Facing stagnant economic growth and the concentrated exposure of local debt risks, the Chinese Communist Party once again threw out the phrase “the new journey is a new Long March” during this year’s “two sessions.” The general consensus is that this term is not about development planning but rather a signal to society of “entering tough times” amid the continued accumulation of systemic pressures.
Recently, official Chinese state media such as People’s Daily have published a series of articles emphasizing the “new Long March” and the “modernization path,” showcasing the expansion of high-speed rail networks, large-scale infrastructure construction, and the Belt and Road Initiative as manifestations of institutional advantages. However, such narratives have sparked significant divergence in public opinion.
Chinese political commentator Yao Chang (pseudonym) told reporters, “When the CCP starts repeatedly emphasizing the ‘Long March,’ it signifies that it can no longer provide society with the expectation of ‘good times’ but rather share risks with the entire population. Currently, local finances are tight, local government debts continue to accumulate, local government revenues cannot cover expenses, and even profitable enterprises are subjected to so-called ‘distant fishing.’ The so-called ‘new Long March’ is essentially finding political mobilization language for the economic downturn.”
Official Chinese state media articles stated, “To accomplish the tasks of the ’14th Five-Year Plan,’ it is necessary to deal with a more complex environment and solve deeper contradictions.” They also claimed that the “new journey is a glorious and dream-filled journey,” while suggesting that certain infrastructure projects are “not profit-oriented.”
Yao Chang stated that the above narrative incorporates current economic issues into the “Long March” storytelling, providing explanatory room for slowing growth through terms such as “complex environment” and “deep-seated contradictions.” At the same time, emphasizing infrastructure investments not driven by profit aims to rationalize continuous resource allocation. This shift in narrative reflects a transition from growth-oriented policies to stress management and risk tolerance.
Beijing scholar Yin Teng (pseudonym), who has long been concerned with China’s macroeconomy, told reporters that there has been a noticeable shift in the official Chinese narratives in recent years: “The past emphasis on high-speed growth has now been replaced by repeated mentions of ‘complex environment’ and ‘deep-seated contradictions,’ indicating a shift in policy emphasis towards maintaining stability. The so-called ‘new Long March’ seems more like buying time for systemic risks.”
Yin Teng stated, “The authorities’ emphasis on difficulties and pressures indicates that the space for economic growth has significantly narrowed. This year, authorities expect GDP growth to be around 4.5%, requiring society to bear higher costs. The shift from emphasizing ‘development dividends’ to emphasizing the ‘Long March’ reflects current pressures at a higher level than in the past two decades.”
The Chinese Communist Party’s People’s Daily published an article on March 18 titled “Profoundly Grasping the Era’s Requirements of Establishing and Practicing a Correct Political Achievement View.” It proposed launching a party-wide “learning and education campaign on establishing and practicing a correct political achievement view” and warned against “image projects,” “achievement projects,” and the addition of hidden local debts, with emphasis on strengthening constraints through assessment mechanisms.
Independent scholar Cheng Guang (pseudonym) told reporters, “In the past, local governments relied on debt issuance to drive projects, creating so-called growth. Now, with funding sources tightening, official media have concentrated on emphasizing constraints. It’s not a change in ideology but rather a significant contraction of fiscal space. The risks of local government debt continue to accumulate, and the authorities can only delay the exposure of problems by controlling expenditures.”
Since January 2026, the phrase “tightening belts” has significantly increased in official Chinese narratives. Mr. Ma, a technical person who has been tracking the high-frequency terms of the CCP, told this newspaper that this change reflects a phased reversal in the fiscal situation.
Through data analysis, Mr. Ma pointed out that related expressions showed a phased increase in the first quarter of 2026:
January “internal circulation” phase: Related expressions mainly appeared in policy documents and meetings, with Xinhua mentioning around 10 to 20 times, People’s Daily around 8 to 15 times, and the Ministry of Finance website about 3 to 5 times, with limited grassroots impact.
February “pressure transmission” phase: With continued manifestation of local debt issues, related expressions significantly increased, with Xinhua rising to 15 to 30 times, People’s Daily around 10 to 25 times, and concurrent increase in Ministry of Finance publications. Mr. Ma stated, “This phase has transitioned to specific constraints requirements.”
March “two sessions” phase: Related expressions further concentrated, with Xinhua mentioning around 40 to 80 times, People’s Daily around 30 to 60 times, and intense policy releases from the Ministry of Finance.
Mr. Ma believes that “tightening belts” has shifted from technical fiscal requirements to assessment standards, reflecting that fiscal pressure has entered an institutional level.
Chinese political commentator Yao Chang (pseudonym) stated that such data changes can be seen as important indicators for observing the fiscal situation. He said, “The frequency of mentions in March has significantly increased, coinciding with the narrative of the ‘new Long March,’ indicating that the authorities are using unified discourse to address economic and fiscal pressures.”