On Sunday, June 14, the Australian think tank, the Lowy Institute, issued a warning through a research report that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) may pose a direct threat to Australia by deploying missiles on artificial islands in the South China Sea. The report also stated that with the expansion of China’s long-range and hypersonic weapon capabilities, this threat is expected to significantly increase in the next decade. It is crucial for Australia to gain a deeper understanding of the developments in the CCP’s military capabilities and the implications they bring.
The in-depth analysis report titled “Understanding the Chinese military threat to Australia” from the International Security Program of the Lowy Institute highlighted that while Australia currently faces various risks related to the CCP, including the ability to cut undersea communication cables, conduct cyber-attacks, and disrupt maritime trade, there is indeed a growing direct physical threat.
According to the report, a major threat is the artificial islands constructed by China in the South China Sea, potentially serving as a forward position for the deployment of medium-range ballistic missiles such as the DF-26, which could potentially reach northern regions of Australia.
The report further mentioned that over the next decade, as China continues to expand its long-range and hypersonic weapon systems, this threat will escalate. This is mainly attributed to China’s ability to launch missiles from surface ships, submarines, and the new type of medium-range ballistic missile DF-27, which can be launched from mainland China to the Australian continent.
The DF-27, with a range of 5,000 to 8,000 kilometers and a maneuverable hypersonic glide vehicle warhead, poses a challenge to defense systems, as stated by the US military in December last year.
The Lowy Institute noted that the DF-27 might be adapted into an intercontinental ballistic missile with conventional warheads, and its deployment numbers are expected to increase continually.
Additionally, the institute warned that if China begins to deploy new types of long-range manned or unmanned bombers, or deploy bombers and missile systems near Pacific islands close to Australia, such as by establishing military ties with South Pacific countries to obtain bases, the threat to Australia will significantly escalate.
The report emphasized that the analysis evaluates China’s military capabilities and not its strategic intentions. Sam Roggeveen, Director of the Lowy Institute’s International Security Program, highlighted that China’s military developments pose a significant change in Australia’s security environment since the disintegration of the Soviet Union.
Roggeveen emphasized the urgent need in Australian society for more comprehensive and informed discussions on these issues. The purpose of the report is neither to sensationalize nor to be blindly optimistic but to engage in rational discussions on regional security situations.
In response to the report, a spokesperson from the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs dismissed it as a “serious strategic misjudgment” and accused it of exaggerating the so-called “China (CCP) threat.”
As the report was released, Australia is adjusting its defense strategy to proactively address the expansion of the Chinese navy and the changing security situation in the Indo-Pacific region. In recent years, Australia has been strengthening military deployments in the northern direction and enhancing deterrence capabilities through partnerships like the Australia-UK-US Trilateral Security Agreement (AUKUS) and other security cooperations.
Despite the uncertainty of a direct attack from China on Australia, the growing military capabilities of China remain a point of concern. The security environment faced by Australia is evolving, necessitating a deeper understanding of the development of China’s military force and its impact.
The report aligns with past public opinion data from the institute, with recent surveys showing that nearly 70% of Australians are concerned about future military threats from China, half supporting increased defense budgets, and two-thirds backing the introduction of nuclear-powered submarines through the AUKUS agreement.