According to Indian scholars, the investigation of the Chinese military’s number two figure, Zhang Youxia, by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) may directly impact personnel changes at the upcoming 21st Party Congress. The CCP is scheduled to convene the 21st Party Congress in Beijing in the autumn of 2027.
On Friday, January 30, the South Asian Institute of National Technological University of Singapore released a working paper by Manoj Kewalramani, Chair of the Indo-Pacific Research Program at the Bengaluru Takshashila Institute in India, discussing the potential impact of Zhang Youxia’s downfall on the 21st Party Congress.
Kewalramani, a visiting scholar at the South Asian Institute of National Technological University, pointed out in his latest paper that the removal of a high-ranking official like Zhang Youxia will inevitably have a cascading effect on the promotion network of military officers under Zhang, raising serious doubts about the cohesion and combat capability of the CCP’s military. Furthermore, it may foster feelings of distrust and anxiety throughout the party-state system. However, the most significant impact of the investigation into Zhang may be manifested at the upcoming 21st Party Congress.
The 21st Party Congress will elect a new generation of leaders of the CCP Central Committee, including members of the Central Committee, alternate members of the Central Committee, and members of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection. The composition of positions like General Secretary of the Central Committee, the Politburo of the Central Committee, the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Central Committee, the Secretariat of the Central Committee, and the Central Military Commission will be announced in subsequent Central Committee meetings.
Kewalramani listed several possible outcomes of the 21st Party Congress:
– Xi Jinping secures his fourth term.
– Xi Jinping continues in power but designates a successor as Vice President of the country, poised to take over as President in 2032.
– He designates a successor, steps down from the Politburo Standing Committee but retains the top-level “Chairman” role.
– He resigns as President but remains General Secretary and Chairman of the Central Military Commission.
– He resigns as General Secretary and President but remains Chairman of the Central Military Commission.
– Other forms of mixed arrangements may also emerge.
The sudden downfall of Zhang Youxia will directly influence the outcome of the 21st Party Congress.
The Indian scholar noted that Zhang Youxia’s fall from grace essentially means that the upper echelons of the CCP Central Military Commission will be completely cleared out, with only younger newcomers to take over. Therefore, the social and political distance between Xi Jinping and the next generation of leaders of the Central Military Commission may be greater, leading to two main impacts.
First, these newly appointed individuals are less likely to question Xi Jinping’s authority, resist his agenda, or pose independent political challenges. Zhang Youxia, three years older than Xi Jinping, brings practical experience, military prestige, and institutional influence.
Second, although a younger, more compliant leadership may be more obedient to Xi, this also means weakening policy debates, distorting the flow of information from top to bottom, at the cost of institutional feedback.
Furthermore, from the perspective of the successors, this balancing act may be crucial. Assuming Xi Jinping seriously considers power transition around 2027, the existence of a powerful peer at the top of the military hierarchy will complicate this process. Figures like Zhang Youxia, at least in theory, can influence elite consensus, question the choice of successors, or become a focal point for other preferences within the system.
The paper states, “In this sense, removing Zhang Youxia may not simply be about consolidating current power, but rather about preemptively controlling the future of power transition politics.”