The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has been continuously introducing visa-free policies for multiple countries, but it has failed to attract Western tourists to visit China. Analysts believe that China’s economy has fallen into a severe recession, leading the country to become more closed off again, and the key reason behind this is political.
Recently, the CCP has unilaterally opened visa-free access to European and American countries. Authorities recently extended visa-free transit to 54 countries, leading netizens to comment, “They are really anxious.”
However, Beijing Capital International Airport remains desolate. Zheng Yuhuang, director of the marketing department at Tsinghua University, recently released a video comparing the international passenger traffic at Beijing Capital International Airport and Osaka Airport, revealing the sparse number of people in the international departure lounge at Beijing Capital Airport’s T3, giving a sense of emptiness.
He contrasted the bustling tax-free shops at Osaka Airport’s international departures with the scene at Beijing Capital Airport, wondering, “Where have the foreigners gone? If they are not willing to acknowledge even the disparity, how can they correct the mistakes?”
Meanwhile, countries like Japan, Vietnam, Thailand, and India have been welcoming more and more foreign visitors. Taking Japan as an example, the Japan National Tourism Organization released estimated data last month, stating that from January to November 2023, the number of foreign visitors to Japan reached a high of 33.3799 million, surpassing the previous record of 31.88 million in 2019.
On the other hand, China’s inbound foreign visitor numbers this year remain significantly lower than in 2019.
According to a WeChat post from Beijing Capital International Airport, as of November 20, 2023, the airport’s annual passenger throughput exceeded 60 million, with domestic passengers accounting for 78%, representing a 17% year-on-year increase; while international and regional passengers accounted for 22%, representing a 103% year-on-year increase.
In other words, in 2023, China’s international and regional passenger numbers were only 60 million * 22% = 13.2 million. Based on the publicly available data on inbound tourism received by travel agencies nationwide in the first three quarters of 2024, the total number of tourists received by travel agencies nationwide was only 5.05 million. In the third quarter, which is the peak travel season, the number was less than 2 million.
Zheng Yuhuang appeals to make every possible effort to expand openness, believing that China’s future development depends on the extent of its openness. However, expanding openness is not merely achieved through some visa-free entries but also includes cultural and media openness, openness in areas like the internet, finance, and education. Without these, foreigners and foreign capital will be taken away by neighboring countries like India and Vietnam that can provide such openness, making it difficult for China to overcome its current economic difficulties.
It is noteworthy that people no longer blindly trust official data but believe in what they see. Netizens have expressed their agreement with the empty airport terminals in China, saying, “When I went to Kuala Lumpur airport in Malaysia, it was crowded and lively, but returning to Kunming airport was deserted.” “This year during summer and winter vacations, traveling between Beijing and Guangzhou airports, there were barely any people.” “Seeing Pudong Airport so empty.” “A few days ago, going through customs at Beijing Capital Airport T3, it felt really desolate. There were hardly any international flights, the vast T3 was mostly empty, and most of the duty-free shops were closed. Compared to 2019, it’s really deserted.” “During the summer vacation going to the USA, at noon in Beijing Capital Airport’s international departure area, you couldn’t even find a place to eat.”
“Seeing with our own eyes, feeling pain in our hearts,” “You are rejecting the world, and the world is rejecting you.” “Even the English signs have been reduced.” “With no internet access, how can tourists come?” “The flow of people, goods, and capital are important indicators of economic vitality.” “The consequences of catching spies.” “The day Google left was the beginning of the decline.”
Regarding the reasons for the decline in foreign visitors, netizens believe, “Nowadays, you rarely see foreigners even in first-tier cities, as the pandemic has scared them off for three years.” “With no internet access upon entry, no WeChat Pay, no Google Maps, how do you expect foreigners to enter? In contrast, landing overseas from China is as convenient as it is domestically.”
“Beijing’s streets frequently check IDs, passengers entering buses in Beijing have to show their IDs or be inspected, hotels are divided into sections for domestic and foreign guests…” “Here they take fingerprints, there they scan faces, security checks are everywhere, who would want to come?” “Foreigners entering China must report to the local police station within 24 hours… it’s too troublesome, that’s why people don’t come.”
Mr. Zhang, a Chinese Canadian who returned to China last year to handle affairs for several months, shared his personal experiences and feelings with reporters.
In September last year, Mr. Zhang flew out from Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport at 9 in the morning, with very few people. He first flew to South Korea, then Japan, and back to Canada, finding the travel experience in South Korea excellent, but he preferred Japan where there were noticeably more foreign tourists, especially Europeans and Americans.
“There were many foreigners in South Korea, especially on Myeongdong Street. In Tokyo, there were also many foreigners, much more than in China, as foreigners prefer to travel to democratic countries!” Comparing his travels in China, he recalls that in late January last year, he hardly saw any foreigners on the Shanghai Bund or Nanjing Road, and there were even fewer in Beijing, where he couldn’t see any foreigners at Qianmen Gate.
“I remember back in 2014 when I visited Qianmen, there were so many foreigners. I saw foreigners holding travel guides and even asking for directions. It left a strong impression on me,” he said.
Mr. Zhang believes that China has indeed regressed, and no matter how many visa policies are changed, such as offering a 10-day visa-free stay or 144-hour visa-free access, these are only superficial changes and cannot fundamentally attract foreigners. “They can’t access the internet; payment is difficult. The ‘little pinks’ always say you can use cash, but even if they accept cash, they can’t provide change. For example, in bubble tea shops, hotels, taxis, if you give them a 100-yuan note, they might not be able to give you change.”
In recent years, many foreign businesses have withdrawn from China. Mr. Zhang believes this is mainly due to fear of the CCP’s National Security Law, as if saying a single word could label them as foreign hostile forces. He himself has been threatened with reports, feeling that freedom of speech is regressing, where speaking the truth can lead to being reported, reminiscent of the revealing and criticism of the 1960s and 70s.
A good friend of Mr. Zhang made comments online about boycotting the Beijing Winter Olympics and was invited for a chat with authorities. His friend told him, “I don’t really want you to withdraw investments from the mainland because how many people will lose their jobs? How many will lose a job that respects labor and a brand that respects consumers? But I also don’t want you to invest in the mainland because I don’t want you to be suppressed and excluded in the unfair competition prevailing in the mainland!”
Mr. Zhang had a friend at Guangzhou Customs who felt that the efficiency of Chinese customs was very slow, with about 400 people waiting in line, mostly from countries along the ‘Belt and Road’ initiative. Only three or four out of twelve checkpoints were open, and he waited for nearly an hour. He described the smooth entry process in Taiwan’s customs compared to China’s, where Chinese officials interrogated him and scrutinized his passport.
“He said 85% don’t want to go to China again, 15% do. The reason he returned was mainly to visit his grandmother in her 80s. 90% still want to go to Japan again, 10% don’t, with the 10% referring to concerns about earthquakes or tsunamis in Japan.”
A retired scholar from New York, Steve, told a reporter from Dajiyuan that his foreign teacher friends in China have already left the country as they felt unsafe in China. Previously, they would frequently connect to discuss English teaching issues.
Tian Xie, a lifelong professor at the Darla Moore School of Business at the University of South Carolina in the United States, stated in an interview with Dajiyuan that China’s economy is currently clearly in a severe recession, possibly heading towards a major depression, indicating that the recession is likely to continue for some time, at least until 2025 or 2026, without a quick recovery.
Manifesting in various industries, the financial stock market struggles to revive; banks face a large number of bad debts and loan defaults, mortgage loans for real estate are being cut off, and the interest rates on Chinese national debt have dropped to their lowest levels. Manufacturing industries are either collapsing or relocating abroad, a process that the CCP cannot reverse. Electric vehicles, photovoltaic products, and solar energy are also facing opposition from foreign countries. Therefore, China lacks new economic growth points, and its economy is declining. The CCP continues to print money, leading to significant inflation of essential goods in the future.
“In theory, if China truly had a GDP growth rate of 4% to 5%, it wouldn’t have an unemployment rate as high as 20% or even up to 47%. During economic growth, a considerable number of workers and employees must be hired; it is impossible to have both economic growth and extensive unemployment simultaneously, making China’s GDP figures completely unreliable,” Tian Xie stated.
He further analyzed that during China’s economic decline, the CCP’s hostility towards foreigners and foreign businesses is also very apparent. Foreign businesses feel discriminated against and have to deal with CCP interference and destruction on national security matters, forcing them to establish Communist Party branches within companies. All of these factors have led to the withdrawal of foreign businesses and changes in tourists’ views of China, causing them to avoid visiting the country. Combined with the CCP’s concealment of the pandemic and support for Russia, China’s international image has increasingly deteriorated. These factors contribute to China no longer being an appealing destination for Western tourists.
Many netizens bluntly express that it is “too late” for China to reopen or “too delayed.” Mr. Zhang believes that if China truly embarks on reform and opens up to the world again, along with political reform, it is not too late. However, Xi Jinping won’t stop; he will continue down this path and keep reversing course.
Tian Xie believes that domestic scholars are still cautious in their speech, emphasizing that real openness involves political openness. If the CCP’s rule disintegrates and political openness is achieved, then other aspects like economics, culture, society, and exchange won’t be problematic.
“The key to China returning to a closed-off and more controlled state lies in political reasons. However, the political opening or reform that the CCP dares not touch or even think about is essential. Therefore, without political reforms, openness in culture won’t be possible for China,” Tian Xie concluded.