European leaders announced on Monday, December 15th, that they have reached a consensus that only after establishing strong security guarantees for Ukraine can the Ukrainian people decide whether to make concessions on their territory. They emphasized that security guarantees should include a multinational force led by Europe and supported by the United States.
Following a meeting in Berlin on Monday, more than a dozen European leaders and the President of the European Commission issued a joint statement stating that leaders of all countries unanimously believe that ensuring Ukraine’s security, sovereignty, and prosperity is crucial for broader European-Atlantic security.
The statement also mentioned that the United States and European leaders are committed to providing strong security guarantees and support for economic recovery to Ukraine within the framework of ending the war agreements.
In the joint statement, European leaders outlined what they consider necessary security guarantees. Firstly, continuous and significant support should be provided to Ukraine to assist in building its armed forces. The forces should be maintained at a scale of 800,000 personnel during peacetime to “provide Ukraine with deterrence capabilities and defend its territory.” The United States had previously proposed that the number of armed forces Ukraine can have during peacetime should not exceed 600,000.
The security guarantees proposed by European leaders also call for the establishment of a “Ukrainian multinational force” led by Europe and supported by the United States. This force will assist in rebuilding the Ukrainian military, safeguarding Ukrainian airspace, and maintaining maritime security, including operations within Ukraine.
Security measures will also include a “ceasefire monitoring and verification mechanism” led by the United States with international participation, aimed at providing early warnings of any future attacks and attributing and responding to any ceasefire violations. Additionally, a conflict de-escalation mechanism will be established to develop actions conducive to mutual de-escalation among the parties.
According to the joint statement, countries are required to make legally binding commitments, subject to their respective domestic procedures, that in the event of a future armed attack, measures will be taken to restore peace and security. These measures could include the use of armed forces, the provision of intelligence and logistical support, and the implementation of economic and diplomatic actions.
The European leaders also mentioned investments in Ukraine’s future prosperity in the statement, including providing significant resources for recovery and rebuilding, achieving mutually beneficial trade agreements, while considering the necessity for Russia to compensate for the damage caused to Ukraine. Against this backdrop, Russia’s sovereign assets within the EU have been frozen.
Furthermore, the European leaders stated in the declaration that they firmly support Ukraine’s accession to the European Union.
“Once effective security guarantees are established, territorial issues should be decided by the Ukrainian people,” the joint statement said.
American officials revealed during an online briefing on Monday that allies will provide very strong security guarantees to Ukraine similar to Article 5 of NATO under the discussed peace agreement. However, they also implied that Ukraine and European partners should reach an agreement as soon as possible. These security guarantees will not be on the negotiating table forever. They are currently being proposed under the condition that the war can be ended in a constructive manner.