China’s employment situation continues to worsen, as revealed in a research document circulating within the political and economic system. The material indicates that with the increasing number of graduates and insufficient job opportunities, a large number of young people are opting out of the job market competition, turning “lying flat” from an individual choice into a collective phenomenon. This trend has sparked discussions within the Chinese Communist Party as a significant signal that could impact the production system and social stability.
According to individuals who have seen the material, the report has made projections on labor market pressures for the next two years. Data shows that by 2026, the number of graduates from Chinese universities is expected to reach 12.7 million, combined with graduates from vocational schools, high schools, and previous cohorts of unemployed individuals, totaling more than 20 million people struggling to enter the formal job market. The document refers to this time point as the “concentrated release window” and predicts that job pressures will further intensify in the second half of this year, leading to an increase in collective lying flat behavior.
A student named Chai who graduated from a university in 2024 shared his struggles, mentioning that he relied on his parents’ retirement income and lived in a house they purchased for him. Despite borrowing money from his family and attempting to start a business with classmates, he ended up losing money. He stated that he sent out over 200 resumes last year but received hardly any responses.
Many of Chai’s fellow graduates are also having difficulties finding jobs. Some are earning just over 2,000 yuan a month, work overtime every day, and choose to stay at home, minimizing expenses and avoiding unnecessary spending on clothes.
Scholar Xiao Yu, using a pseudonym, expressed concern about the grim economic situation in China and the increasing employment pressure. He pointed out that many young people resort to live streaming sales or content creation to attract traffic, indicating that society is entering a phase of “no future.” If authorities do not consider the future of young people, they may become a force against the Communist Party rather than representing hope in their eyes.
The leaked political and economic material mentioned the narrative of “striving to change fate” gradually losing its appeal among some young people. When there is a gap between income expectations, social mobility, and actual opportunities, some individuals choose to reduce their engagement in society, including cutting down on consumption, delaying marriage and parenthood, and staying in a non-employment status for an extended period. This phenomenon is described in the document as “collective low engagement status.”
Mrs. Zhao, a recruitment agency manager in Shanghai, remarked that compared to the previous year, companies are assigning them fewer recruitment tasks this year. She noted the challenges faced by young job seekers, with many giving up on job hunting after receiving no responses to their applications, leading to an increasing number of people opting to lie flat without financial burdens.
Former civil servant Mr. Qiu, using a pseudonym, highlighted the impact of a large number of young people simultaneously being out of employment and not pursuing further education. This situation could have a cascading effect on consumption patterns, industry operations, and societal expectations.
He mentioned, “Young people are supposed to be vital participants in consumption and production. If they simultaneously reduce their engagement, it will affect economic vitality and alter how society functions. The authorities are most concerned about this situation continuing. Grid workers in our neighborhood are going door-to-door, urging young people not to lie flat but to strive for progress. Is it reasonable to ask young people to go to rural areas? This is completely absurd.”
The report also points out that “lying flat” differs from traditional unemployment in that some individuals are not completely incapable of working but choose to withdraw from the competitive system after multiple unsuccessful job searches, entering a state of passive stability. This group is not fully reflected in official statistics but is growing in reality.
Recent measures introduced by various departments of the Chinese Communist Party to expand employment and encourage grassroots job creation have been noted. Some analysts believe that these policies are focused more on short-term job absorption, with an increasing impact on economic growth. With the continued expansion of graduation cohorts and tightening job markets, the labor force is entering a new phase of adjustment.
The dissemination of the internal material mentioned above reveals a trend beyond official data. As more young people opt to reduce their participation, the issue of employment is shaking the authoritarian system of the Communist Party. As societal pressures mount, retaliatory actions and random violent incidents are occurring more frequently.