On January 19, the official data on population will be released by the Chinese authorities, marking the fourth consecutive year of declining birth rates in China. The United Nations’ “World Population Prospects 2024” estimated that in 2025, there may be only around 8.71 million new births in China. Independent Chinese demographer He Yafu also stated that the birth population in 2025 is “almost certain” to be below 9 million, reaching a historic low. This will result in Chinese newborns accounting for less than 7% of the global birth population for the first time.
In 1964, Chinese newborns accounted for as much as 27.3% of the global proportion, with one out of four newborns coming from China. However, today, the proportion has even dropped below one-tenth, indicating a significant shift in fertility attitudes among China’s younger generation.
According to a report by the Nikkei newspaper, the key reason for the decline in birth rates is the decrease in the number of marriages in 2024 – with marriage registrations dropping by 20% from the previous year to 6.1 million, less than half of the number almost a decade ago.
The declining birth rate is not new. In 2022, the birth population fell to 95.6 million, marking the first time it was below 100 million since the founding of the People’s Republic of China in 1949. In 2023, the birth population further decreased to 90.2 million, hitting a historic low.
While the birth population briefly increased in 2024, growing by 6% from the previous year to reach 95.4 million, this was due to an increase in marriage registrations following the 2023 epidemic. Nevertheless, the birth population in 2024 was only half of the recent peak in 2016.
China implemented the policy of allowing two children per couple in 2016 and further relaxed it to allow three children in 2021, but the policies have not been effective.
The high cost of raising children is a key factor in the declining fertility rate. According to a survey released by the Yuwa Population Research Institute in 2024, the average cost of raising a child until high school graduation in China is about 538,000 RMB. In first-tier cities like Beijing and Shanghai, this figure exceeds 885,000 RMB.
Based on a more affluent income estimate, the average monthly income for a typical family is around 7,000 to 8,000 RMB, with an annual income of about 84,000 to 96,000 RMB. It costs approximately 2,490 RMB per month to raise a child, which already accounts for about one-third of the income.
The analysis by the Nikkei newspaper shows that the cost of raising a child to the age of 18 is equivalent to 6.3 times the per capita gross domestic product, second only to South Korea and higher than the United States, Japan, and several European countries.
In June 2023, the youth unemployment rate in China aged 16 to 24 reached a record high of 21.3%, with one out of every five individuals being unemployed. Subsequently, the Chinese statistics bureau suspended the release of youth unemployment data for several months.
After adjusting the statistical method to exclude young people in school, the unemployment rate remained high. In November 2025, the non-schooling youth aged 16 to 24 had an unemployment rate of 16.9%. In 2025, the number of college graduates in China reached a record high of 12.22 million, with many young people becoming unemployed upon graduation.
Yang Jian (pseudonym), a resident in mainland China, told Dajiyuan that young people in their 90s and 00s in his community tend to choose not to get married. “Why should I get married? Isn’t it pleasant to earn money and eat alone?” Many parents have also come to terms with the idea that if their children do not marry, they do not have to take care of grandchildren.
Zhuang Yi (pseudonym), 25 years old, expressed that under the rule of the Chinese Communist Party in mainland China, the work situation is very tough, and it is hard to find a job. Even if one starts working, they have to work overtime excessively, and salaries are not paid on time. “There is no interest in starting a family, but there is no way to make it happen in Chengdu; I see no way out.” He mentioned that in the face of hopelessness, all he can do is to lie down flat. “If I can’t find a job, I’ll just lie down at home. There are many things I want to do, but can’t.”
During the lockdown in Shanghai in 2022, a man responded to the police threat of affecting “three generations” by saying, “This is our last generation, thank you!” This statement quickly became a trending term and was dubbed the “voice of the times,” reflecting the despair, accusation, and resistance of a generation towards the authoritarian rule of the Chinese Communist Party.
Senior media personality Huang Jinqiu pointed out, “Due to pandemic prevention and control, everyone is restricted, losing their human rights, various freedoms, and even the security of life.”
“The long-term lockdown… with various inhumane measures, actions that violate the bottom line of the law, various acts of infringement. As long as it is said to be needed for the pandemic, all your rights are taken away. We see scenes of tragedy unfolding, with many people jumping off buildings, not being able to live anymore, many being threatened, insulted, and even physically assaulted by the authorities. The words spoken by the youth ‘we are the last generation’ are truly a desperate cry.”
An online video is circulating, showing the farewell between Tan Sitong and his wife before his execution in the late Qing Dynasty. Tan’s wife said, “We haven’t had children yet.” Tan Sitong uttered the most despairing words, “In this China, isn’t having one more child just having one more slave?”
Many netizens are using this video to make comparisons to present-day mainland China. Faced with various predicaments, some netizens said, “There is a saying that the three worst things a Chinese person can do are being unfilial, not having descendants, and being childless – but in situations where life is uncontrollable, lying flat and refusing to give birth have become the only things this generation can do.”
Others said, “Having a child is not meant to bring suffering upon them. With numerous events of students committing suicide and seeking vengeance against society, various incidents causing harm, societal problems are continuously arising.” “It is essential to protect the existing citizens; otherwise, how can we dare to bring forth the next generation into this world?”
The recent increase in missing cases and mysterious deaths of young people in China has raised concerns. In many cases of missing youth found dead, eventually ruled as “drowning deaths” with the possibility of criminal cases ruled out, public opinion on the internet has raised doubts and linked some cases to organ harvesting, causing social unrest.