In recent years, the state of Arizona has transitioned from being a solidly Republican state to becoming a swing state that leans more towards the Democratic Party. Since 2020, Arizona has been on a trajectory towards the Democratic Party, with the upcoming 2024 US Congressional elections targeting two seats in the state to flip from Republican hands to help the Democrats regain the majority in the House of Representatives.
The US House of Representatives has 435 seats, with elections held every two years leading to a reshuffling of all seats. These seats are typically divided mainly between the Republican and Democratic parties, with the party gaining a majority of seats (218 seats) becoming the majority party in the House for that term, giving them control over the legislative powers for those years.
Currently, in the 118th Congress, the Republican Party leads with 220 seats to the Democratic Party’s 211 seats, with 4 seats vacant.
In the upcoming Congress elections, the Republicans aim to expand their majority while the Democrats hope to flip the majority. The Democrats need to win just 5 more seats to regain the majority, thus they have targeted some vulnerable Republican seats in swing states, including the 1st and 6th Congressional Districts in Arizona.
Arizona, also known as “The Grand Canyon State,” has historically been a stronghold for the Republican Party but has seen a shift towards being a swing state since 2020.
In the 2020 presidential election, Democratic candidate Joe Biden narrowly defeated then-President Trump by 0.3 percentage points in Arizona, a stark contrast to Trump’s 3.5-point win against Hillary Clinton in 2016.
Aside from Biden’s narrow victory in 2020 and Bill Clinton’s re-election victory in 1996, Arizona had not supported a Democratic presidential candidate in national elections since 1948.
For the 2024 election, polling averages from RealClearPolling until August 30th showed Trump with a 1-point advantage over the Democratic presidential candidate, Vice President Kamala Harris, in Arizona.
US News categorizes Arizona as one of the few “hard-to-predict” states in the 2024 election, reflecting the changing demographics of the state.
In recent years, Arizona has seen strong population growth and increasing diversity. Currently, the state’s population is majority white (52.9%), with a significant increase in the Hispanic population at 32.5%, while African American (5.5%) and Native American (5.2%) populations make up smaller proportions.
Independent voters make up a significant portion of Arizona’s registered voters. According to the Independent Voter Project’s data from November 2023, 34.13% are Republicans, 30.06% are Democrats, and 29.15% are independents, making up a substantial part.
A poll conducted by Emerson College Polling earlier this year indicated that immigration is the most concerning issue for Arizona voters at 31%, followed by the economy (20%), housing (11%), education (10%), abortion (7%), and healthcare (6%).
Arizona has 9 seats in the US House of Representatives, corresponding to the state’s 9 congressional districts. Currently, Republicans hold 6 seats, while Democrats hold 3. The most competitive races in the 2024 election are likely to be in the 1st and 6th Congressional Districts held by Republicans.
The 1st Congressional District covers parts of North Phoenix, Scottsdale, Paradise Valley, Cave Creek, Fountain Hills, as well as the Salt River and Fort McDowell Yavapai National tribal reservations. It is considered one of the central and wealthiest congressional districts in Arizona.
The current incumbent in this district is Republican David Schweikert, being challenged by Democrat Amish Shah.
In the 2022 congressional elections, Schweikert, a six-term congressman, narrowly defeated a relatively unknown Democratic candidate by less than 1 percentage point (approximately 3,000 votes), prompting Democrats to see an opportunity to unseat him in the 2024 elections.
The Cook Political Report’s analysis indicates that this district has the most university graduates in Arizona, who have shown a trend of moving away from the Republican Party in recent years.
According to the Secretary of State’s office data, the district has a slight Republican advantage in registered voters, with 188,000 Republicans to 134,000 Democrats, while an additional 158,000 independent voters could be pivotal in determining the outcome of the election.
The Cook Political Report considers this election a “toss-up,” with the potential for an upset.
The 6th Congressional District is located in southeast Arizona, covering most of Pima County, including much of Tucson city, and Cochise County.
The current incumbent in this district is Republican Juan Ciscomani, facing challengers from Democrat and former state legislator Kirsten Engel, and Green Party candidate Athena Eastwood.
Ciscomani, a first-term congressman, narrowly won the 2022 election, defeating Democratic candidate Engel by a slim margin. This election marks a rematch between the two, as Engel seeks to turn the tables in 2024.
According to the Secretary of State’s data, the district consists of approximately 36% Republicans, 31% Democrats, with the remaining 33% being independent voters.
David Schweikert, 62, first won election to Arizona’s 5th Congressional District in 2010, marking his entry into Congress. He has since had smooth reelection campaigns, with a narrow victory in 2022, seeking his 8th term in office.
The United States conducts a census every 10 years, leading to a redistricting of congressional districts based on the latest population data. Schweikert’s district has experienced changes from the 5th to the 6th District over the years.
Known for his background in finance and real estate, Schweikert holds a Bachelor’s degree in Finance and Real Estate, as well as an MBA. Apart from his real estate ventures, he has also been involved in local politics, serving as a member of the Arizona State Legislature, Chair of the Arizona Equal Opportunity Commission, and Chief Financial Officer of Maricopa County.
In Congress, Schweikert is a member of the House Ways and Means Committee. He has long emphasized sound fiscal policies and low tax rates in his district, encompassing many of Arizona’s wealthiest suburbs.
Democrats are determined to challenge him on the abortion issue. Despite Schweikert’s personal opposition to abortion, he does not support a nationwide ban on abortion.
Local media outlet Cronkite News reported political consultant Jason Rose’s statement regarding Schweikert: “He’s won many victories, he’s a relentless campaigner. But there’s a shift happening here, he certainly has a problem that’s not particularly helpful to him in this new landscape.”
Schweikert’s long-time strategist, Chris Baker, accused Democratic candidates of using the abortion issue as a diversion from economic and border issues. He stated, “They know they’re on the wrong side of (economic and border issues), so they keep coming back and trying to bring up the issue of abortion.”
A survey of Arizona voters in June indicated strong support for abortion rights, with 70% of registered voters in the state supporting a constitutional amendment allowing abortions based on fetal viability or maternal health protection. Another poll by Noble Predictive Insights found that 38% of people in the state believe a politician’s stance on abortion is “very influential.”
Abortion rights advocates are campaigning to include abortion rights on the November ballot, which could drive a higher voter turnout in November and potentially disadvantage Schweikert. Democrats believe the political climate this year is ripe for unseating Schweikert.
Amish Shah, a second-generation Indian American born in Chicago, is 47 years old and a three-term state legislator in Arizona.
Earlier this year, Shah resigned from his state legislative position to focus on his congressional campaign, winning the Democratic primary against five other competitors.
Shah holds a Bachelor’s degree in economics and a Doctor of Medicine degree. In his early career, he served as the Chief Medical Officer of a local emergency consultancy center and as an airway management physician for the New York Jets in the National Football League (NFL).
During his tenure in the state legislature, Shah avoided labeling himself along party lines, emphasizing finding bipartisan common ground and accepting incremental compromises.
This approach has frustrated some of his Democratic colleagues who have compared Shah’s voting record to that of Democratic Senator Kyrsten Sinema, who switched from being a Democrat to an independent in state politics.
Shah defended himself, stating, “You get a predictably critical thinker.”
However, in terms of policy platforms, Shah leans towards Democratic policies, such as opposing the extension of the tax cuts from the Trump era for the top earners and supporting an income tax increase for individuals earning over $50,000.
Additionally, Shah lists healthcare, education, and housing issues as his campaign priorities. As a doctor, he is passionate about “universal healthcare” and is open to both single-payer or multi-payer models. He also plans to “fully fund Arizona’s public schools.”
He also supports federal actions to reduce healthcare insurance and drug costs, expand pre-K programs, and federal incentives to increase the supply of affordable housing in Arizona.
Regarding abortion, Shah’s divergence from other Democrats is technical; for example, he opposes certain types of oral contraceptives due to scientific evidence indicating risks for certain patients.
Juan Ciscomani, now 42, made history in the 2022 elections by becoming the first Mexican-born naturalized American citizen elected as a US Congressman representing Arizona.
Arriving in the US with his family at the age of 11, Ciscomani grew up in Tucson, Arizona, attending Pima Community College and the University of Arizona to become the first college graduate in his family.
In his early political career, Ciscomani worked for a Democratic congressman, an experience he believes “challenged my own ideas and solidified my own political positions.”
Later, he registered as a Republican in 2008, entering Governor Doug Ducey’s office as a senior advisor in 2015 and serving as Vice Chairman of the Arizona-Mexico Commission until 2021.
In February 2023, Ciscomani, as a freshman congressman, provided a Spanish-language response to President Biden’s annual State of the Union address.
The 6th Congressional District, bordering Mexico, has seen an influx of hundreds of thousands of immigrants seeking asylum in the US. Border security and illegal immigration are critical issues Ciscomani grapples with daily.
He believes Democratic solutions to these issues have failed, leading to the “worst border crisis in American history.” He told NPR, “It’s not good for our communities here, and it’s not good for our nation as a whole.”
In an interview with the Arizona Republic, Ciscomani stated, “Border security is the most critical issue facing our region and the whole country.” He supports the border and immigration policies from the Trump administration, including building a border wall, ending “catch and release” practices, and making migrants “wait in Mexico” for US judicial processes. He added, “We must prevent illegal immigrations from pouring into our borders in record and unsustainable levels.”
Furthermore, Ciscomani views China as the biggest national security threat to the US and believes the border crisis exacerbates this threat, stating, “From our national debt to cybersecurity, to our border crisis, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is the biggest threat to our national security. Currently, age-appropriate individuals from around the world, including the CCP, illegally cross our southern border.”
He continued, “The CCP’s ownership of social media and online companies allows them to monitor our citizens. They produce the raw materials for fentanyl, which are shipped to Mexico for processing and then smuggled into the US, causing thousands of deaths annually. In recent years, the CCP has purchased farmland across our country. and the global national security threat the CCP poses to Taiwan and many of our allies is most concerning.”
On the abortion issue, Ciscomani supports Arizona’s previous ban on abortion after 15 weeks of pregnancy but opposes a nationwide ban on abortion.
Ciscomani and his wife are parents to six children.
Kirsten Engel, 62, was elected to the Arizona State House in 2016 and the State Senate in 2020.
After only 8 months as a senator in 2021, Engel resigned to run for Congress but narrowly lost to Republican Ciscomani by 2 points in the 2022 election. She has decided to run again in the 2024 election.
With a Doctor of Laws degree, Engel has worked as an environmental lawyer and a law professor and vice-dean at the University of Arizona Law School.
She advocates for clean energy sources like solar power, calling for stronger federal measures to curb air and water pollution caused by power plants. She also advocates for making driving gasoline-powered vehicles “painful.”
Supporting abortion rights, Engel hopes to legislate to restore federal abortion rights once in Congress.
Engel told the Arizona Republic that she also plans to “ensure border security and pass comprehensive immigration reform” if elected to Congress, believing the solution lies in protecting the border and enhancing border enforcement capabilities. She said, “We need more border patrol agents, more immigration judges and staff to handle asylum applications. We must install cutting-edge inspection and monitoring equipment to prevent fentanyl and illegal drugs from flowing into our ports of entry.”
Regarding the biggest national security threat to the US, Engel replied, “It is crucial that we bravely confront the rising threats posed by China and the expanding Russia. We constantly see Chinese espionage activities attempting to steal our technological secrets and most innovative business advances. China continues to threaten Taiwan and its democratic self-rule while carrying out genocide against its people and eradicating democracy and human rights in Hong Kong.”
She continued, “It is building its domestic industries to challenge our dominance in key manufacturing and economic areas that will determine the future power balance. We must protect the domestic economy and maintain the most powerful military force in the world to contain China. We need to build strong alliances to convey this message: Democratic nations around the world will support freedom and human rights, not oppression and dictatorship.”
Tucson Sentinel reported that during the 2022 Congressional election, the Democratic National Campaign Committee refused to invest in Engel’s campaign, but in January 2024, the committee announced adding Arizona’s 6th Congressional District to its list of districts it hopes to “flip from red to blue” in the 2024 elections.
Engel’s individual fundraising has already exceeded that of her opponent Ciscomani.
Additionally, the Conservative Leadership Fund, a Republican PAC, announced in May that it has reserved $5.8 million for TV, streaming services, and digital platforms to support Ciscomani’s campaign in Tucson, as part of the Republican’s $141 million national effort. However, the National Republican Congressional Committee did not include the 6th Congressional District in its first round of $45.7 million campaign spending nationwide.
According to the Arizona Daily Independent, the Green Party nominated 8 candidates in Arizona for the 2024 elections. Athena Eastwood will campaign for the 6th Congressional District.
The Green Party states they have 100 elected officials nationwide, but Arizona has never had a Green Party candidate elected to state or federal office.
The influence of the late Republican Senator John McCain’s family in Arizona cannot be overlooked. His son, Jimmy McCain, recently announced he will vote for Democratic presidential candidate and current Vice President Harris in the upcoming election.
Jimmy McCain mentioned in a recent interview with CNN that he switched his voter registration from independent to Democrat a few weeks ago and plans to vote for Harris in November, saying he will do everything he can to help Harris win.
John McCain’s wife, Cindy McCain, supported Biden in the 2020 presidential election.
Their daughter, Meghan McCain, a strong critic of Trump, has not endorsed Harris. She mentioned on social media that she would not support a radical leftist candidate.
John McCain, who passed away in 2018, served as a senator for 31 years and was the Republican presidential nominee in 2008.
Young John McCain was a US Navy pilot, a prisoner of war during the Vietnam War, spending 5 and a half years in captivity in Vietnam. Upon his release in 1973, he received widespread bipartisan respect and hero treatment upon his return to the US.
McCain was a revered figure in American politics and a prominent leader in the Republican Party.
Former President Trump had several disagreements with McCain. Since McCain’s passing, his family and supporters have distanced themselves from the Trump-led Republican Party. Since the 2020 election, both Trump himself and his supported Republican candidates have faced setbacks in Arizona against Democratic candidates.