On Sunday (June 9), the European Parliament, the only directly elected institution of the European Union, concluded its four-day election with victories for center-right and far-right political parties. The leaders of the EU will now begin negotiations regarding the top positions within the EU hierarchy.
The key institutions of the EU include the European Council (composed of the heads of state of member countries), the Council of the EU (an upper house comprising ministers of member countries), the European Commission (the executive branch of the EU), and the European Parliament (the lower house of the EU and the only directly elected body).
European Commission President:
The current President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, aims to secure a second term as the head of the executive body of the EU. The European Commission is responsible for proposing legislation, making it one of the most powerful positions within the EU institutions.
European Council President:
The European Council, consisting of ministers from member countries, is responsible for presiding over summits of the leaders of the 27 EU countries and coordinating to determine the strategic direction of the EU. The term of the current European Council President, Charles Michel, is set to end in late November.
High Representative for Common Foreign and Security Policy:
The High Representative for Common Foreign and Security Policy oversees meetings of EU foreign, defense, and development ministers. The current High Representative, Josep Borrell, will step down later this year.
The EU leaders are scheduled to hold an informal meeting following the G7 summit in Italy on June 17, followed by the EU summit in Brussels on June 28-29.
By then, they should have concluded their negotiations and finalized the candidates for the three highest-ranking positions mentioned above.
Traditionally, the candidate for Commission President comes from the political party that secures the highest rank in the parliamentary elections. Von der Leyen is the candidate of the center-right European People’s Party, which leads in opinion polls, giving her a favorable position.
The position of Council President is expected to go to the Socialists, who ranked second in the elections, while the position for foreign policy is likely to be held by the third-placed Renew Europe camp.
The European Council, comprising member state leaders, is also a significant EU institution. The three candidates need to secure a qualified majority at the summit – meaning they must receive support from at least 15 out of the 27 EU leaders, representing countries accounting for 65% of the EU’s population.
The President of the European Commission also needs to gain majority support from the European Parliament, which consists of 27 members.
These three entities hold a majority in the Parliament but only occupy 400 out of the 720 seats.
This means that von der Leyen may still need to engage with smaller parties like the Greens or Italian nationalist Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, who may not hold significant power, to ensure approval in Parliament.
The new Parliament is set to convene for the first time on July 16. EU officials hope the Parliament will approve the candidate for the President of the European Commission during that week since the next plenary session is scheduled within a week starting September 16.
European Commission President:
Von der Leyen is leading the race to secure a second term as President of the European Commission.
French President Emmanuel Macron had helped her secure the role in 2019, but this time, he has put forth alternative candidates, including former Italian Prime Minister and European Central Bank Chief Mario Draghi, stating that Draghi should “have a role.”
However, sources have indicated to Reuters that Macron is leaning towards supporting von der Leyen. One source mentioned that Macron does not wish for EU instability to exacerbate France’s own instability, as he has decided to hold early domestic parliamentary elections.
President of the European Council:
According to reports by Reuters, former Portuguese Prime Minister Antonio Costa is the main candidate, as diplomats have mentioned.
This Socialist figure faced allegations of irregularities in handling green energy projects, resulting in his resignation last November. He has denied any wrongdoing.
Portuguese Prime Minister Luis Montenegro, leading the right-wing coalition, stated he would support Costa if he decides to run.
There are few other prominent candidates at present. The Council President is typically a current or former Prime Minister, with few candidates from the EU Socialist Party.
Names of Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen and former Italian Prime Minister Enrico Letta have surfaced in recent months, according to diplomats, but Costa seems to have garnered widespread support.
High Representative for Common Foreign and Security Policy:
Diplomats have indicated that Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas appears to be the front-runner.
Some have expressed concerns that her stance towards Russia might be too firm for some EU member states. Nevertheless, these concerns seem to have dissipated in recent weeks.
As an Eastern European, she would bring geographic balance to the EU leadership.
However, former Luxembourg Prime Minister Xavier Bettel and Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo are also seen as potential candidates.