Amidst the intense infighting within the Chinese Communist Party, predictions on Polymarket, an international forecasting market, regarding Xi Jinping’s next target for purging are gaining attention. The current Minister of Defense, Dong Jun, is the top bet for the next purge, with a probability of being purged around 20%. This has sparked discussions among internet users.
Polymarket, one of the world’s largest prediction market platforms, launched a topic titled “Who will Xi Jinping purge in 2026?” with options including specific individuals like Dong Jun, Zhang Shengmin, Cai Qi, and others. The trading volume has already exceeded hundreds of thousands of US dollars since it opened on January 29, 2026, Eastern Time.
Polymarket is known for hosting various political and current affairs betting pools, including China-related topics such as “Xi out before 2027?” Users are allowed to buy and sell shares based on probabilities, and settlement occurs according to the outcomes.
The rules for the prediction topic “Who will Xi Jinping purge in 2026?” specify that “purging” refers to the listed individuals being dismissed or resigning from their top political positions during their term, with credible reports consistently confirming the resignation or dismissal as a “purge” due to corruption, bribery, other criminal activities, or lack of political favor. Additionally, the listed individuals must be expelled from the Chinese Communist Party.
Currently, the market believes that Dong Jun has a probability of around 20% of being “purged” by Xi Jinping in 2026, with trading volume exceeding thirty thousand US dollars. The probability and trading volume for Dong Jun are the highest among all options.
Amidst the recent internal turmoil within the CCP military over the past three years, many active generals have fallen from grace. Defense Minister Dong Jun has temporarily survived and recently had the opportunity to visit Vietnam, Russia, Kyrgyzstan, and attend the SCO Defense Ministers Meeting.
Dong Jun was appointed as the new Minister of Defense on December 29, 2023, following the downfall of Li Shangfu. However, he has not followed the usual practice of joining the Central Military Commission and becoming a State Councilor.
Hailing from Shandong, there have been rumors linking Dong Jun’s promotion to Xi Jinping’s wife, Peng Liyuan, as they are both natives of Shandong. Others believe he was recommended by the former Central Military Commission Political Work Department Director, Miao Hua, who was Xi Jinping’s close ally but was expelled from the Party and the military last October.
The Financial Times reported on November 27, 2024, that the CCP authorities were investigating Dong Jun. However, during the subsequent Defense Ministry press conference, spokesperson Wu Qian proactively announced Miao Hua’s “suspension for inspection” and denied the reports of Dong Jun being under investigation.
Independent commentator Du Zheng predicted in the Taiwan media UpMedia that under the renewed intervention of Xi Jinping’s wife, Peng Liyuan, in military personnel matters, Dong Jun, backed by the “Wife’s Help”, might be a candidate for another Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission, or at least become a Commission member. However, after three years of turmoil, it remains uncertain if the CMC can be fully staffed with new appointees in the coming year.
Social media user “Toronto Square Face” shared screenshots related to Polymarket’s “Who will Xi Jinping purge in 2026?” discussion, sparking heated debates. Comments include speculation on various officials’ fates and the unpredictable nature of power dynamics within the CCP.
According to Polymarket’s data on “Who will Xi Jinping purge in 2026?” betting trends, the Chairman of the National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), Wang Huning, also has surprisingly high odds of being purged, with a probability of over ten percent.
Many netizens are placing bets on Xi’s confidant and Director of the General Office of the CCP Central Committee, Cai Qi, with comments like “I’ll put my money on Cai Qi who claims ‘I’m just the old man with white hair’,” and “Betting on Vice Commander Cai Qi.” The speculation around Cai Qi’s future highlights the uncertainties surrounding high-ranking officials in the current political climate.
The Economist recently suggested that Cai Qi, who occupies multiple significant positions, may actually be the second most powerful figure within the CCP, surpassing Premier Li Qiang. However, this dual role might also expose Cai Qi to the risk of being purged by Xi Jinping.
In conclusion, the speculative atmosphere surrounding potential political purges within the Chinese leadership reflects the volatile nature of power struggles and shifting alliances within the country’s political elite. The ongoing speculation on Polymarket and public discourse underscore the heightened interest and scrutiny surrounding the inner workings of the Chinese Communist Party under Xi Jinping’s leadership.