With just a few weeks left until the California primaries, the gubernatorial race has yet to produce a clear frontrunner, but this deadlock may change after the upcoming debates. According to current polls, both the Republican and Democratic parties have strong candidates vying for the governorship.
The California gubernatorial race is one of the most closely watched campaigns in the entire country. Despite having a large number of candidates, the focus of voters is primarily on the two Republican and six Democratic candidates.
Based on the latest polling data released by the California Democratic Party this week and the Emerson Poll in April, the primary competition is unusually fierce. The two Republican gubernatorial candidates, Steve Hilton (17%) and Chad Bianco (14%), are still slightly ahead in support.
On the night of April 22, the six major gubernatorial candidates gathered in San Francisco for a debate. This was the first debate since former Congressman Eric Swalwell withdrew from the race following allegations of sexual misconduct.
The debate included two Republicans, Hilton and Bianco, and four Democratic candidates – former State Attorney General Xavier Becerra, former Congresswoman Katie Porter, billionaire Tom Steyer, and San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan.
According to the Emerson Poll, Steyer has a support rate of 14%, while Becerra and Porter are at 10% and Mahan is at 5%. Since Swalwell’s withdrawal, there has been a noticeable shift in the fortunes of several Democratic candidates, with several candidates who had been hovering in single-digit support seeing significant increases. Currently, about 20% of voters have yet to decide on a candidate.
The two Democratic candidates – former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa and State Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond – did not participate in this debate. Their current support rates are 2% and 1%, respectively.
Before the June primaries, the leading gubernatorial candidates will participate in several more debates: Pomona College will host a gubernatorial debate on campus on April 28. Another debate will take place in the Los Angeles area on the afternoon of May 5.
This year’s California gubernatorial election is unusual in that neither the Republican nor Democratic parties have endorsed any internal candidates.
According to California’s “Top-2-Primary” election rules, the two candidates with the highest number of votes in the June primaries, regardless of party affiliation, will advance directly. The final outcome will be revealed in the November general election.
Based on polls and rankings, Republican votes seem to be more concentrated at the moment, while due to the large number of Democratic candidates, votes are relatively scattered. The California Democratic Party chairman is urging lower-ranking candidates to drop out of the race.
Data from the California Secretary of State’s website shows that Democratic gubernatorial candidates are ahead in fundraising.
Steyer has raised nearly $123 million, with almost 99% of the funds being self-financed; Mahan has raised about $12.74 million, including significant donations from prominent Silicon Valley figures.
Hilton has raised over $7.26 million, Villaraigosa $6.96 million, Porter about $6.38 million, Bianco around $4.37 million, Becerra about $2.89 million, and Thurmond raised $1.6 million.