The global financial information service provider SWIFT recently released its latest data, showing that the share of the US dollar in the international payment system has risen to over 50%, reaching a new high in nearly two years, while the Chinese yuan’s share has dropped to sixth place. Experts pointed out that supported by factors such as the performance of the US economy, financial system, and international influence, the dominant position of the US dollar is unlikely to be shaken for at least the next twenty years, while China’s efforts to promote the internationalization of the yuan have not been very effective.
SWIFT’s data for global currency payments in December 2025 showed that the US dollar’s share in global payments had risen to 50.49%, up by 3.72 percentage points from the previous month’s 46.8%, marking the highest level since SWIFT adjusted its data methodology in 2023.
During the same period, the euro still ranked second with a share of about 21.9%, followed by the pound (6.73%), the Canadian dollar (3.44%), the Japanese yen (3.42%), and the Chinese yuan (2.73%). This is the second time the US dollar has exceeded the 50% mark since January 2025.
Despite ongoing market uncertainties caused by President Trump’s policies, the dominance of the US dollar in global trade and financial settlements remains stable, as reported by Bloomberg.
The annual report from SWIFT revealed that approximately 13.4 billion payment instructions were sent through the system in 2024, higher than the 11.9 billion in 2023.
JPMorgan’s strategists highlighted in a recent report that the US dollar continues to be the core currency in foreign exchange trading and international monetary usage. Data from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) showed that as of April 2025, approximately 89% of global foreign exchange transactions involved the US dollar; the Federal Reserve estimated that around 60% of international debt is denominated in US dollars.
American economist Davy J. Wong, in an interview with Epoch Times, mentioned that the increase in the share of US dollar payments is primarily due to rising global political and economic uncertainties. When local geopolitical and policy outlooks are unclear, companies and financial institutions tend to choose the most liquid and stable currencies for settlement, making the US dollar the preferred choice.
He further explained that the uncertainty surrounding tariffs and policy expectations under the Trump administration actually reinforced the demand for hedging, further solidifying the use of the US dollar in settlements.
Professor Xie Tian from the Moore School of Business at the University of South Carolina stated, “Since the US dollar replaced the pound as the global reserve currency after World War II, its position has remained unshakable. Whether in international reserves, cross-border transactions, or financial circulation, the US dollar is far ahead. This structural advantage is expected to remain robust in the foreseeable future.”
According to Xie, the position of the US dollar in the global financial system is reaching new heights. The rapid recovery of the US economy and comprehensive national strength in recent times are becoming key factors in driving the renewed strength of the US dollar, despite a slight decline in its share in previous periods.
The data indicates that the strength of the US dollar is supported by the continued improvement in the performance of the US economy.
Based on revised data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis of the US Department of Commerce on Thursday, the GDP annualized growth rate for the third quarter of 2025 was 4.4%, slightly higher than the initial report of 4.3%, marking the fastest growth rate in two years.
Xie pointed out that the growth of the US economy provides important support to the US dollar. Data showed that the GDP growth rate for the fourth quarter of 2025 reached 5.3%, with the estimated annual economic growth rate around 4.7%. Some market institutions predict that the US economic growth rate in 2026 may remain at around 5% or even higher.
“The dominant position of the US dollar is built on the strong economic foundation of the United States, a well-developed financial system, a stable political system, and global military presence. These factors form a mutually reinforcing system that keeps the US dollar at an unshakable advantage in international currency competition.”
Xie said that as long as these core conditions do not fundamentally change, the US dollar will remain a key currency in the global financial system.
Davy J. Wong mentioned that the long-standing position of the US dollar at the core of the global financial system is not solely due to the size of the US economy, but rather its comprehensive institutional advantages. This includes the world’s strongest political and military influence, the largest capital markets worldwide, the core safe asset of US treasuries, and a mature and well-developed clearing, legal, and financial system.
Amidst news of GDP growth, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent predicted at the World Economic Forum in Davos that after adjusting for inflation, the US economy’s growth rate in 2026 could reach 5%. He stated, “This year, we will see very robust economic growth. The actual growth rate may be between 4% and 5%, meaning the nominal growth rate will reach 7% to 8%.”
In contrast to the spotlight on the US dollar, the Chinese yuan dropped to sixth place with a share of 2.73%.
Of note, the Chinese authorities have been vigorously promoting the internationalization of the Chinese yuan in recent years. Last year, the official WeChat account of the Ministry of Commerce of China cited SWIFT data, stating that in March 2025, the yuan ranked as the fourth largest payment currency globally, with a share of 4.13%.
China has been trying to promote the use of the yuan in trade within the BRICS countries. President Trump had warned countries in the BRICS group that supporting the replacement of the dollar in international trade would face 100% tariffs, and that they should not create new currencies or support other currencies to replace the dollar.
Former Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jim O’Neill previously stated that the achievements of the BRICS countries are minimal as long as member countries China and India remain divided and refuse to cooperate on trade, making the idea of the BRICS challenging the US dollar seem like a fantasy.
Regarding discussions in Chinese media about the “replacement of the dollar by the yuan,” Davy J. Wong pointed out that the internationalization of the yuan’s key lies not in publicity but in institutional conditions.
“An international currency needs to have free convertibility, free flow of capital, long-term holding, and reliable legal protection. Currently, the yuan is still subject to capital controls and institutional constraints, lacking freely tradable, sufficiently large safe assets, which limits its global role,” explained Wong.
Xie Tian also believes that the internationalization process of the yuan faces fundamental obstacles. He pointed out that the yuan has not achieved full convertibility, and its exchange rate and liquidity are still highly controlled by the government, making it difficult to become a trusted international reserve currency.
Additionally, the Chinese economy continues to slow down as tensions persist with neighboring countries in the region.
“Most countries still prefer to settle with the US dollar or other major international currencies when conducting trade with China,” Xie said. If capital controls and exchange rate controls are hastily lifted, the long-term accumulated currency over-issuance problem may be exposed, posing a challenge to the financial system, which is a core reason why the Chinese authorities are hesitant to fully open up.
SWIFT data also shows a continuing decline in the share of the euro, dropping to 21.9% in December 2025, reaching its lowest level in a year.
Regarding the future of the euro, Xie Tian mentioned that in its initial launch, the euro was seen by some markets as a potential rival to the US dollar, but Europe has faced multiple challenges in economic growth, fiscal conditions, and geopolitics in recent years. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine further exacerbated the economic burden on Europe.
As for the future of the dollar, Bloomberg also noted that despite fluctuations in the US policy environment, the long-term trend shown in SWIFT transaction data indicates that the use of the US dollar in international payments remains relatively stable.
Addressing discussions on whether the dollar could be replaced, Xie Tian stated that there is currently no realistic alternative in sight. “For the foreseeable future, the dominant position of the US dollar will continue, and it is unlikely to face significant challenges for at least the next twenty years.”
(Translated and Rewritten the article in English)