Former Chinese official living in Australia, Du Wen, recently revealed that he had obtained an internal economic briefing prepared by the General Office of the CPC Central Committee, signed by Politburo Standing Committee member Cai Qi, and reported to Xi Jinping. The briefing showed that China’s employment situation has plunged into a serious crisis, with youth unemployment rates exceeding 40% in some regions. Several analysts point out that this crisis goes beyond the economic realm and is evolving into a systemic challenge affecting social stability and regime security.
Du Wen, a former Chinese official living in Australia, shared in a self-media program that he had been continuously receiving a series of internal economic research reports allegedly summarized by the General Office of the CPC Central Committee, signed by Politburo Standing Committee member Cai Qi, and reported to Xi Jinping.
He emphasized, “I will process individual data technically to protect the source of information, but the direction will not be incorrect, and the authenticity is one hundred percent.”
Du Wen stated that these reports revolve around three major areas: investment, exports, and domestic demand, all pointing to the same core issue – employment.
The report first addressed the issue of investment. Du Wen explained that Cai Qi informed Xi Jinping that the current investment growth momentum in China has significantly weakened, and local government fiscal pressures continue to accumulate.
According to Du Wen citing the report, “In 2025, the new special debt quota reached 4.4 trillion yuan, but only about 2.35 trillion yuan were actually used for investment construction, significantly lower than expected.” The report indicated that investment growth in sectors such as manufacturing and infrastructure continues to decline, and the proportion of private investment has also seen a significant decrease.
He said, “Private investment used to account for over 70% of total investment, but now it’s close to 40%.”
At the same time, foreign investment also showed a significant downward trend. According to the data he cited, the number of new large projects with foreign contracts exceeding $100 million in 2025 decreased by 26.8%, and the contract amount decreased by 46.5%.
It is noteworthy that there is a significant gap between the actual situation in the export sector and the external impression.
Du Wen cited the report saying that the US market remains China’s most important export market, and exports to the US have been declining continuously for several months. Of greater concern is the industrial shift caused by the decline in exports. He said, “The biggest consequence of the export decline is not earning less foreign exchange, but hollowing out of industries.”
As he introduced, by 2025, about 23% of key foreign trade enterprises had established overseas factories, and another 34% of large enterprises were progressing with overseas layouts. Many enterprises are transferring production lines to countries like Vietnam, Mexico, and India.
Du Wen stated, “The ones leaving are often not low-end production capacity, but rather high-end advanced capabilities.” He further quoted the report as saying that some enterprises have even moved their technology teams and core production lines altogether, leaving behind empty factories.
However, among the three major areas, the issue of domestic demand is the true focus of the report.
Du Wen explained that the report believed expanding domestic demand is the core of current economic work, with the fundamental reason for weak consumption being difficulties in employment. The report suggested that factors such as slowing income growth, shrinking wealth, and inadequate social security have led to a continuous decline in consumer confidence. The most critical constraint is the youth employment issue.
According to Du Wen citing the report, the youth unemployment rate in some regions has already exceeded 40%, with the overall youth unemployment rate nationwide also exceeding 20%.
At the same time, the demand for recruitment by enterprises continues to decline. The report shows that the recruitment demand in the labor market decreased by 16.8% year-on-year, with industries like catering and real estate experiencing even higher declines. Besides college graduates, the group of migrant workers also faces significant pressure. Du Wen cited the report saying that the slowdown in infrastructure investment and the relocation of foreign trade enterprises have led to a large number of migrant workers returning to their hometowns.
The report warned, “The risk of a scale backflow of migrant workers is increasingly intensifying.” Du Wen stated that the trend of returning home has brought about issues such as poverty rebound, increased petitions, and increased grassroots governance pressure in a chain reaction.
Regarding future trends, Du Wen believed the predictions in this report are very pessimistic. He pointed out that the report reflects that China’s economy has entered a “late-stage cancer.” (Related video)
This disclosure quickly sparked widespread attention from the overseas commentary community. Professor Zhang Tianliang from the Department of Humanities and Sciences at Flying University in the United States expressed on a self-media program that, “If the report revealed by Du Wen is true, it would mean that China is experiencing its most severe economic crisis since the reform and opening-up, surpassing the severity of the 1997 Asian financial crisis period.”
He believed that the current employment crisis is no longer just within the economic realm but is gradually evolving into political and social stability issues. He stated, “The CCP authorities do not see unemployment as a problem; gathering for protests is the problem.”
Therefore, according to Zhang Tianliang, when observing the situation in China in the future, the focus should not only be on changes in economic data but also on social organizational capabilities, changes in employment structures, and the continued impact of artificial intelligence on the labor market. (Related video)
Amid the escalating employment crisis, former Chinese entrepreneur Hu Li Ren approached the situation from a more macro political perspective and provided unique analysis on the current cognitive shifts in Chinese society.
Hu Li Ren pointed out in a self-media program that in recent years, Chinese society’s reflection on Xi Jinping and the CCP system is undergoing a transformation, especially with a noticeable change among the younger generation, “This trend was already visible during the White Paper Movement.”
He believed that one of the most significant impacts brought by Xi Jinping’s more than a decade of governance is prompting more and more Chinese people to shift their focus from individual leaders to reflecting on the system itself.
Hu Li Ren said, “The changes in China’s future come from an increasingly clear understanding of systemic issues in the entire society. Only when more people start thinking independently can China truly move towards a new future.” (Related video)