China’s economy continues to show signs of weakness, with the mainland experiencing a surge in youth unemployment even before the peak graduation season for college students arrives. In March, the youth unemployment rate in mainland China reached 16.9%, hitting a four-month high, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics.
This data, announced by the Chinese government, revealed that the unemployment rate among individuals aged 16-24, excluding students, stood at 16.9%, marking a 0.8 percentage point increase from the previous month and reaching a four-month high. Similarly, the unemployment rate for individuals aged 25-29, excluding students, rose to 7.7%, the highest since March 2025.
For individuals aged 30-59, excluding students, the unemployment rate was reported at 4.3%, showing a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month.
Of particular concern is the fact that the unemployment rate for individuals aged 25-29, excluding students, is the highest recorded since the data for this group started being published in December 2023.
Critics have long questioned the accuracy of the data released by the Chinese government, suggesting that the actual situation may be more severe than the official figures indicate.
Recent statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics revealed that the national surveyed urban unemployment rate surged to 5.4% in March, the highest since March last year.
The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security estimated that this year will see 12.7 million new college graduates, an increase of 480,000 from the previous year, setting a new historical high. Analysts predict that this will bring significant pressure to the job market in China.
In July 2023, official figures showed that the youth unemployment rate for individuals aged 16-24 reached 21.3%, the highest since the statistic was first recorded. Subsequently, the authorities halted the publication of this data.
Starting from December 2023, the National Bureau of Statistics adjusted the method of calculating age-specific unemployment rates, including data for individuals aged 16-24, 25-29, and 30-59, excluding students from the statistics.
An associate professor of economics at Peking University, Zhang Dandan, published an article titled “The Possibly Underestimated Youth Unemployment Rate” on the financial news portal “Caixin.” The article suggested that the actual youth unemployment rate in China may have peaked at 46.5% in March 2023, significantly higher than the officially reported figures.
Commentator Xiao Yi previously mentioned to the media that there are significant limitations in the statistical methods used by the Chinese government. The urban surveyed unemployment rate is calculated through sampling survey estimations, mainly targeting urban residents who have lived in a city for over six months. Xiao Yi pointed out that the statistics fail to account for three significant groups: many recent graduates pursuing further studies or planning to go abroad, who are not actively seeking employment; the approximately 300 million migrant workers who are systematically underestimated or excluded from the data; and a large number of self-employed individuals who may not be classified as unemployed but rather as employed.
This analysis suggests that the official data on unemployment may not fully capture the true extent of the issue in China, raising concerns about the accuracy and reliability of the published figures.