On May 31, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for May released by the National Bureau of Statistics of the Communist Party of China was 50.0%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, hovering around the critical point of 50. Analysts pointed out that the decline in the manufacturing PMI in May indicates that the momentum of economic growth still needs to be strengthened.
The National Bureau of Statistics of the Communist Party of China published the “Operation of China’s Purchasing Managers’ Index in May 2026” on its official website on the 31st.
The announcement showed that the manufacturing PMI for May was 50.0%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points month-on-month; the non-manufacturing business activity index and the comprehensive PMI output index were 50.1% and 50.5% respectively, with increases of 0.7 and 0.4 percentage points compared to the previous month.
Specifically, the PMI for large enterprises was 51.1%, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month; the PMI for medium and small enterprises were 48.6% and 48.5% respectively, a decrease of 1.9 and 1.6 percentage points from the previous month, both below the critical point of 50.
Among the 5 sub-indexes that make up the manufacturing PMI, the production index was 51.2%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month; the new orders index was 49.9%, down 0.7 percentage points from the previous month; the raw materials inventory index was 48.6%, down 0.7 percentage points from the previous month; the employment index was 48.6%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month; and the supplier delivery time index was 49.2%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. The data shows that all five sub-indexes declined, with four of them below the contraction area below the critical point of 50.
Zhang Liqun, a contracted analyst for the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, told First Financial that the slight decline in the manufacturing PMI in May indicates that the momentum of economic growth still needs to be strengthened. The decline in the order index indicates that the problem of inadequate demand remains prominent; as a result, production and procurement indexes have also declined, along with the expected indexes for production operations, the constraint of a pattern with weak demand and strong supply still restrains the improvement of the economy.
The announcement also stated that in May, the non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.1%, up 0.7 percentage points from the previous month; and the comprehensive PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month.
First Financial quoted Wang Qing, Chief Macroeconomic Analyst at Orient Securities, as saying that the overall growth momentum of the service industry is still weak, partly related to the continuous adjustment of the real estate industry, an important component of the service industry. It also indicates insufficient consumer confidence, with services like resident travel, catering, accommodation, culture, and entertainment consumption still in need of further boosting. In the short term, there is still downward pressure on the service industry PMI.
PMI is issued by the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics of the Communist Party of China and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing. It is a composite index compiled based on the monthly survey results of enterprise purchasing managers, covering various aspects of procurement, production, and circulation, including both manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors, and is one of the leading indicators commonly used internationally to monitor macroeconomic trends.
When PMI is above 50%, it indicates expansion compared to the previous month; when it is below 50%, it reflects contraction compared to the previous month.
The manufacturing PMI is calculated by weighting 5 diffusion indices (sub-indices). Specifically, it includes: new orders index, weighted at 30%; production index weighted at 25%; employment index weighted at 20%; supplier delivery time index weighted at 15%; and raw materials inventory index weighted at 10%. The supplier delivery time index is an inverse index, and inverse calculations are used in the composite manufacturing PMI index calculation.