On January 20, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) held a “special seminar” for provincial and ministerial-level officials regarding the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee. The opening ceremony was marked by the absence of several high-ranking officials including Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission Zhang Youxia. Speculations and rumors abound about the reasons behind their absence. Various overseas observers have provided insights and analyses from different perspectives.
According to reports from CCTV, the “special seminar” commenced at the Central Party School on the morning of January 20. CCP leader Xi Jinping delivered a speech at the event. CCTV footage showed several Politburo members were absent from the meeting, including Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission Zhang Youxia, former Xinjiang Secretary Ma Xingrui, Minister of the Central Organization Department Shi Taifeng, and Vice Premier He Lifeng. Additionally, there were absences noted from a Military Commission member and Chief of the Joint Staff Department Liu Zhenli.
He Lifeng was in Switzerland from January 19 to 22 to attend the Davos Forum. Ma Xingrui has been absent from multiple important occasions and rumors of his downfall have been circulating. The reasons for the absence of the other three officials remain unclear.
Among the absent senior military leaders, Zhang Youxia’s situation has garnered the most attention.
Australian independent media personality Jiang Wangzheng revealed to Epoch Times that he had heard some inside information. Around 10 p.m. on January 18, all military officers in Beijing were ordered back to their original units. Reports mentioned that Zhang Youxia’s son and his administrative secretary were taken away on January 19, and Zhang Youxia himself was interrogated on the morning of January 20. It was reported that a Central Military Commission Political Review Panel, led by Cai Qi, had been formed. It is possible that Zhang Shengmin may take over Zhang Youxia’s position as the First Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission, Dong Jun had been removed, and so forth.
Jiang claimed that any action against the Vice Chairman of the Military Commission would need the backing of the Secretariat of the Party Central Committee, and this time it was aimed at Politburo members, hence Cai Qi’s involvement. Former National Defense University Political Commissar Zhong Shaoren might make a comeback as the head of the Political Work Department or the Secretary of the Discipline Inspection Commission, taking over the position left by Zhang Shengmin.
He further stated that originally Zhang Youxia and Xi Jinping were aligned in interests, but Xi Jinping wanted Zhang Youxia removed while Zhang did not want to step down, leading to this conflict.
Epoch Times has been unable to independently verify the information provided by Jiang Wangzheng.
Independent commentator Cai Shunkun expressed on X that there is an increasing number of alarming rumors surrounding the alleged capture of Zhang Youxia. Initially, it was heard that the special unit of Wang Xiaohong had captured military personnel, and later, it was said that Zhong Shaoren, who was released, was taken again, with a total of 17 people detained. Due to the unverifiable sources of the information, further observation is suggested to see if Zhang Youxia appears at the upcoming New Year gathering. If Zhang Youxia is indeed captured, it signifies a showdown between Xi Jinping and the red families, and the remaining spectacle would focus on how the red families act at critical junctures. As long as…
Sydney University Associate Professor Feng Chongyi told Epoch Times that Zhang Youxia and others have never directly opposed Xi Jinping. They are still Xi Jinping’s lackeys and being manipulated by Xi Jinping. They have not taken the actions they should have taken. Their notable absence from the meeting indicates that Xi Jinping may have sidelined them.
China expert Wang He expressed to Epoch Times that information control within the CCP is severe, making it difficult to determine if these individuals are truly in trouble. In the new power structure of the Central Military Commission, apart from Xi Jinping as the Chairman, Zhang Youxia is a member of the Politburo, while the newly appointed Zhang Shengmin and the Minister of Defense Dong Jun are not. Therefore, the…
He believes that current rumors about Zhang Youxia’s disposition are intentionally being circulated with political intentions underlying them.
American scholar Wu Zuolai remarked in the “Slow Mountain Talks” program that historically, changes of dynasties are often accompanied by folk songs and rumors, some of which may eventually transform into actual political events. The current news circulating suggests that Zhang Youxia may retire during the upcoming parliamentary sessions.
He suggested that Zhang Youxia’s absence could be due to health reasons or the emergence of a major crisis in the military that requires his personal intervention, such as a recent failed rocket launch. The rift between Zhang and Xi Jinping is real, and Xi Jinping may choose to act decisively first.
Wu further explained that the conflict between Zhang Youxia and Xi Jinping is multifaceted. Firstly, Zhang Youxia is a true professional soldier, instinctively…
Checking official media reports, Zhang Youxia had been out of the public eye for a week in late November last year, leading to speculations until he reappeared and attended a collective study session of the CCP Politburo. His most recent public appearance was on December 22, 2025, attending the promotion ceremony of the Central Military Commission where he read out the promotion order signed by Xi Jinping.
Following their absence from the “special seminar” for provincial and ministerial-level CCP officials, on January 21, Shi Taifeng was again missing from the annual macroeconomic situation analysis symposium convened by the National Committee of the CPPCC in 2025. Similar symposiums in January 2024 and 2025 were overseen by Shi Taifeng.
Former Inner Mongolia official Du Wen analyzed in the media that Shi Taifeng not participating in the meeting was the real cause for concern. Since organizing such events for officials to enhance their knowledge is a responsibility of the Organization Department, Shi Taifeng, as the Minister, was the last person who should have been absent. Therefore, his absence was highly unusual.
Du Wen stated that the relationship between Shi Taifeng and Xi Jinping is delicate. According to his previous disclosures, when Shi Taifeng was in charge of Inner Mongolia, he had connections with the former Inner Mongolia Chairman Wang Lixia, who was associated with Xi Jinping in the past. It is possible that Wang Lixia implicated Shi Taifeng.
On January 18, an explosion occurred at the Baogang Plate Plant in Inner Mongolia. When Inner Mongolia Party Secretary Wang Weizhong went to “oversee the work,” he emphasized the implementation of the instructions of the CCP Politburo Standing Committee member Cai Qi. This move did not align with the established practices within the CCP and raised further speculation.
Wang He told Epoch Times that Cai Qi is responsible for party affairs and serves as the First Secretary of the Central Secretariat, overseeing all aspects of the party, government, and military. However, in the aftermath of a safety incident in Inner Mongolia, neither Xi Jinping nor Li Qiang issued instructions, with Cai Qi taking charge, which indeed is quite unusual and deviates from the political norms of the CCP. The underlying details warrant further observation.
Cai Shunkun, an independent commentator, previously commented on X, stating that the provincial secretaries must promptly implement Cai Qi’s instructions, suggesting that the explosion did not meet the standards of Xi Jinping’s directives, prompting questions of whether Cai Qi is taking over some of Xi Jinping’s powers.
Feng Chongyi told Epoch Times that if Xi Jinping were to fall, the Communist Party will be in jeopardy. Cai Qi simply lacks the ability to control such a situation.
Currently, Xi Jinping still dominates headlines in the party’s media. Recently, some prophets and fortune-tellers have predicted health issues for Xi Jinping in 2026, potential power shifts to his confidants, among other speculations.
Wang He indicated that Xi Jinping has long had health problems which are being controlled by medications. The point at which the medical control fails remains difficult to predict, as the CCP considers such information highly confidential, unlike the regular disclosures made by American presidents. If Xi Jinping retains significant power and falls ill, he would likely delegate power in advance to his…
Former mainland media figure Zeng Jieming explained to Epoch Times that the most likely reason for Xi losing power would be due to health issues. “With the CCP’s senior officials involved in heinous crimes such as live organ harvesting, no matter who takes power, they would uphold this authoritarian system of murder.”
(Contributions to this article were made by Epoch Times correspondent Chang Chun.)