In recent years, there has been a negative population growth in many parts of China, leading to an exacerbation of regional differentiation trends. Among them, the population in the northeastern region continues to decline, with a cumulative decrease of approximately 4 million people in the past five years, making it one of the regions with more prominent population loss in the country.
According to official statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics, from 2021 to 2024, the population in the three northeastern provinces decreased by over 1 million people per year, with Heilongjiang Province decreasing by 280,000, Liaoning Province by 240,000, and Jilin Province by about 206,000.
In 2025, Heilongjiang Province saw a decrease of around 280,000 people, Liaoning Province decreased by 240,000, and Jilin Province decreased by approximately 206,000, with a total decrease of around 726,000 people in the three provinces.
In total, over the five-year period from 2021 to 2025, the population in the three northeastern provinces decreased by more than 4 million people, with the current resident population size dropping to approximately 94.28 million.
Looking at a longer time frame, the population shrinkage trend has long been evident. Census data from the seventh national population census shows that the northeast is the region with the most severe population loss nationwide. The data reveals that between 2010 and 2020, a total of 10.99 million people were lost in the region, with Heilongjiang losing 6.46 million, Jilin losing 3.38 million, and Liaoning losing 1.15 million.
Due to continuous population loss, the term “Northeast-ification” has become synonymous with population decline on the internet.
Reported on April 28th by “City Finance and Economics,” the decrease in the northeastern population is primarily due to two factors: outmigration and natural decrease.
Regarding population movement, a significant number of people from the northeast are moving to more economically developed areas. Census data shows that the areas with the most inflow of people from the northeast include Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangdong Province.
In terms of net outmigration, Heilongjiang has consistently been in a state of net outmigration, with a net outflow of 138,000 people in 2024, and last year’s data has not been released.
The massive outflow of young people from the northeast has led to a high aging population and low birth rates, resulting in a significant natural population decline.
According to international standards, a population aged 65 and above accounting for over 7% indicates an aging society, while exceeding 14% signifies a deeply aging society.
According to the data published in the 2025 China Statistical Yearbook by the National Bureau of Statistics of the Communist Party of China, 19 regions in the country have entered a state of deeply aging society, with Liaoning, Shanghai, Jilin, Heilongjiang, and Chongqing ranking among the top five.
Furthermore, during the same period, birth rates in the three northeastern provinces are at the bottom, with Heilongjiang ranking last nationwide, Jilin second to last, and Liaoning third. This further intensifies the natural population decrease.
The ongoing population outflow from the northeast is primarily due to insufficient industries to support employment needs and inadequate income competitiveness to retain local residents.
It is worth noting that Heilongjiang and Jilin have a net outflow of population, while Liaoning is the only northeastern region with a net inflow of population.
Analyzing the structure of population sources, two main characteristics are observed in the population movement within the northeastern region: the close interaction between the eastern part of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region and the northeast, serving as an important source of population flow.
Moreover, there is frequent population movement among the three northeastern provinces, but with notable differences in attractiveness. Liaoning Province exhibits the strongest absorption capacity for surrounding populations, with the population size coming from Jilin and Heilongjiang provinces markedly higher than the mutual flow between the last two provinces.
However, Liaoning’s population inflow is limited and still struggles to offset the impact of natural decrease. Data shows that in 2025, the scale of natural population decrease in Liaoning is still higher than the net inflow of people, with the overall population showing a declining trend.
The main reason for the current population decline in the northeast has shifted from outmigration to natural decrease, with the number of births significantly lower than deaths. Taking Heilongjiang and Liaoning as examples, even though Liaoning showed a slight net inflow of population in 2025, the natural decrease was larger, leading to an overall population decline.
Against this backdrop, there has been a shift in the logic of population competition from “preventing outflow” to “competing for limited inflow.” The reason Liaoning is the only province in the northeast with a net inflow of population is not due to having nationwide attractiveness but rather reflects regional relative advantages.
Moreover, the slowdown in economic growth also affects population movement. Data indicates that the GDP growth rate in Liaoning was 3.7% in 2025, further slowing to 2.8% in the first quarter of 2026.
Analysis suggests that, under the backdrop of weaker economic growth momentum, the challenge lies in the absorption capacity for employment, leading to uncertainties in the future population movement pattern.
Overall, the net inflow in Liaoning more reflects internal population redistribution in the northeast rather than new population growth. In general, the northeastern region is still in a phase of population contraction.
Industry experts point out that given the current situation, the overall trend of population decline in the northeastern region is unlikely to change in the short term.