In November, China’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for the manufacturing sector was 49.2%, staying below the boom-bust line for the eighth consecutive month. The non-manufacturing Business Activity Index dropped by 0.6 percentage points from the previous month to 49.5%, also falling below the boom-bust line.
According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China on November 30th, the manufacturing PMI for November was 49.2%, a slight increase of 0.2% from October, but still marking the eighth straight month below the boom-bust line.
Breaking down by enterprise size, the PMI for large enterprises was 49.3%, down by 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating contraction and falling below the boom-bust line. The PMI for medium-sized and small enterprises were 48.9% and 49.1% respectively, with increases of 0.2% and 2.0% compared to the previous month but remaining below the boom-bust line.
In terms of category indices, among the five components of the manufacturing PMI, the Supplier Delivery Time Index was above the boom-bust line, while the Production Index, New Orders Index, Raw Material Inventory Index, and Employment Index were all below the boom-bust line.
Wang Qing, Chief Macro Analyst at Orient Securities, pointed out that factors such as the continued adjustment in the real estate market, weak domestic consumption and investment demand, and the impact of the fourth-quarter US high-tariff policies on global trade and Chinese exports have kept the manufacturing PMI in contraction territory in November. He also noted a downward trend in December’s manufacturing PMI.
Orient Securities stated that easing tensions in US-China trade relations may drive a rebound in the manufacturing PMI for November, but price indices still indicate differentiation, reflecting insufficient downstream demand. Risks lie in growth-stabilizing policies falling short of expectations, downside risks in the real estate sector, and unexpected pace of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
Additionally, the Business Activity Index for non-manufacturing was 49.5%, down by 0.6 percentage points from the previous month. The Comprehensive PMI Output Index for the month was 49.7%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, marking the first time since 2023 that it dropped below the boom-bust line.