In the first three quarters of 2025, the GDP growth of Guangdong, a major economic province in China, increased by 4.1% year-on-year, once again lower than the national average. This marks several consecutive quarters of Guangdong lagging behind the country, indicating a rare slowdown in the “economic engine,” with the latest statement from the top leader of the CCP saying it is “acceptable.”
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics of the Chinese Communist Party, the national GDP growth for the first three quarters, calculated at constant prices, increased by 5.2%. However, there have been long-standing doubts about the accuracy of official CCP data, with its credibility widely questioned.
In terms of GDP growth, among the ten major economic provinces, Guangdong (4.1%) lags behind the national average. This has been a recurring trend for Guangdong over multiple quarters. In fact, as early as the first quarter of this year, the economic growth rate of Guangdong was only 4.1%, failing to keep pace with the nationwide average growth.
As a manufacturing powerhouse long hailed as the “economic locomotive of China,” the lackluster economic performance of Guangdong reflects deep-seated issues in the overall economic structure of China. Declining external demand coupled with weak domestic consumption has put unprecedented pressure on this leading region of reform and opening up. The consistently lower GDP growth rate compared to the national average is a clear indication of the actual state of the Chinese economy.
In 2024, Guangdong’s economic growth rate was only 3.5%, failing to meet the target for the third consecutive year and significantly below the national 5% growth rate. Questions have been raised by the public, as to how the CCP authorities arrived at the average economic growth of 5% when Guangdong’s growth is only 3.5%.
Guangdong’s economy has long relied on exports and manufacturing. Products like electronics, machinery, and home appliances from cities like Shenzhen, Dongguan, and Foshan are crucial pillars of China’s foreign trade. However, amidst global industrial realignments and geopolitical tensions, the export-oriented economy faces severe challenges.
Political and economic commentator Wang He pointed out that Guangdong’s plight lies in the vulnerability of its export-driven industries amid the “deglobalization” trend. While Guangdong has been the world’s factory for decades with low-cost manufacturing and an extensive foreign trade network, this model is no longer sustainable.
Furthermore, Guangdong’s industrial structure imbalance severely constrains its sustainable economic development. Insufficient domestic demand is another issue. In just the first half of 2025, Jiangsu’s total retail sales of consumer goods reached 2.39 trillion yuan, surpassing Guangdong’s 2.29 trillion yuan.
With Guangdong’s economic growth rate persistently below the national average, the Guangdong Provincial Government’s work report analyzed, stating, “Especially with a high degree of economic openness, it is more directly affected by external environmental impacts. Insufficient effective demand, weak social expectations, and operational difficulties for some enterprises. The cultivation of new driving forces needs to be strengthened, and the issue of the bottleneck of key core technologies remains prominent. The unbalanced regional development between urban and rural areas has not fundamentally reversed.”
Wang He’s article suggests that Guangdong’s economic troubles are not solely economic but also encompass issues in CCP policies and systems, preventing Guangdong’s economy from undergoing transformation and upgrading in the past 20 years. As long as the CCP exists, this will be the fate of the CCP economy.
The Financial Times reported that Alicia Garcia-Herrero, Chief Asia-Pacific Economist at the French foreign trade bank, pointed out the significant impact of tariffs on Guangdong, as Guangdong enterprises are at the core of the US-China trade war.
Well-known real estate companies in China, including Evergrande, Country Garden, Vanke, and Greenland, have their headquarters in Guangdong. However, the recovery of house prices in Guangdong has been slower compared to other provinces. The steep decline in property prices has weakened consumer and business confidence, with retail sales in Guangdong falling below the national average.
“The situation in Guangdong is no longer as promising as before,” Garcia-Herrero said. “Indeed, there are some problems in certain areas.”
Credit rating analyst Sam Kwok mentioned that the overall economic conditions are poor, but Guangdong Province still has tax obligations.