In recent years, China’s economy has been continuously declining, with businesses struggling to survive and unemployment rates, especially youth unemployment rates, soaring. According to official figures released by the Chinese Communist Party, the youth unemployment rate has dropped to 15.6%. However, analysts point out that many individuals have transitioned from “unemployment” to “low-income employment”, and the “surveyed unemployment rate” does not necessarily reflect the public’s perception.
On June 22nd, data released by the Chinese National Bureau of Statistics showed that in May, the unemployment rate for the 16 to 24 age group in urban areas, excluding students, was 15.6%, a decrease of 0.7 percentage points from April, marking a new low since June 2025.
However, the official Chinese data often conceals unfavorable situations, and the actual figures may be even worse.
Financial commentator Xiao Yi stated to Epoch Times that, “Looking at the data officially published, the employment situation in China showed signs of improvement in May 2026. The youth unemployment rate decreased from 16.3% to 15.6%, a drop of 0.7 percentage points. However, the decrease in youth unemployment rate does not necessarily mean a significant improvement in the job market.”
He pointed out that the decline in youth unemployment does not necessarily indicate an increase in high-quality employment. Many individuals have simply shifted from “unemployment” to “low-income employment”. For example, a large number of full-time students are excluded from official statistics, as they are merely delaying their entry into the job market rather than finding actual employment. Additionally, even those in unstable income situations from flexible employment are counted in the employment figures.
Furthermore, the statistical methodology itself has limitations.
The data released by the Chinese government pertains to the “surveyed unemployment rate” and not the “registered unemployment rate”. Xiao Yi explained that unemployed individuals must meet three conditions: not currently having a job, having searched for work in the past three months, and being available to start work within two weeks. Under these conditions, many vulnerable groups in reality are not included in the statistics, leading to a surveyed unemployment rate often lower than the public’s perception.
“In fact, what is truly worth paying attention to is the quality of employment, rather than the unemployment rate figures themselves. For instance, if wage growth slows down, work hours extend, flexible employment scales up, and resident consumption continues to shrink, the slight decrease in unemployment rate mainly reflects statistical improvements rather than necessarily indicating a positive recovery in the job market,” he stated.
On June 17th, the Center for New Employment Forms under the Chinese Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security released a “2025 China Blue-collar Employment Research Report”, stating that the population engaged in flexible employment (those engaged in paid work for more than one hour per week) reached 280 million in 2025, an increase of 40 million from 2024. It is projected to further increase by 40 million in 2026 to reach 320 million, drawing widespread attention.
Given that income directly impacts consumption, the situation of social retail sales inevitably reflects whether the employment conditions are improving.
Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on June 16th showed that in May, China’s total social retail sales reached 4.1 trillion RMB, a 0.6% year-on-year decrease, marking the first month of negative growth since the post-2022 pandemic period. From January to May, the total social retail sales accumulated to 20.6 trillion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 1.4%, significantly lower than historical normal levels.
On the same day, the National Bureau of Statistics also released urban unemployment rates. The data indicated that in May, the surveyed urban unemployment rate nationwide was 5.1%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. From January to May, the average surveyed urban unemployment rate stood at 5.2%.
Subsequently, the topic labeled “Really want to know how many people are currently unemployed” trended on Weibo, with a large number of netizens questioning the authenticity of the data, as their personal experiences vastly differed, with comments like “All of my younger cousins are unemployed,” “I’ve traveled to many cities in the past two months and the situation is generally not good,” and “I don’t know about others, but our company has laid off many employees.”