Washington non-partisan think tank “Council on Criminal Justice” (CCJ) released its latest report on Thursday, January 22nd, pointing out that the murder rate in the United States in 2025 (covering all levels of administrative divisions) is expected to decrease to around 4.0 per 100,000 people, marking the lowest level traceable in law enforcement or public health statistics since 1900.
The report, based on an analysis of crime trends in 40 major cities, shows that the murder rate in large cities in 2025 (10.4 per 100,000 people) decreased by 21% compared to 2024, and significantly decreased by 44% from the peak during the 2021 pandemic period (18.6 per 100,000 people), making it the “largest single-year decline” in recorded murder rates. The final year-end data for the nation will be officially released later by the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI).
CCJ stated that among the 13 categories of crimes covered in the report, 11 showed a downward trend in 2025, with 9 categories showing a decrease of over 10%. Carjacking and shoplifting, which had increased post-pandemic, have seen significant declines: reported carjacking cases have declined by 61% since 2023, and shoplifting has decreased by 10% compared to 2024. In contrast, drug crimes are the only crime type that increased during this period, rising by 7%, while overall sexual assault cases remained stable.
The trend is consistent at the city level as well. The aggregated results from 35 cities show an overall decrease in the murder rate by about 21%, with 31 cities experiencing declines, including Denver, Omaha in Nebraska, and Washington with nearly a 40% decrease. A few cities saw a rebound, including a 16% increase in Little Rock, Arkansas, a 2% increase in Fort Worth, Texas, and a 1% increase in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.
The White House stated, “This significant change is directly attributed to President Trump’s unwavering commitment to ‘make America safe again’,” thanks to strengthened border control, the deployment of a “whole-of-government offensive,” and the outcomes of enhancing street security.
The statement also mentioned that in addition to the historic low in murder cases last year, rape cases, robbery cases, cases of serious assault, fatal shooting incidents (lowest since 2015), line of duty deaths of law enforcement officers (lowest in 80 years), traffic accident deaths, and drug overdose deaths have all seen significant decreases.
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt stated on social media, attributing the achievements to the systemic crackdown on violent crime and illegal immigration crime, emphasizing the President’s commitment to “Promise Made. Promise Kept.”
Since President Trump returned to the White House last year, the government has implemented a series of tough law enforcement measures, focusing on combating gangs and transnational drug trafficking groups, dismantling drug smuggling networks, and strengthening security at the southern border.
According to an announcement by the U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) on January 16, in December 2025, the Southwest border “once again reached a historic low in the number of border interception incidents, achieving zero parole release for the eighth consecutive month.” In contrast, the previous administration released a total of 7,041 people in December 2024.
In addition, Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) arrested around 7,000 gang members in 2025.
Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Secretary Kristi Noem stated on January 20 on social media that in President Trump’s first year back in office, about 3 million illegal immigrants departed, including around 2.2 million voluntary departures and over 675,000 deportations. Moreover, the amount of Fentanyl smuggling across the southern border has decreased by more than half compared to the same period in 2024. She also noted that the quantity of cocaine seized by the U.S. Coast Guard within a year is enough to “kill more than 177 million Americans.”
In line with the CCJ report, FBI Director Kash Patel recently posted on social media, along with official charts summarizing the agency’s nationwide law enforcement achievements in 2025, describing the year as “a year of historical significance.”
According to FBI data, the nationwide murder rate decreased by around 20% in 2025, and federal-level arrest operations doubled compared to the previous year. In the fight against drugs, over 2,000 kilograms of Fentanyl were seized over the year, a 31% increase, with the estimated potential lethal dosage threatening over 130 million people.
In the field of child protection and combating cybercrime, the FBI stated that they successfully rescued over 6,000 child victims throughout the year and shut down over 3.8 million accounts related to pedophilia on the dark web. In tackling organized crime, about 1,800 gangs and criminal organizations were dismantled during the year, a 210% increase in related achievements.
The FBI pointed out that the combined efforts of the aforementioned nationwide special operations led to approximately 56,000 arrests and the confiscation of 4,061 illegal firearms. Patel emphasized that these achievements were the result of cooperation among federal, state, and local law enforcement agencies and that efforts to combat violent crime and drug crime will continue to be strengthened.
CCJ Senior Research Fellow Ernesto Lopez stated that the overall decrease in crime rates, especially the reduction in murder cases, is “encouraging,” noting that the murder rate has been on a downward trend since the late 2000s.
CCJ President and Chief Executive Officer Adam Gelb stated that it is not easy to “precisely pinpoint what led to the decrease in crime,” but he noted that significant changes have taken place in criminal justice policies, various programs, and public discourse in recent years. Moreover, advancements in crime investigation and enforcement techniques, as well as profound changes in societal, economic, and cultural aspects, have all been factors intertwining to influence trends simultaneously.
The Council on Criminal Justice (CCJ) is a non-partisan criminal justice research institution in the United States, established in 2017 and headquartered in Washington. It mainly tracks crime trends in major cities across the United States through data analysis, and its research reports are often cited by mainstream media as important references before official statistics are released.