Recently, a think tank in the United States released a research report warning against ignoring the Chinese Communist Party’s strategy of “winning without fighting” to take over Taiwan. With the increased pressure from the CCP on Taiwan following the inauguration of the new president and the intense political tensions in the Taiwan legislature, Professor Yuan Hongbing, a legal expert living in Australia, stated in an interview with Epoch Times reporters that the chaos in Taiwan is a result of CCP manipulation, and the CCP ultimately intends to resolve the Taiwan issue through the use of force.
Three days after Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te took office, the CCP conducted military exercises targeting Taiwan on May 23rd and 24th. Following this, Chairman of the U.S. House Foreign Affairs Committee Michael McCaul led a bipartisan group of heavyweight U.S. lawmakers to visit Taiwan on May 27th to meet with President Lai Ching-te.
President Lai expressed Taiwan’s hope for continued legislative support from the U.S. Congress to help strengthen Taiwan’s self-defense capabilities and enhance cooperation between Taiwan and the U.S. McCaul emphasized the need for all democratic countries to unite against aggression and tyranny.
Meanwhile, the “Parliament Empowerment Act” proposed by the Kuomintang (blue) and the People’s Party (white) sparked protests by 100,000 Taiwanese people on the streets. The actions of the blue and white parties are believed to be influenced by the CCP behind the scenes.
On May 13th, a joint research report titled “From Coercion to Capitulation: How China Can Take Taiwan Without a War” was published by the American Enterprise Institute and the War Studies Institute.
The 111-page report, co-authored by seven experts including Dan Blumenthal, is considered the latest authoritative report in the field on this issue. The report highlights that as the CCP continues to pressure Taiwan, the international community, including the U.S., focuses solely on the possibility of military action by the CCP against Taiwan while overlooking another tactic being utilized: coercing Taiwan into submission without using force.
The report identifies four key strategies the CCP may employ, including economic incentives and pressure, information warfare, military escalation, and coercive tactics to push Taiwan into surrendering without military action.
The report warns that if the CCP successfully implements each strategy, the people of Taiwan will feel overwhelming abandonment, and the Taiwanese government will be forced to consider a new paradigm in cross-strait relations to avoid further suffering and hardship.
Therefore, the report proposes that the U.S. and its allies should not only focus on the potential for war but should reassess the overall threat posed by the CCP and formulate a comprehensive strategy to defeat all aspects of the CCP’s threats.
Professor Yuan Hongbing has been studying various CCP strategies toward Taiwan for years. Last year, he published his 12th book on the Taiwan issue called “The Taiwan Strait Decisive Battle of 2025,” which foresaw the future scenarios of a Taiwan Strait decisive battle. He has also revealed internal CCP information on Taiwan policy to the international community.
On May 27th, Yuan Hongbing stated in an interview with Epoch Times that “the content of the report is all about events that have already occurred. In fact, since Xi Jinping came to power, the CCP has been waging a ‘total war’ aimed at eventually conquering Taiwan. Initially referred to as ‘total war,’ it has been implemented for seven to eight years by the CCP.”
Currently, Taiwan’s legislature is facing severe political divisions, and large-scale protests similar to the “Sunflower Movement 2.0” have emerged. The future trajectory of Taiwan is drawing global attention.
In response to this, Yuan Hongbing stated, “The chaos in the Taiwan parliament is something I revealed during an interview with ‘Watching China’ in early February. Conscientious individuals within the CCP system have reported relevant information, which I have shared with the world.”
In February, Yuan Hongbing disclosed during an interview with ‘Watching China’ that on January 27th, the CCP’s Taiwan Affairs Office submitted a report to Xi Jinping and Wang Huning, Chairman of the CPPCC National Committee and in charge of Taiwan affairs, detailing a “United Front Strategic Point to Occupy the High Point of the Taiwan Legislature.” It was reported that Xi Jinping intended to achieve united front goals by leveraging the power of the opposition parties in the legislature.
Regarding the purpose of occupying the legislature, Yuan Hongbing explained that the CCP aims to create chaos in Taiwan. “By using the legislative yuan as a point of entry, they aim to disrupt Taiwan from within, weakening the efficiency of the Taiwanese government, handcuffing the executive branch with legislative authority and preventing it from operating effectively. Simultaneously, they also seek to extend legislative powers into the judiciary through reform bills.”
“If these measures are implemented, Taiwan’s constitutional structure will be thoroughly destroyed,” he added.
For some time, pro-CCP media and public figures in Taiwan have continuously voiced pro-CCP sentiments.
According to statistics from the Taiwan Information Environment Research Center IORG, from July to September 2023, the CCP’s platform Douyin ranked the top 10 Taiwanese celebrities used for propaganda. By utilizing the statements of these Taiwanese celebrities, the CCP aims to create a biased image of Taiwan through its official media channels.
Yuan Hongbing stated, “The CCP’s total war on Taiwan is mainly evident in several aspects. Firstly, they have bought off a large number of Taiwanese celebrities and scholars to act as their spokespersons.”
“The CCP is exploiting Taiwan’s free democratic system to widely and shamelessly spread propaganda that generates fear of or favoritism toward the CCP. By spreading this atmosphere of fear or favoritism, they aim to weaken Taiwan’s social resistance to the tyranny of the CCP and the will of the people to resist military invasion. In essence, they seek to first breakdown the spiritual support among the Taiwanese people to resist CCP tyranny. This is their primary agenda, one that they have been implementing all along.”
On May 27th, the 77th World Health Assembly made a decision to reject a proposal to invite Taiwan as an observer. Under the guise of opposing “Taiwan independence,” the proposal has been rejected for eight consecutive years, serving as the latest evidence of the CCP’s suppression of Taiwan and implementation of a total war against Taiwan on the international stage.
Yuan Hongbing pointed out that the CCP, in addition to manipulating public opinion in Taiwan, “is also trying to strangle Taiwan from an international political perspective. For many years, the CCP has stripped Taiwan of its right to participate in international activities through various international organizations. The CCP seeks to stifle Taiwan from an international political perspective.”
“The CCP also employs total war tactics, utilizing information warfare, propaganda, psychological warfare, and other means to sow discord within Taiwan. They are particularly focused on incentivizing agents of the CCP to disrupt Taiwan once again on the scale of the Red Shirt Movement, creating chaos in Taiwanese society, politics, and social order. The CCP has been implementing this strategy for many years,” Yuan Hongbing said. “From a certain perspective, the war of the CCP tyranny conquering free Taiwan has already begun.”
Since Xi Jinping solidified his power, especially in his third term, the CCP has significantly intensified its efforts to use both soft power and military intimidation against Taiwan. The CCP is targeting Taiwan across all fronts, including international politics, diplomacy, military, economy, public opinion, and intelligence, with the ultimate aim of taking over Taiwan.
While the focus is often on the possibility of military action by the CCP against Taiwan, the report released by the U.S. think tank describes what the CCP is currently doing, will continue to do, and ultimately aims to achieve – the potential to take over Taiwan without engaging in war.
Yuan Hongbing stated that Xi Jinping’s strategy towards Taiwan through information warfare and military intimidation is not for the purpose of “peaceful unification.” These are merely tactics; his ultimate goal is to resolve the Taiwan issue through military force. This approach has been shaped by the lessons learned from the “return of Hong Kong.”
Reportedly, Xi Jinping has stated internally that he must heed the lessons of Hong Kong. The “peaceful return” of Hong Kong failed to effectively suppress and eliminate the “Hong Kong independence forces,” leading to significant social unrest and passive enforcement by the CCP.
Therefore, Xi Jinping believes that during the process of militarily solving the Taiwan issue, he can swiftly resolve the so-called ‘Taiwan independence forces’ through wartime regulations, once and for all. This is a basic strategic assumption of Xi Jinping, according to Yuan Hongbing.
“Xi Jinping’s other strategies towards Taiwan aim to destroy or weaken the will to resist a CCP military invasion and political energy of the Taiwanese people, all in preparation for reducing resistance and overcoming obstacles for achieving a military solution to the Taiwan issue,” he explained.
“The international community must have a complete understanding that the CCP’s goal is not to ‘win without fighting.’ The CCP unequivocally intends to resolve the Taiwan issue through military means,” Yuan Hongbing emphasized. “Of course, effective resistance against the CCP’s tyranny must also be applied on every non-military front. Only then can we halt the CCP’s war ventures.”
“The U.S. should alter its strategic ambiguity. Just as former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo recently pointed out, the U.S. should acknowledge Taiwan’s sovereign status, clearly express a strategically clear position. The CCP’s tyranny respects strength; only through strength can they be deterred, ensuring peace and security in the Taiwan Strait,” Yuan Hongbing concluded.