Central Military Commission Vice Chairman Zhang Youxia’s arrest has sparked strong reactions from various sectors, with the unusual silence in the party media and the military’s lack of response causing speculation. Analysts believe that Xi Jinping’s departure from party norms could lead to significant trouble, raising questions about the longevity of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).
On January 24th, the Chinese Ministry of National Defense and the PLA Daily announced that Vice Chairman Zhang Youxia and Chief of the Joint Staff Department Liu Zhenli were under investigation for “serious disciplinary violations.” However, there was no specific information provided about the actual “crimes” for which Zhang Youxia was arrested. Strangely, the party media did not follow up with any extensive reports on the matter.
As of the early hours of January 29th, searching for “Zhang Youxia” on Baidu showed that major party media outlets like Xinhua, People’s Daily, China News, and Youth.cn were still featuring news videos released by the CCP five days ago, all republished from the Ministry of Defense website regarding the investigation into Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli.
Even after searching within Xinhua and China News websites, only the announcements from five days ago about Zhang Youxia’s downfall and a relevant editorial from the CCP’s military newspaper on that day were found.
State-run media outlets like CCTV, China National Radio, and the China Court website still had the “Biography of the Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission” page, with Zhang Youxia’s name and photo still visible.
Reporters had stated earlier that after Zhang Youxia’s arrest, there was strong internal dissent among various military branches. Several officers privately questioned the detention and scrutiny of two senior generals, who were long esteemed and considered as “old leaders” within the military establishment, without any clear evidence provided by the central CCP authority, severely damaging the trust within the military hierarchy.
It was reported that directives from the Central Military Commission Office to the major theater commands and group armies were left unimplemented, leaving orders in the military gridlocked. Furthermore, as of the time of reporting, neither the CCP’s Military Commission nor the related military websites saw any public support statements from various theater commands or military branches backing the official CCP and Central Military Commission narrative.
Leading Chair of the Princeton China Society, Chen Kuidi, analyzed for Da Ji Yuan that recently, Zhang Youxia had essentially eliminated all of Xi Jinping’s military loyalists, including major personnel in military districts across the country, leading to the absence of visible support.
Regarding the peculiar post-arrest situation of Zhang Youxia, Director Shen Mingshi of the National Security Institute at the Taiwan Institute for National Defense and Security Studies told Da Ji Yuan, “The lack of overt defenses or public alignment postures is mainly due to the unclear situation at present.”
He believed that perhaps individuals in charge of propaganda like Wang Huning or Cai Qi were feeling politically insecure themselves, hence the lack of proactive measures in shaping Xi Jinping’s image as an unchallenged leader from a publicity or public opinion perspective.
Observers generally agree that Xi Jinping’s handling of Zhang Youxia’s arrest did not follow standard CCP procedures. Commentator Honghe wrote, “Who decided on the arrest of Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli? The notice says it was the CCP Central Committee. The CCP Central Committee is a very vague concept, it could refer to the Central Committee, or during recess, to the Political Bureau, or to the Standing Committee. Why was it not clearly indicated which level of the organization made the decision?”
Chen Kuidi’s analysis pointed out that Xi Jinping took a risky leap by breaking many existing norms, swiftly issuing the arrest orders but not following up, with none of the top leaders from the five major theater commands publicly expressing support for the central decisions.
He noted that different factions are currently engaged in a power struggle, suggesting that the situation has not reached a conclusion, and stability has not been achieved. The internal dynamics are intense, albeit shrouded in secrecy, making it difficult to predict the outcome.
Wen Rui stated, “Massive resistance forces within the party and the military are rapidly spreading silently within the system, almost like planting a ticking time bomb around Xi Jinping. Today we don’t see tanks entering Beijing, but what about tomorrow? Or the day after tomorrow? Next month? This terror will keep Xi Jinping on edge.”
Xi Jinping has reportedly consolidated uncontested power but at the cost of diminishing prestige. This poses a danger to Xi Jinping himself, as the source of potential threats to him remains uncertain. The excessive centralization of power signifies a decline in the efficiency of the CCP system, marking the prelude to the dynasty’s downfall.
Chen Kuidi suggested that if a force were to openly rally against Xi Jinping, the situation would quickly deteriorate for him. If an open challenge were to emerge, Xi Jinping’s influence would crumble quickly, leading to his defeat.
Wen Rui added, “The massive resistance within the party and the military is rapidly spreading in a silent manner, akin to planting a ticking bomb within the system. Today we don’t see tanks marching on Beijing, but what about tomorrow? The next day? Next month? This uncertainty will keep Xi Jinping restless.”
With two of the CCP’s four pillars – the military and the media – already compromised, Xi Jinping’s central authority is under intense pressure. The question that remains is how long can the CCP sustain itself in its current state of turmoil.
He concluded, “The CCP system is in disarray, and Xi Jinping, at its peak, is facing an imminent catastrophe.”