Before the Chinese New Year, Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission Zhang Shengmin visited soldiers in Beijing, pledging to implement the system of responsibility under the chairmanship of the military commission and expressing loyalty to the party leader Xi Jinping. He emphasized the importance of maintaining stability within the military. Analysts believe that with the recent downfall of Vice Chairman Zhang Yuxia and Commission Member Liu Zhenli, Zhang Shengmin is now the only senior military leader remaining in the commission. His focus on maintaining stability indicates the current unrest within the military.
According to Xinhua News Agency, on the eve of the Chinese New Year, Zhang Shengmin visited and comforted troops stationed in Beijing on February 11. He visited an engineering and technical battalion under the military space force and a guard unit in the Beijing Garrison as well. Zhang mentioned Xi Jinping’s strong military thinking, the “two maintenance” principle (maintaining Xi’s Communist Party political terminology), implementing the system of responsibility under the chairmanship, emphasizing the need to “strengthen military training for combat readiness,” “effectively utilize the weapons and equipment at hand,” and “maintain a high degree of unity and security and stability within the forces,” among other things.
Official media reported that Zhang Shengmin visited barracks, training grounds, cafeterias, cultural activity centers, and other places to inspect the troops’ combat training and living conditions while engaging in conversations with officers and soldiers.
Political commentator Li Lin said that following the arrests of combatants Zhang Yuxia and Liu Zhenli, lower-ranking soldiers may be generally dissatisfied. Zhang Shengmin’s visits to military camps and interactions with officers and soldiers, as well as his emphasis on maintaining military stability, are in line with his expertise and intentions. His emphasis on “safety and stability” in his speech reflects the current instability within the military.
Since January 31, the Chinese military newspaper has continuously published articles criticizing Zhang and Liu, urging the military to support decisions made by the so-called “Central Committee,” to understand the overall situation and not to be distracted, among other things. This has been seen as confirming that official actions against Zhang and Liu have caused dissatisfaction among officers and soldiers.
Li Lin also mentioned that Zhang Shengmin’s loyalty to Xi may not guarantee his safety. Zhang Yuxia publicly expressed loyalty to Xi in party media at the end of last year, only to be suddenly taken down from his position.
On January 24, the Chinese Ministry of National Defense announced that Vice Chairman Zhang Yuxia and Deputy Chief of the Joint Staff Department Liu Zhenli of the Central Military Commission were under investigation. In the current Central Military Commission, only Chairman Xi Jinping and Vice Chairman Zhang Shengmin, who was added as Vice Chairman last year, are still in office.
Political commentator Du Zheng, who is familiar with Chinese politics, writing in “Shang Bao,” pointed out that during the power struggle between Zhang Yuxia, He Weidong, and Xi Jinping, Zhang Shengmin was a target being courted by both sides. When Xi Jinping and He Weidong targeted Zhang Yuxia in the investigation of equipment corruption, it was Zhang Shengmin who executed the orders. And when Zhang Yuxia aimed to take down He Weidong, Zhang Shengmin played a significant role in collecting evidence against them. However, when Xi finally decided to bring down Zhang Yuxia, Zhang Shengmin switched sides to support Xi.
On the afternoon of February 6, during Xi Jinping’s visit to a cultural performance for retired military personnel in Beijing, only Vice Chairman Zhang Shengmin accompanied him. While Xi Jinping greeted the retired military personnel, Zhang Shengmin followed behind with a noticeably stiff expression.
Former Central Commission for Discipline Inspection official Wang Youqun, in an article for “Da Ji Yuan” on February 9, suggested that although Zhang Shengmin is now the only Vice Chairman of the Military Commission under the entire military organization, with over two million people, in reality, he is treading on thin ice. If he is not careful, he could easily fall into a trap.
Wang Youqun identified five reasons why Zhang Shengmin is in a precarious position: 1. He assisted in the investigation of Zhang Yuxia’s affiliates and then aided Zhang Yuxia in investigating Xi’s affiliates; 2. Zhang Shengmin has offended too many people; 3. He lacks a strong backing; 4. If Xi dares to take down Zhang Yuxia, who is to say he wouldn’t go after Zhang Shengmin as well? 5. It is said that Xi is very superstitious about prophecies, particularly the one in the Tang Dynasty prophecy book “Tui Bei Tu” that mentions “a person with ‘bow’ will initiate a military revolt.” Xi is allegedly concerned about preventing this prophecy from coming true.
Wang Youqun pointed out that Zhang Yuxia’s name contains the character for “bow.” Now that Xi has taken down Zhang Yuxia, Zhang Shengmin’s name also includes the character for “bow.” Will Xi Jinping spare Zhang Shengmin? As the only Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission, Zhang Shengmin’s future remains perilous, and he might need to keep one eye open even while sleeping.