Recent data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China shows that the country’s economy is continuing to decline, with a surge in unemployment. The latest statistics indicate that the nationwide urban survey unemployment rate in March was 5.4%, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from February, reaching a 13-month high. While official statements claim that the employment situation is “overall stable,” analysts argue that the official data itself is not trustworthy, and the actual unemployment situation is very serious.
According to Mao Shengyong, the Deputy Director of the National Bureau of Statistics of China, the nationwide urban survey unemployment rate for March was 5.4%. The average urban survey unemployment rate for the first quarter was 5.3%, remaining the same as last year, showing an overall stable employment situation.
However, the urban survey unemployment rate in March stood at 5.4%, up by 0.1 percentage point from February (5.3%) and by 0.2 percentage points from the same period last year (5.2%), marking a new high since March 2025.
The official unemployment rate calculated by the Chinese government has long been considered unreliable, mainly due to the use of the “urban survey unemployment rate,” which has its loopholes.
Analyst Xiao Yi pointed out that there are three groups in reality that are not fully reflected in the data. Firstly, a large number of ordinary college graduates who are preparing for further studies, civil service exams, or planning to go abroad are not counted as unemployed, even if they are jobless, because they have not actively sought employment in the past three months. Graduates who temporarily return home, live in school dormitories, or are in a transient state are not included in the sample. Secondly, the group of nearly 300 million migrant workers is systematically underestimated or overlooked. Thirdly, a significant number of self-employed individuals are not classified as unemployed but rather included in the employed population.
The number of Chinese college graduates is expected to reach 12.7 million this year, an increase of 480,000 from last year, hitting a record high. It is estimated that this will bring new pressure to the Chinese job market.
During the recent National People’s Congress and Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, the authorities also claimed that the “employment situation is generally stable.” However, recent interviews by media outlets revealed that many Chinese people are facing job losses and struggling to find employment.
Social media in China is filled with videos of people lamenting their unemployment. One netizen wrote, “It’s too hard to find a job in Kunshan. Why is it so difficult to find work here? A few days ago, I was played by a recruitment agency. I walked half of the fifteen kilometers and they called me saying not to come, they’re full. I didn’t even know where to go next, and it was raining, I was freezing.”
Some videos considered sensitive were quickly taken down.
In recent years, the Chinese authorities have been emphasizing the so-called “bright economic theory,” suppressing discussions that expose the true economic situation. Mainland Chinese media rarely cover interviews with the unemployed. Journalists in various regions recently told Epoch Times that the propaganda department has issued directives through internal channels, categorizing the economic downturn and difficulties in college graduates’ employment as “sensitive content,” with media coverage requiring unified control, subject to review, and some content being directly halted.