“Qin Peng Observation: Trump and Musk Splitting? China and Japan Support the Great Beautiful Law”

In recent days, billionaire Elon Musk has publicly criticized Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” causing a huge stir. Some American media have eagerly quoted the opinions of insiders, listing various “insider information” that led to Musk’s dissatisfaction, sensationalizing the ruptured relationship between the two.

Trump initially remained silent, but on June 5th (Thursday), the two began a quarrel from a distance! Trump publicly said, “I am very disappointed in Elon,” and even said Musk “has gone crazy.” Musk, on the other hand, supported impeaching Trump, saying, “Isn’t it time to establish a political party in the U.S. that truly represents the 80% of moderate voters?”

Interestingly, the Wall Street Journal, often singing a different tune after Trump’s return, published an editorial this week strongly supporting the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act.”

What’s going on here? Let’s interpret it today.

Over the past few days, Musk has turned into an “internet warrior,” fiercely criticizing the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” on X platform, directly targeting its financial impact and convoluted content. His words were incendiary, attempting to ignite public sentiment to compel the U.S. Congress to re-examine the bill. Here are his most notable moves:

1. “Kill the Bill” Mobilization: Musk posted calling on his fans: “Quick, call your senators and representatives! Bankruptcy is not an option for America! We need a new bill without adding deficits.”

2. Dramatic Satire: He posted a still from the movie “Kill Bill” with Uma Thurman as “The Bride,” captioning it: “The colossal spending bill is driving America into the abyss! Enough!”

3. Deficit Crisis Warning: Musk estimated the bill would increase the deficit by $25 trillion, criticizing it for being “bloated, outrageous, and filled with special interest trades.” He emphasized that this goes against the goal of reducing $1 trillion in spending for DOGE and contradicts his initial intentions in joining the Trump administration.

Musk launched frequent “internet offensives.” However, as of Thursday morning, Trump had not publicly retaliated. White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt also tried to downplay it, saying, “The President is aware of Elon Musk’s stance on this bill. This will not change the President’s outlook. It is a huge and beautiful bill, and he will stand by it.”

However, on the morning of June 4th, Trump reposted a screenshot of Musk’s post from May 28th on Truth social: “As my special government employment term concludes, I want to thank President Trump (@realDonaldTrump) for giving me the opportunity to cut government waste. ‘DOGE plan will grow stronger over time and eventually become the way of working and culture for the entire government.'” What does this mean? I believe different people will interpret it differently. It’s quite delicate.

Meanwhile, Musk’s remarks stirred up a huge wave within the Republican Party and online. Speaker of the House Mike Johnson responded for two consecutive days, saying Musk didn’t return his calls and stated, “We don’t have time to write a new bill from scratch.” Implied in his words, the House version was close to finalization, and the Senate could make minor adjustments, but radical changes were not to be considered.

At the same time, the deficit hawks within the Republican Party, including Senators Rand Paul and Mike Lee, were ignited, publicly echoing Musk’s sentiments, urging to cut $4 trillion in debt ceiling increases and high-cost projects.

In the U.S. media, seizing this rare hot topic, attempts were made to mine juicy stories from the “rift” between Trump and Musk. For instance, Axios raised exclusive insider details titled “Musk’s Four Reasons for Criticizing Trump’s ‘Big Beautiful Bill.'”

Electric vehicle subsidy dispute: The bill cancels the tax credit exemption for electric vehicles, originally set to expire in 2028, posing a potential threat to Tesla. In the first quarter of 2025, Tesla’s profits plummeted by 71%, and in April, Tesla spent $240,000 lobbying to retain the exemption, which Musk personally intervened in behind the scenes to no avail. Tesla voiced on X: “The abrupt cancellation of the energy tax credit exemptions will endanger American energy independence and grid stability.” ABC News added that Musk was extremely dissatisfied privately, believing it shook Tesla’s strategic foundation.

Special government employee status restrictions: Musk serving as the head of DOGE as a “special government employee” had a statutorily unpaid term of only 130 days. He had hoped for an extension, but the White House adamantly refused citing legal and conflicting interests. An insider revealed, “Elon is very hurt.”

Starlink project hindrance: Musk proposed that the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) adopt SpaceX’s Starlink satellites to optimize the national air traffic control system, which was shelved due to technical complexity and conflicting interests. An insider mentioned, “Relying solely on satellites for air traffic control? That’s too risky.”

NASA Nomination Controversy: The most significant “trigger” was Trump withdrawing the nomination of Musk ally, Jared Isaacman, as NASA Administrator. Reports stated that Republican senators pressured the White House due to Isaacman’s donations to the Democratic Party, leading to a concession. A White House official lamented, “For Elon, this feels like the ultimate disgrace.”

The above are the four major dissatisfactions of Musk reported by Axios. Other media outlets also uncovered additional issues, such as:

ABC News revealed that Musk was wary of the cooperation between the Trump administration and OpenAI, viewing it as a threat to his AI business, undermining his ambitions in the AI field.

Trade policy opposition: Earlier, Musk on X harshly criticized Trump’s trade advisor Peter Navarro as “dumber than a bag of bricks,” openly opposing high tariff policies.

Axios quoted insiders stating that Trump was quite infuriated by Musk’s “public undermining.” A senior White House official revealed on June 4th that Trump felt “confused and displeased” by Musk’s fierce criticism, warning, “He may forgive but won’t forget such betrayal.” However, the White House also cautiously remarked, “It’s too early to say the relationship is broken.”

So, how should we interpret Musk’s drama?

In my view, Musk’s grievances may be genuine, but escalating them to a fallout between the two, leading Musk to vent his frustrations with the “One Big Beautiful Bill,” seems somewhat of a misinterpretation. The main disagreement between them is primarily centered around government spending. It’s a matter of differing viewpoints rather than a complete fallout with Trump.

Many may recall that in 2022, after leaving Trump’s first term government, Trump publicly taunted Musk, stating that Musk brought various problematic projects for federal assistance, including the low battery life of Tesla and SpaceX not knowing where it’s flying. He even mentioned that if he asked Musk to kneel, Musk would surely comply. At that time, Musk was more focused on personal interests, but after the experiences of the past two years, both have matured significantly, unlikely to create a fuss over minor interests.

Presently, Musk resembles a fiscal hardliner of MAGA, hoping to significantly cut federal spending, which was also his initial purpose in joining DOGE. Additionally, he may not fully comprehend how tax cuts can advance GDP and revenue, coupled with the Congressional Budget Office’s conservative calculations, estimating an average annual GDP growth of only 1.8%. This makes CBO’s predicted deficit increase of $2.8 trillion appear alarming, while the White House believes tax cuts could boost economic growth by 2.5%-3%, leading to 0.5% fiscal surplus.

Moreover, Musk’s call to fans to persuade senators to “Kill the Bill” is unlikely to outright kill the legislation but may pressure the Senate to cut spending. However, significant changes are not expected as, firstly, Trump does not wish to significantly reduce federal spending; he wants to implement tax cuts first, fulfilling a voter promise and boosting U.S. consumer confidence. Secondly, Trump must face political realities, necessitating some compromises, as drastically reducing government spending could harm the economy and legislators’ reelection prospects. Thirdly, substantial fiscal cuts are unfavorable for the economy, especially without a decrease in interest rates.

I believe Musk is somewhat idealistic, which is suitable for running his businesses. Trump, as President, must progressively promote policies based on reality. This is also the real reason why Musk failed to achieve the DOGE reduction target – Trump doesn’t want him to pursue radical reform overly aggressively, understanding that significant changes take time to evolve.

Regarding cutting government spending, Trump hopes to gradually do so year by year. This is a crucial divergence between the two – Musk aims for a one-time comprehensive reduction.

I also believe that, even with Musk urging fans to call legislators to “Kill the Bill,” the bill likely won’t be actually slain; it may pressure the Senate to trim spending. However, significant changes are not anticipated because, overall, firstly, Trump doesn’t want substantial cuts in federal spending; he aims to focus on implementing tax cuts first, fulfilling voter commitments and boosting U.S. resident consumption confidence. Secondly, Trump must compromise based on political realities; considerable cuts in government spending could harm the economy and legislators’ re-election chances. Thirdly, significant fiscal reductions are unfavorable for the economy, especially if interest rates do not decline.

In my view, Musk’s discontent may be valid, but projecting it onto a feud between the two leading to using the “One Big Beautiful Bill” as a vent seems somewhat of a misinterpretation, bordering on having a narrow-minded perspective. The main disagreement lies in government spending. It’s a matter of differing viewpoints rather than a rift with Trump.

At the current point, Musk and Trump definitely won’t approach the issue as I do, striving to understand the problem from a centrist viewpoint. Both are potent figures with strong personalities, hence by Thursday afternoon, their conflict had finally erupted, issuing public challenges. Tesla subsequently plummeted by over 8%. This intense debate, we’ll delve into it shortly.

Firstly, how should we perceive this bill? Is it truly “big and good” as Trump claims, or “big and ugly” as Musk describes it?

Today, I discovered two significant news pieces that favor Trump:

Firstly, Trump announced on social media, “Shocking is that the Democrat-controlled Congressional Budget Office has just announced that tariffs will decrease by at least $2.8 trillion in deficits. It’s a shame this message wasn’t released earlier to prevent deliberate falsehoods.” This indicates that tariff impacts were previously underestimated in the budget.

Secondly, in a surprising move after Trump’s return, the Wall Street Journal, known for often taking a different stance, published an editorial on June 4th boldly supporting the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act.” The editorial titled “A $4.5 Trillion Tax Increase, or Not?” directly addresses the economic lifeline significance of the bill. A failure would result in the expiration of the 2017 tax cut policies by the end of 2025, leading to a $4.5 trillion surge in taxes in 2026, severely impacting businesses and households and pushing the U.S. economy towards the brink of recession.

The editorial also points out the nerve-wracking history of the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) predictions, citing failed cases such as the “Inflation Reduction Act” energy and climate appropriations, which were estimated at $391 billion within ten years but being infinite, Goldman Sachs quickly estimated that the diverse green subsidies could eventually cost around $1.2 trillion. In 2010, it projected that federalizing student loans would lead to increased revenues, but instead, it resulted in losses in the hundreds of billions.

In essence, as an authoritative financial media outlet, the Wall Street Journal’s stance is crystal clear: the bill’s benefits outweigh its drawbacks.

Of course, this story is far from over, and Trump’s and Musk’s conflict seems to be intensifying. On Thursday, Musk continued to rally netizens on Twitter against the bill’s shortcomings, dredging up Trump’s past remarks. For example, he quoted Trump’s 2013 statement: “Can’t believe the Republicans can increase the debt ceiling. I’m a Republican and I’m embarrassed!” Musk commented, “Words of wisdom.”

Musk also recited a statement from 2012 by Trump: “If our country’s budget can’t be balanced, any lawmaker should lose their re-election eligibility – can’t allow a deficit!” Musk commented, “I couldn’t agree more.”

As Musk insinuated online, Trump said in an interview on Thursday (June 5th) some very severe words: “Elon knows the ins and outs of this (‘Big Beautiful Act’)… he had no issues at first, but once we wanted to cut the electric vehicle mandate, issues arose.” “He hasn’t personally said anything negative about me, but I believe he will in the future. I am very disappointed in Elon.” He also stated that even without Musk, he could have won Pennsylvania in 2024, preferring Musk to criticize him rather than the bill as it’s a genuinely beautiful bill.

In response, Musk, feeling indignant, proclaimed, “Wrong, I was never shown this bill even once, and it was swiftly passed in the dead of night, almost no senator could read it!”

Trump further asserted that Musk had “gone mad.” He posted on Truth media: “Elon has ‘exhausted’ himself, I asked him to leave. I canceled his electric car authorization, an authorization that forced everyone to buy electric cars they don’t want (he knew I’d do this months ago!), and he’s gone crazy! (went CRAZY!)”

Trump even stated more pointedly, “The easiest way to save billions in our budget is to terminate Musk’s government subsidies and contracts. I’ve been surprised Biden hasn’t done this!” He also reflected on how the bill would lower taxes and make America great again.

By this point, Musk had also refused to hold back, launching a fierce attack on Trump on X. He said, “Given the President’s statement about canceling my government contracts, @SpaceX will immediately begin retiring its Dragon spacecraft.”

He also mentioned that Trump was on Epstein’s list and asked netizens if it was time to start a new party accommodating 80% of moderates. He also cited a statement by Trump on March 24th, using Trump’s words against him: “Elon has never asked me for anything. I mean, I canceled the electric car mandate… but he never asked me for anything. I think that’s a fantastic quality… Elon is a patriot, and we are very grateful for the work you’ve done.” He also said he supported impeaching Trump, letting Pence take over.

It reminds me of Putin’s famous saying, “When two tigers fight, a wise monkey should watch from the sidelines.”

In this century’s great battle, Americans have taken sides with either party, while some express sad sentiments, “It’s hard when mom and dad fight.”

What will happen next? In my opinion, it is highly likely that this conflict between Musk and Trump, viewed as a brief episode, will primarily be how “boys will be boys.”

I believe this is merely a momentary squabble between the two strong personalities, Musk and Trump, who essentially are “patriotic partners.” Public spats and expressing differing political views are integral to America’s diverse spirit. It’s not a big deal; history will continue to progress.

How do you perceive this? Please share your views in the comments.

“In-depth Analysis by Qin Peng.”

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