The latest official population sample survey by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) shows that the population on the mainland decreased by more than 6.32 million people in 2025 compared to 2020. Official data also indicates that the trends of declining birth rates and aging population in mainland China are intensifying. Due to the long-standing lack of transparency in CCP data, there are concerns that these official figures may still significantly underestimate the actual situation.
On May 22, the National Bureau of Statistics of China released the main data from the “2025 National 1% Population Sample Survey.” The data shows that the population of mainland China in 2025 was 1.4545 billion, a decrease of 6.328724 million from 1.41178724 billion people counted during the seventh national census in 2020.
In terms of age structure, official data reveals that the proportion of children in mainland China is decreasing, while the aging population continues to deepen. In 2025, the population aged 0-14 accounted for 15.25%, a decrease of 2.7 percentage points from 2020; the population aged 60 and above accounted for 22.86%, with those aged 65 and above making up 15.87%, an increase of 4.16 and 2.37 percentage points respectively from 2020.
In January of this year, another set of data released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China also showed a continuous decline in the population. The number of births in mainland China in 2025 was 79.2 million, a decrease of about 17% from 95.4 million in 2024; the number of deaths was 113.1 million, higher than 109.3 million in 2024; and the natural population growth rate was -2.41‰.
Previous reports by Epoch Times have pointed out that the official population data from the CCP has long lacked transparency, and the actual decline in the population may be more severe. Particularly since the outbreak of the pandemic, there have been continuous reports of abnormal busyness in hospitals, funeral homes, and crematoriums in various parts of mainland China, leading to ongoing skepticism from the public regarding the number of deaths due to the pandemic and the overall population decline. The fact that the official figures for deaths in 2025 in China continue to exceed births also fuels further doubt that the actual reduction in the population of mainland China may far exceed the official numbers.
The declining population has also had an impact on the education system. In a report by Epoch Times on May 18, it was highlighted that in recent years, the continuous decline in the population in mainland China has led to difficulties in enrollment for primary and secondary schools, as well as kindergartens, resulting in a trend of mergers and closures. Similar situations have also emerged in higher education institutions.
A teacher from Jilin, Zhang Fan, expressed to Epoch Times that the continuous population decline has made it difficult for schools in the northeastern region to attract students, a situation that is alarming. He mentioned an example of a town in a prefecture-level city in northeast China that used to have 9 primary schools and 4 junior high schools, but now they are all closed.
Epoch Times’ report also mentioned that school mergers and closures are not only happening in the northeast but also in first-tier cities like Beijing and Shanghai. Respondents believe that factors such as declining birth rates, reduced willingness of young people to marry and have children, economic downturn, and employment pressure are all contributing to the decrease in student enrollment.
The decrease in the number of marriages is also a significant factor contributing to the decline in the birth rate. Data from the CCP’s Ministry of Civil Affairs shows that in the first quarter of 2026, there were 1.697 million registered marriages in mainland China, a decrease of 6.24% compared to the same period last year. The number of registered marriages in mainland China has been on a continuous decline since reaching a peak in 2013.
From the results of the CCP’s official population sample survey to school mergers and closures, declining birth rates, rising death rates, and reduced number of marriages, multiple indicators suggest that the shrinkage and aging of the population in mainland China are still deepening.
There are ongoing doubts from the public that the official figures from the CCP may still underestimate the true population crisis in mainland China.