The International Energy Agency (IEA) Executive Director Fatih Birol said Thursday that the remaining aviation fuel supply in Europe may only last for about six weeks. If the ongoing conflict in Iran continues to disrupt oil supply, flight cancellations could soon become a reality.
Birol, speaking from his office in Paris, France, in an interview with the Associated Press on Thursday, described this as “the largest energy crisis we have ever faced.”
The head of the International Energy Agency pointed out that due to the conflict in Iran, the vital shipping route of the Strait of Hormuz has effectively been closed for a month and a half, disrupting crucial supplies of oil, natural gas, and many other essential resources. This disruption will not only have a significant impact on the global economy, but also be increasingly detrimental to global economic growth and inflation the longer it lasts.
The Turkish economist and energy expert, who has led the International Energy Agency since 2015, stated that the consequences will manifest as “higher gasoline prices, higher natural gas prices, and higher electricity prices.”
During peacetime, around 20% of global oil trade flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Birol warned that if this waterway is not reopened within a few weeks, the impact on global energy supply will intensify.
“In Europe, we may only have about six weeks of aviation fuel left. If we cannot reopen the Strait of Hormuz…I can tell you, we will soon hear news of flights from city A to city B being cancelled due to lack of aircraft fuel,” he told the Associated Press.
KLM Royal Dutch Airlines has announced plans to cut 160 round-trip flights to and from Amsterdam Airport Schiphol next month, accounting for approximately 1% of the company’s European routes. KLM attributed this decision to the rising cost of aviation fuel, stating that operating certain flights are “no longer financially viable.”
Airline passengers have already been impacted. In addition to flight cancellations, some airlines are raising ticket prices and imposing additional fees.
Birol also noted that even if the US and Israel reach a peace agreement with Iran, it may take several months to restore energy production to pre-conflict levels due to damage to energy infrastructure during the war.
He underscored the shadow of geopolitics, expressing bewilderment that “hundreds of gunmen” (apparently referring to the Iranian military) are able to hold the global economy hostage.
“Energy and geopolitics have always been intertwined,” Birol said, “but I have never seen such a dark and long shadow of geopolitics.”
(The content is based on reporting from the Associated Press)