In recent developments in the Chinese military hierarchy, reports have emerged implicating high-ranking officials in corruption scandals. Among them, Miao Hua, a member of the military commission, has been confirmed to have fallen from grace. However, there were previous rumors of the arrest of Defense Minister Dong Jun, who was recently seen in public. Analysts suggest that internal power struggles within the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) are still intense, with Dong Jun possibly providing incriminating evidence against Miao Hua as a form of “redeeming” himself. This could lead to a shorter tenure for Dong Jun as defense minister. Some analyses point to a power struggle between Xi Jinping and the Vice Chairman of the Military Commission, Zhang Youxia, which may have played a role in Miao Hua’s downfall.
According to a press release from the Chinese Ministry of National Defense, Dong Jun met with delegation leaders attending the second Gulf of Guinea Security Situation Special Symposium in Shanghai on December 5th. This appearance comes after over a week of speculation regarding Dong Jun’s involvement in corruption investigations.
While some media outlets claim that Dong Jun’s public appearance debunks rumors, the Chinese Ministry of National Defense has maintained a low profile regarding this matter. Limitations on comments were observed on the official social media platform, indicating selective moderation.
Senior researcher Lin Helical from the Jamestown Foundation in Hong Kong commented in an interview with Voice of America that Dong Jun’s public appearance may seem like dispelling rumors on the surface. However, this could be a strategic move in the power play between Xi Jinping and other factions within the military, allowing Dong Jun to maintain dignity but not necessarily security.
Lin Helical suggested that Dong Jun might have provided evidence against Miao Hua, akin to “confessing and contributing to a case.” However, the ramifications of Miao Hua’s dismissal may extend to his navy faction, subordinates, and those he had previously promoted. It is unlikely that Dong Jun will remain as defense minister for an extended period, despite potentially being given a graceful exit.
Former Chinese Navy Colonel Yao Cheng, who leaked news of Miao Hua’s arrest a week prior, revealed on his social media channel that a joint investigation team comprising the CCP’s disciplinary and military commissions implicated Qin Shengxiang, Yuan Huazhi, former political commissars of the navy, and Dong Jun for providing testimony against Miao Hua. These individuals are currently residing within the naval compound and have not been detained yet.
As per analyses by Lin Helical, the fallout from Miao Hua’s downfall will likely prove insurmountable, considering Dong Jun’s close ties to Miao Hua. Moreover, Dong Jun did not initially enjoy Xi Jinping’s trust before assuming the role of defense minister. This precarious situation implies that Dong Jun’s future within the military was already in question.
At 63 years old, Dong Jun served as Deputy Commander and Commander of the Navy and was promoted to Admiral in September 2021, subsequently becoming the Minister of National Defense in December 2023. His predecessors, Li Shangfu and Wei Feng, were both incarcerated for corruption in June this year, facing expulsion from the party and military ranks.
Regarding the power struggle within the Chinese military, Lin Helical indicated the possibility that Miao Hua’s ousting may not have been orchestrated by Xi Jinping but rather instigated by his political rival, Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission, Zhang Youxia.
Lin Helical emphasized that Xi Jinping’s reliance on Miao Hua to enforce discipline and personnel changes in the military left him vulnerable to Zhang Youxia’s manipulation, potentially striking back by targeting Dong Jun. This intricate dynamic signifies a challenge to Xi Jinping’s control over the military establishment.
Su Ziyun, Director of the Institute of National Defense Strategy and Resources at the Taiwan Institute of National Defense and Security Studies, echoed similar sentiments in an interview with Voice of America. The cascading downfall of leaders like Li Shangfu, Wei Feng, and now Miao Hua suggests a diminishing grip on power for Xi Jinping, amidst continuous tensions with Zhang Youxia. Notably, Xi Jinping previously sidelined personnel aligned with Zhang Youxia – figures like Li Shangfu and Wei Feng – who have now been implicated in Dong Jun and Miao Hua’s cases, indicating possible reprisals by Zhang Youxia. These developments hint at Xi Jinping’s weakening authority.
Su Ziyun remarked that apart from within the military, Xi Jinping faces numerous challenges in economic, diplomatic, and domestic arenas. The recent fall of Miao Hua underscores the prevailing uncertainties and complexities in the current political landscape.
The timing and manner of Miao Hua’s dismissal have raised eyebrows. In the past, announcements of investigations involving high-ranking CCP officials were typically made by Xinhua News Agency or the CPC’s disciplinary agencies. However, the news of Miao Hua’s investigation was revealed by a spokesperson from the Ministry of National Defense, deviating from conventional protocol and underscoring unusual circumstances.
Analysts, such as Wang Youqun, a former senior writer for the CCP Central Commission for Discipline Inspection, suggest that Xi Jinping’s waning influence is evidenced by the prominent role now assumed by Zhang Youxia. The revelations surrounding Miao Hua’s case and the manner in which the information was disseminated imply a shift in the balance of power towards Zhang Youxia. Wang Youqun opined that the decision to publicize Miao Hua’s investigation through the Ministry of National Defense spokesperson was likely orchestrated by Zhang Youxia, the Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission.
Furthermore, following the 20th National Party Congress, several senior military leaders were deposed without immediate public disclosure; however, the swift revelation of Miao Hua’s case diverges from the past approach. Analysts view this as a strategic move orchestrated by Zhang Youxia.
Wang Youqun expounded in his article, suggesting that Miao Hua played a pivotal role in assisting Xi Jinping with military matters. By utilizing the Ministry of National Defense spokesperson, Wu Qian, to publicize Miao Hua’s investigation worldwide, Zhang Youxia managed to strike a blow to Xi’s military influence and also target Xi’s confidants groomed through Miao Hua. This assertive move against Miao Hua not only reverberates within the military but also carries significant implications for China’s political landscape.
According to reports from China Central Television (CCTV), Xi Jinping inspected the newly established Information Support Force on December 4th, accompanied by Vice Chairman of the Military Commission Zhang Youxia, He Weidong, Military Commission Member Liu Zhenli, and Zhang Shengmin.
Commentator Zhong Yuan noted in an article for the Epoch Times that the collective public appearance of Xi Jinping and military commission members was likely a deliberate attempt to dispel rumors and portray a united front within the CCP leadership. However, the purported inspection merely consisted of group photos and receiving briefings. Xi Jinping’s remarks notably omitted mentioning the principle of “Chairman of the Military Commission Responsibility,” focusing on broader leadership principles directly impacting military authority, without elaborating on political education or military building. The tense expressions captured during the visit suggest that the inspection served more as a formality than truly addressing the prevalent speculations.