On March 10th and 11th, the closing sessions of the National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference and the National People’s Congress were held. As the “Two Sessions” of the Chinese Communist Party concluded, discussions about power shifts within the CCP military have captured attention overseas, with Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission Zhang Youxia being seen as “rising,” while Xi Jinping’s “loss of military authority” sparking controversies.
During this year’s “Two Sessions,” on March 7th, Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission Zhang Youxia presided over the meeting of the military and armed police delegations of the National People’s Congress. Vice Chairman of the Military Commission He Weidong, and members of the Military Commission Liu Zhenli and Zhang Shengmin were in attendance, while Miao Hua, a member of Xi Jinping’s military faction, a member of the Central Military Commission, and the director of the Political Work Department, was absent due to being under investigation.
Based on footage from Chinese Central Television, it was reported that Li Qiaoming, the Army Commander who was under investigation at the end of 2024, appeared at the meetings of the military delegation on both March 3rd and 7th.
At the end of 2024, during the promotion ceremony of the new Army Political Commissar Chen Hui to the rank of General, Li Qiaoming, the Army Commander, the former Army Political Commissar Qin Shutong, Navy Political Commissar Yuan Huazhi, and Armed Police Commander Wang Chunning, all four generals were absent, which led to speculation of their being investigated. During these two sessions, only Li Qiaoming made a public appearance, while Navy Political Commissar Yuan Huazhi and Armed Police Commander Wang Chunning, both National People’s Congress delegates, did not attend. Former Army Political Commissar Qin Shutong, who is not a delegate of the National People’s Congress, is also connected to Xi Jinping.
According to a report by Taiwan’s New Headline on March 10th, this has raised speculations about Xi Jinping losing control of the military.
The report pointed out that Li Qiaoming has been viewed as a confidant of Zhang Youxia in the past, both of whom come from an Army background, had interactions during the Vietnam War, and had a close relationship during their time in the Shenyang Military Region. This shift in dynamics has lent credence to the idea that the center of military power is tilting towards Zhang Youxia.
Since the Third Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee in July 2024, signs of Xi Jinping’s restricted power have become increasingly apparent, with significant personnel reshuffling in the military leadership, and Xi Jinping’s confidants gradually being marginalized. Meanwhile, Zhang Youxia’s influence within the military has been growing steadily since the military reform, as he has been promoting generals within the Army system to establish a strong support network. In recent years, with corruption cases within the Rocket Force and Equipment Department coming to light, Xi Jinping’s influence in the military has significantly declined, while Zhang Youxia has been gaining more control.
Independent commentator Cai Shunkun, in a commentary on March 7th, analyzed the power struggle behind the attendance of military leaders at the CCP Two Sessions. He pointed out that these Two Sessions have become an important window to observe the internal strife in the military and setbacks to Xi Jinping’s military authority, especially with Army Commander Li Qiaoming making a public reappearance, and the absence of several of Xi Jinping’s confidant generals, indicating a shift in military power towards Vice Chairman Zhang Youxia, challenging Xi Jinping’s control.
Cai Shunkun mentioned that after stepping down as the Northern Theater Commander, Li Qiaoming disappeared from the public eye following his visit to Russia in August 2023, leading to widespread belief that he was under investigation for his involvement in the cases of Miao Hua and Qin Shutong. Now, Li Qiaoming’s public appearance and attendance at the meeting indicate that he has been “cleared.”
Cai Shunkun analyzed that Li Qiaoming is not a direct confidant of Xi Jinping but has deep ties with Zhang Youxia throughout his military career. It is believed that Li Qiaoming’s appointment as the Army Commander in 2022 was also due to Zhang Youxia’s recommendation. He speculated that Li Qiaoming’s return this time is largely due to Zhang Youxia’s intervention for protection rather than direct shelter from Xi Jinping.
He believes that the former Army Political Commissar Qin Shutong, Navy Political Commissar Yuan Huazhi, and Armed Police Commander Wang Chunning, all closely related to Miao Hua, the Director of the Political Work Department of the Military Commission who represents the “Fujian Gang,” have suffered significant setbacks in recent years in the military’s anti-corruption campaign.
As of now, there is no official disclosure from the Chinese state media about changes in high-level military power. However, there hasn’t been any official rebuttal of such speculations either.