Amid the United States’ strengthened naval blockade against Iran, Iran is accelerating its efforts to seek exports by utilizing land rail transport to China. However, analysts point out that there is a significant disparity between rail transport capacity and sea transport. Beijing’s true strategic intention is not to rescue the Iranian economy but to help Iran maintain its regime, continue to contain the United States, and turn the Iranian issue into a bargaining chip in negotiations with the U.S.
The U.S. Navy began blocking Iranian ports about three weeks ago in an effort to cut off most of Tehran’s oil exports and block key food imports. The Iranian economy is showing signs of collapse, with the currency, the rial, hitting a historic low.
Against this backdrop, the freight train from Xi’an to Tehran has increased from a weekly service to running every three to four days. Driven by demand, the standard 40-foot container freight rates have surged to around $7,490, an increase of 40%. Altan Dursun, General Manager of the Turkish Silkroad-Avrasya logistics company, told Bloomberg, “The slots for May are all fully booked.”
However, behind the busy train schedule, it cannot hide the structural bottleneck of land transport. Energy News Beat, a professional analysis organization, pointed out that to match the capacity of an oil tanker, Iran would need 25 to 35 complete trains. Currently, the main items transported on this route are containers and high-value goods, with bulk oil facilities being extremely scarce.
China issues expert Wang He told Dajiyuan that in terms of cost and capacity, rail transport cannot compare to sea transport and for Iran, rail transport is just “a drop in the bucket.”
He analyzed that rail transport is more suitable for high-value goods, rather than bulk energy and low-end industrial products.
Senior military commentator Mark told Dajiyuan that while land transport cannot replace sea transport, it can delay the collapse of the Iranian economy. Beijing may adopt a “barter” approach, importing Iranian oil at lower prices, then provide urgently needed civilian goods and some dual-use military-civilian goods to Iran.
“This can ensure Iran’s oil exports and prevent Iran’s oil fields from being completely shut down,” he said, adding that if the United States continues to block Iranian ports for a long time, it may force Iran to shut down a large number of oil wells, which would have a severe destructive effect on the oil fields themselves.
Apart from railways, Iran is also trying routes through Pakistan and Turkey, but this route appears to be more constrained: limited by cumbersome cross-border procedures, outdated infrastructure, and regional security risks, the scale of road transport is very small.
The Washington-based think tank Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) recently analyzed that Beijing is supporting Tehran in five areas: oil trade, chemical supplies, financial cover, satellite imaging, and diplomatic barriers.
On the satellite intelligence front, the U.S. State Department announced on May 8 the sanctions on three Chinese companies, Hangzhou Meentropy Technology, Beijing Earth Eye, and Chang Guang Satellite Technology.
In terms of military materials, China’s support has also raised concerns. In early 2025, China shipped over 1,000 tons of sodium perchlorate to Iran, a key ingredient for manufacturing solid rocket fuel.
Although the U.S. has sanctioned the related Shenzhen Amor Logistics Co Ltd, Chinese enterprises’ delivery activities have not stopped, even during the most intense period when the U.S. military struck Iran’s chemical industry in April this year.
In terms of whether train transport involves military supplies, Wang He believes that while it’s not entirely absent, the scale would not be significant. “More is that the Chinese Communist Party sells some dual-use goods to Iran. If they were to directly sell weapons and ammunition, Beijing wouldn’t have the courage to do so yet.”
He mentioned that the U.S. currently keeps a very close watch on trade involving Iran. Therefore, in the current high-pressure sanction environment, Beijing would not easily take the risk of providing direct military equipment.
Mark said that Beijing is trying to use land transport such as railways to maintain the survival of the Iranian regime. This not only involves energy and trade issues but also relates to the strategic game between China and the U.S.
He believes that the Chinese Communist Party does not want the Iranian theocracy to collapse rapidly, but hopes it can “keep breathing” to continue to contain American strategic resources in the Middle East.
Mark pointed out that Beijing’s core consideration is to prolong negotiations between Iran and the U.S.
He analyzed that the Chinese Communist Party hopes to prolong the Iranian issue because if the U.S. continues to maintain a military presence in the Middle East, it will face high costs and domestic political pressure. “Beijing’s calculation is that the longer Iran drags things out, the more trouble Trump will face.”
Wang He pointed out that the relationship between China and Iran is essentially a mutual exploitation. “On the one hand, the Chinese Communist Party hopes that Iran will continue to contain the U.S., but on the other hand, it does not want to be pulled into greater risks by Iran.”
Talking about China-Iran relations, Mark analyzed that currently, the only country that can meet Iran’s energy export and material needs is China. He pointed out that although Russia has close relations with Iran, its ability to provide assistance is “very limited” due to entanglement in the Ukraine conflict.
“Now, China basically holds Iran’s fate in its hands,” he said. “In this way, China’s control over Iran will be stronger, and its influence on future Iran-U.S. negotiations will also be greater.”
In Mark’s view, the Chinese Communist Party is leveraging its influence over Iran to transform the Iranian issue into a bargaining chip in negotiations with the U.S. He believes that the Iranian issue is likely to become a key issue in the interaction between Xi Jinping and Trump. “Xi Jinping will feel that as long as he can keep the Iranian regime from collapsing, Trump will have to rely on the Chinese Communist Party.”
Wang He stated that Iran has long been dissatisfied with Beijing, especially as many investment promises have yet to be fulfilled. Beijing also harbors suspicions toward Iran.
“Iran has always wanted to drag China into its troubles,” Wang He pointed out. Iran hopes to drag China further into confrontation with the U.S., while Beijing tries to keep a distance while also hoping Iran continues to resist U.S. pressure.”
He believes that “neither side will go all out for the other, but they will continue to exploit each other.”
The U.S. has extended sanctions to the Chinese link in Iran’s oil trade. The U.S. State Department issued a statement on May 1, imposing sanctions on multiple entities, an individual, and a vessel involved in Iranian oil, oil products, and petrochemical trade. The target of this round of sanctions is Qingdao Haiye Oil Terminal Co., Ltd.
In addition to financial sanctions, the U.S. military’s blockade operation continues to advance. The U.S. Central Command stated that on May 6, as part of the blockade order in the Gulf of Oman, Lincoln carrier aircraft fired on a cargo oil tanker flying the Iranian flag, causing it to lose power. The tanker was trying to sail toward an Iranian port at the time. As part of the U.S. blockade operation, a total of 52 vessels were forced to turn back or return to Iranian ports.
The high-pressure stance of the U.S. has already put Beijing under real pressure.
Wang He said: “Now the U.S. has made it clear that anyone who buys Iranian oil will face secondary sanctions.”
He mentioned that the U.S. has already sanctioned Chinese companies, ships, and ports involved in Iranian trade. “If China continues to buy large amounts of Iranian oil, the U.S. tariff pressure will intensify.”
He believes that this risk is “real and powerful” for Beijing. The Huawei incident has made Beijing even more cautious.
Michael Sobolik, a researcher at the Hudson Institute, also believes that Sino-Iranian relations are not indestructible. Beijing has not fully implemented the $400 billion investment agreement signed with Iran within 25 years primarily due to concerns over U.S. secondary sanctions.