Deoleo, the world’s largest olive oil producer based in Spain, has informed CNBC that the most challenging period in the industry’s history seems to be coming to an end. It is expected that the price of the “liquid gold” olive oil will decrease significantly in the coming months, almost halving from its historical peak.
Olive oil is considered a superfood in Mediterranean cuisine. Recent years have seen severe impacts on olive harvests in Southern Europe due to extreme weather conditions and drought, ultimately leading to soaring olive oil prices. This has shocked industry professionals and consumers alike, raising concerns about food safety and increased rates of theft.
However, industry forecasts for the 2024-2025 season show significant improvements in harvests, especially in major production countries such as Spain, Greece, and Tunisia, where olive prices have already started to decline.
Miguel Ángel Guzmán, Chief Sales Officer of Deoleo, told CNBC via email, “The outlook for the next few months is positive. Market stabilization is expected to begin as new harvests progress and supply increases, gradually returning to normal.” Guzmán added that there is still uncertainty in the market until the olive harvest for the 2024-2025 season.
According to data from the agricultural and food market information company Expana, as of November 6th, the price of extra virgin olive oil in Andalusia, Spain, was €6 per kilogram (approximately $6.33), a decrease of about 19% from the previous month and nearly 35% from the historical peak of €9.2 in January.
With Spain accounting for over 40% of global olive oil production, it serves as a key reference for global prices.
Guzmán mentioned, “If the weather and harvest conditions remain stable in the coming weeks, it is expected that prices at the source will begin to ease between November, December, and January.” He added, “If everything progresses normally, especially if rainfall continues to be favorable for production, we may see a downward trend in prices in 2025.”
Kyle Holland, a senior market reporter for Expana specializing in oilseeds and oils, stated that this season’s olive yield in Spain is expected to be around 1.3 million metric tons, nearly doubling from the previous season’s 670,000 to 680,000 metric tons.
Holland also noted that besides Spain, Greece, Tunisia, and Turkey are expected to have a bountiful olive harvest, with the quality of olives appearing to be “very good.”
Deoleo company indicated that olive oil prices should decrease to around €5 per liter, a significant drop from the peak of €9 to €10 commonly seen in Spanish supermarkets this year.