran MoU with a “practical and extremely cautious attitude.”
He noted that even if the ceasefire can hold, around 10% of global container shipping volume would still be affected, and freight rates on major trade routes are continuing to soar. “The level of chaos is unlikely to reverse overnight,” he said.
The Guardian report highlighted another major concern in the global shipping industry, where the MoU includes a 60-day toll-free period, after which Iran may impose transit fees on passing vessels.
A spokesperson for the German shipping company Hapag-Lloyd condemned the collection of passage fees in international waters as “completely wrong,” which differs fundamentally from infrastructure-based charges such as those in the Suez Canal or Panama Canal.
Industry experts are worried that if a precedent is set in Hormuz, other crucial waterways such as the Strait of Malacca and the Taiwan Strait may follow suit, potentially having a profound impact on the global trade landscape.