Recently, according to insiders, senior members of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) have reportedly established an independent system to collect economic data as they distrust official statistics. This has raised concerns about a lack of trust within the CCP. Experts believe that if the related data is accurate, it could further confirm structural issues in the Chinese economy such as weakness, overinvestment, property market collapse, and increasing unemployment. Analysis indicates that distorted policy orientation, long-term data distortion, and a lack of effective reform capability among the leadership make it difficult to improve China’s economic predicament.
This news was revealed by Du Wen, former legal advisor to the Inner Mongolia government, during a self-media program on May 26. He cited sources saying that when reporting on the economy to CCP leader Xi Jinping, CCP Central Office Director Cai Qi bypassed the National Bureau of Statistics and collected data through the separately established system.
Dr. Chen Wenjia, a Ph.D. from Osaka University in Japan and Vice President of Kainan University, expressed in an interview with NTD’s “News Analysis” program, that this news sends a sensitive political signal that “Xi may not even trust his own official statistical system.”
He stated, “Normally, the CCP’s economic data should be provided by the State Council led by Li Keqiang and the National Bureau of Statistics. But now, with reports of Cai Qi establishing a separate investigation system, it indicates that Xi Jinping may be worried about not getting bad news.” Chen Wenjia also pointed out that Cai Qi’s establishment of an alternative statistics bureau reflects an “internal crisis of trust” within the CCP, likening it to ancient emperors sending special envoys to secretly investigate local issues. He emphasized that if national leaders no longer trust the official bureaucratic system, it signifies a serious rift between central and local party and governmental affairs, serving as a crucial warning signal.
Cai Qi’s report showed that China’s Producer Price Index (PPI) has been negative for 42 consecutive months, while the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) in the manufacturing sector has been below 50% for 17 consecutive months. Additionally, among 41 key industries, 31 have experienced price declines.
This report contradicts the official data. Du Wen believes that this indicates that “the data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics is no longer considered a reliable basis within the CCP.” He stressed that the data he referred to is “not an external estimate but the real economic data seen by Xi Jinping.”
Independent commentator Cai Shenkun, in a self-media program, pointed out that Du Wen received the above information from “important individuals in a very authoritative department in Beijing” and emphasized that the news is “very accurate.”
Hu Liren, a former Shanghai entrepreneur, also confirmed in an interview on NTD’s program “Current Affairs Recap” that this data “completely matches” the current real economic situation in mainland China.
“From the current state of Chinese society, we see a wave of bankruptcies, many businesses closing down. According to my statistics, about 30% of businesses in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have closed in recent years, with many businesses operating in debt,” he said. “There is also the collapse of the real estate market, extensive unemployment. Therefore, the data mentioned by Du Wen should be very normal.”
He believes that China’s data manipulation has a long history, with the economic data previously released by the Ministry of Commerce being completely contrary to the real data, driven by the political needs of the CCP. He added, “It’s not just Xi Jinping, but including former leaders Jiang Zemin and Deng Xiaoping, I believe the economic data they received at the time had significant discrepancies with those publicly released.”
Wei Xiong Yu, an economist from the University of California, Los Angeles, also affirmed the accuracy of this data and believed it better reflects the actual situation of the Chinese economy.
Regarding the root of the various issues in the Chinese economy, he stated that “The CCP government has a mentality of ‘overtaking the United Kingdom and surpassing the United States,’ aiming to make China the world’s strongest and largest economy, thus resorting to all means to achieve this goal.”
“I think as long as this mentality persists, significant problems will arise. Because the central and local governments, to achieve economic growth goals, will engage in unnecessary investments,” he elaborated. He pointed out that in the early stages, such investments may not cause significant problems, but in later stages, it’s essential to carefully evaluate if there is genuine demand. “The CCP experienced the sweetness of investment during the reform and opening up period, believing that every investment would eventually bring returns, so there was a continuous push for investments, even zero or negative returns, leading to blind investments, borrowing money for investments, resulting in China being in a state of over-investment with accumulating debts.”
“This problem has now become a significant disaster,” Wei emphasized. “Starting from 2022, the real estate bubble began to burst, leading to various asset-liability recessions.”
In conclusion, he stated, “A truly balanced, equitable, and healthy economy should allow households and businesses to make assessments and decisions freely. But due to the CCP’s policy of encouraging investments, which suppresses consumption and disposable income, I feel that China’s entire economic problem is a result of structural imbalances and distorted policy directions.”
Regarding why Beijing, despite being aware of the actual situation of the Chinese economy, has not implemented substantive measures to salvage it, Shen Mingshi, a researcher from the Taiwan Institute for National Defense and Security Studies, expressed, “Since the epidemic, China’s economy has severely declined. However, the top leaders don’t understand economics; they only use regulatory methods or follow expert opinions without encouraging domestic investment.”
He further pointed out that post-epidemic, both domestic and foreign investors have withdrawn from China, moving to countries in Southeast Asia, worsening the Chinese economy. And while CCP leadership hopes they return to invest, they are powerless in doing so. “Even if you ask them to come back, after returning, they face fundamental issues like materials, labor, especially government regulations. These are the key issues. The CCP leaders do not understand; hence, they may not be able to grasp the critical issues and solve the problems effectively.”