Renowned as one of the greatest physicists of modern times, Stephen Hawking, in addition to studying black holes and the mysteries of the universe, also pondered the future destiny of humankind. Before his passing, he outlined five existential threats facing humanity, including AI out of control, genetic technology, interference from extraterrestrial civilizations, global warming, and the inability to migrate to other planets.
Hawking believed that ultimately, humans have the capability to overcome various threats, but in the next century when humanity is solely reliant on Earth for survival, caution must be maintained. After all, a small asteroid impact, a devastating disease outbreak, or a nuclear war could potentially lead to the collapse of human civilization.
His viewpoint was not a doomsday prophecy but rather a reminder for humanity to understand potential risks and prepare in advance.
Despite not witnessing the emergence of ChatGPT and the recent AI boom, Hawking had long been concerned about the potential impacts of rapid advancements in AI.
Hawking once said the birth of superintelligent AI could be either humanity’s greatest breakthrough or pose unprecedented risks, particularly regarding the “alignment problem” of AI. He noted, “AI will be able to complete tasks with high efficiency, but if its goals are not aligned with human interests, we could be in crisis.”
He believed that AI might not necessarily need to intentionally oppose humans but could inadvertently disregard human existence and needs due to its superior capabilities. In that scenario, humans could find themselves in a situation similar to wild animals: humans (for the most part) don’t maliciously harm animals, but large-scale and vital human activities disrupt their habitats, making it harder for them to survive on this planet.
In 2015, Hawking, along with several experts, signed the “Open Letter on Artificial Intelligence,” calling on researchers to prioritize safety issues in AI development to ensure that future systems can maximize benefits and minimize potential risks.
Hawking delved into the issue of genetic engineering in his works. He predicted that humans might gain the ability in this century to manipulate “intelligence” and “certain behavioral traits.” Although nations may enact laws restricting the use of genetic technology, Hawking believed that the affluent class might still seek ways to genetically enhance themselves and their offspring, leading to new social hierarchies and possibly the formation of a “superhuman” population.
Hawking also cautioned that the risks of genetic engineering extended beyond human beings themselves, as genetically modified viruses could pose a potential threat. While current research mainly focuses on treating cancer and diseases, with technology becoming more widespread, the scope of applications could broaden. If someone were to create a lethal and contagious genetically modified virus in the future, it could pose severe security concerns.
Expressing concerns about humanity actively seeking and contacting extraterrestrial life, Hawking believed that if intelligent life truly exists in the universe, humans do not understand their intentions, and actively sending signals could “equivalent to inviting unknown troubles.”
He stated that any civilization capable of contacting or reaching Earth could be far more advanced than humans in technological terms. As such, he worried that a civilization capable of long-distance interstellar travel might not be seeking communication but conquest and colonization.
In 2015, he participated in the new Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence project, “Breakthrough Listen,” which avoids actively sending messages or signals into outer space and focuses on listening for signs of extraterrestrial life in cosmic signals.
During a press conference, Hawking reiterated, “A civilization that receives our message might be billions of years more advanced. If so, their capabilities could far surpass humanity’s, and in their eyes, humans’ status could be as insignificant as bacteria in our eyes.”
Hawking emphasized that regardless of how many doomsday scenarios there may be, humans could overcome adversity by “establishing space colonies.” He stated, “The more widely spread we are in the universe, the higher the chances for human survival.”
If humans only inhabit a single planet, in the event of a catastrophic event befalling that planet, human civilization could face extinction. However, if humans establish settlements on 300 planets, even if 299 planets are destroyed, there remains a chance for humanity to persist.
Hawking predicted that within a hundred years, humans would have the capability to search for new planets, and Earth could face severe destruction in the next thousand years due to “nuclear conflicts or environmental disasters,” necessitating prompt action on migration. He noted that leaving Earth does not mean abandoning it but offering Earth the opportunity to restore its ecology.
Hawking was deeply concerned about global warming and humanity’s response to the climate crisis.
He once stated that humanity was “close to a tipping point of irreversible global warming” and warned that future Earth could face extreme climate conditions resembling Venus, with surface temperatures exceeding 400 degrees Fahrenheit (approximately 204 degrees Celsius) and the possibility of sulfuric acid rain.
Some scientists viewed Hawking’s statements as exaggerated, arguing that Earth’s climate would not evolve into the extreme environment of Venus.
This article draws upon coverage from the technology website BGR.