China’s second-quarter economic growth has slowed to 4.3%, lower than the 5% growth in the first quarter of the year, and also below the economists’ forecast of 4.5%. The Chinese government held a press conference today (July 15th) on the economic performance in the first half of 2026. According to Mao Shengyong, Deputy Director of the National Bureau of Statistics of the People’s Republic of China, the preliminary calculations show that the gross domestic product (GDP) in the first half of the year reached 69.5704 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.7% when calculated at constant prices. Breaking it down by quarters, the GDP grew by 5.0% in the first quarter and 4.3% in the second quarter. Quarter-on-quarter, the GDP in the second quarter grew by 0.9%.
In the second quarter of China (April to June), the economic growth rate slowed to 4.3%, below the 5% growth rate in the first quarter of the year. This performance fell short of the 4.5% growth target expected in a pre-survey conducted by Reuters. Bloomberg had also predicted earlier that China’s second-quarter economic growth rate would slow to 4.5%.
Bloomberg pointed out on July 14th that the economic slowdown reflects continued weak consumer spending, a stagnant real estate market, and declining investment outside of policy-supported sectors like high-tech manufacturing. It is estimated that the second-quarter economic growth rate will slow to 0.9% when compared to the previous quarter, reaching the lowest level since 2023.
Bloomberg’s survey estimates that China’s fixed-asset investment in the first half of this year is expected to decline by 5% year-on-year. This performance not only lags behind the 4.1% decline in the first five months but also is set to hit a new low since the outbreak of the pandemic in 2020; among them, real estate investment is expected to further decline by 16.8%.
CNBC reported that China’s GDP growth rate of 4.3% is the slowest since 2022 and didn’t meet expectations. The report mentioned that amidst tense trade relations with partners including the United States and the European Union, as well as weak domestic demand, the second-quarter growth fell below Beijing’s annual growth target range of 4.5% to 5% for the year, making it the least ambitious goal in decades.
Authorities stated that in the first half of this year, national fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) amounted to 22.637 trillion yuan, a decrease of 5.7% year-on-year.
CNBC’s report stated that urban fixed-asset investment, including real estate development and infrastructure projects, saw a year-on-year decline of 5.7% in the first half, with a more severe drop than Reuters’ estimated 4.9% decline, and an even larger decrease compared to the previous 4.1% decline in the first five months.
In June, the national urban unemployment rate was 5.0%, performing better than the market’s expectation of 5.1%.
However, amidst the recent economic downturn, the Chinese authorities have consistently promoted the “theory of a bright economic future,” and there have always been doubts from the outside about their economic data.
The late renowned Chinese economist Gao Shanwen had repeatedly questioned China’s economic reality. On December 12, 2024, Gao Shanwen said in a speech, “We cannot know the true growth figures of China’s economy. My personal estimate is that over the past two to three years, the actual GDP growth rate may have averaged around 2%, although the official figures are close to 5%.”