The Wall Street Journal published an editorial on Tuesday (April 14) supporting Trump’s move to block Iran. The editorial cited a study that stated if the US military cuts off Iran’s oil export routes, Iran would have nowhere to store its excess oil after just over ten days. Iran would then be forced to shut down oil wells, resulting in severe losses and causing the country to lose billions of dollars in revenue annually.
The editorial pointed out that the US military blockade would pose a crisis for Iran, with immediate economic losses. If the blockade continues, it will pose a threat to the Iranian regime.
Since Monday (April 13), the US Navy has blocked Iranian ports, preventing ships from trading with Iran through the Strait of Hormuz. On Thursday (April 16), the US military further expanded the blockade, authorizing boarding, searching, and even seizure of vessels transporting Iranian oil or goods globally.
The editorial mentioned a study by the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) analyst Miad Maleki, estimating that the blockade would result in Iran losing $435 million in economic activity per day and force the closure of Iranian oil fields within two weeks.
Maleki, who led the US Treasury’s sanctions on Iran until 2025, said that if Iran loses its export routes, the excess oil production would fill all of Iran’s storage facilities in about 13 days. Iran would then have to close oil wells, causing significant losses and losing billions of dollars in revenue annually.
“Iran’s economic structure heavily relies on transit routes and energy exports through the Persian Gulf, making it increasingly unsustainable for Iran to resist economically under the US maritime blockade,” he wrote in his latest research.
So far, the US Central Command has stated that over a dozen warships are executing the mission, and no vessels have breached the blockade, with the US military capable of maintaining this status quo. Meanwhile, the US military has also started mine-sweeping operations in the region.
FDD’s other researchers, Elaine Dezenski and Daniel Swift, concluded through economic modeling that the current war has caused Iran’s economic losses to exceed 40% of its pre-war GDP. This conclusion is based on the International Monetary Fund’s prediction of a 6.1% economic decline in Iran for 2026, which they believe is a conservative estimate.
In a little over ten days, Iran’s economy will feel the impact of the collapse of oil exports. This includes the uncompromising Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which extracts about half of Iran’s oil revenue. The Iranian regime is well aware that all of this poses a threat to its survival.
As a result, Iran may experience shortages in supplies and intensifying inflation domestically. Prior to the war, Iran’s inflation rate had already exceeded 50%, with food inflation soaring into the triple digits. Since 2018, Iran’s currency has depreciated by over 97%, and without incoming foreign exchange, its exchange rate may suffer further.
To maintain its regime, Iran has cut off internet access since the start of the war, preventing the population from accessing real information from the outside world, which has also crippled e-commerce and financial activities. The destruction of Iran’s production capacity, especially in steel, petrochemicals, and related industries, may lead to layoffs even without a blockade.
Iran’s latest budget proposal has called for increased taxes on the public. The chaos described above suggests that the US economic strikes against the Iranian regime will soon have an immediate impact, and the longer Iran delays negotiations, the longer the blockade will continue, resulting in greater losses for itself.