The “Eleven” long holiday in mainland China has come to an end. The stock market, which had surged before the holiday and was hyped as a bull market, saw a sharp drop in thousands of stocks in the first two trading days after the holiday. Many new stock investors got trapped, losing their investments with no return, leading to a further decline in the market on Monday, October 14th. During this period, mainland Chinese internet celebrities and expert analysts Ren Zeping and Dan Bin clashed fiercely over their divergent views on the market direction, with Dan Bin eventually stating that he would no longer “communicate” with Ren Zeping, which drew attention.
At a press conference held by the Chinese Ministry of Finance on October 12th, the official statements were criticized for being empty words, and on Monday, October 14th, the A shares plummeted as soon as the market opened.
Ren Zeping, a well-known Chinese economist who had previously been banned from speaking out about the economic situation, was seen as a representative figure predicting a bullish trend in the A shares market. On the other hand, Dan Bin, a renowned Chinese private equity fund manager, had been consistently warning about the risks in the market.
On October 4th, Ren Zeping confidently claimed that on the first trading day after the “Eleven” holiday (October 8th), the market would “close at the opening, allowing an early end to the workday”.
Despite Ren Zeping’s optimistic outlook, the market surged after the holiday on the 8th, leading him to post on Weibo emphasizing to not bet against the market irrespective of one’s views, warning of significant consequences otherwise. He even published a post titled “The Bull Market is Here,” asserting a bullish sentiment.
However, the market took a nosedive after the surge on the 8th, closing well below the opening price, humbling Ren Zeping as he quietly deleted his previous statements.
Meanwhile, during the market surge, Dan Bin, the chairman of Oriental Harbor and a fund manager, expressed skepticism about the market multiple times. On October 2nd, Dan Bin remarked on the A shares rally, predicting an imminent sharp decline and cautioning against getting caught up again, indicating that getting out of the situation may be difficult.
Dan Bin acknowledged that if he ended up being wrong, it would simply imply his lack of expertise rather than suggesting any deliberate misinformation, citing his accurate prediction of the 2015 stock market crash.
As the A shares market dramatically reversed course on October 9th, Dan Bin took to writing on the 10th, highlighting the true patriots and criticizing those who advocated a bull market and contributed to foreign fund withdrawals, juxtaposing himself as the one who warned about risks and faced backlash.
On the 11th, Dan Bin indirectly criticized Ren Zeping, questioning whether those who hyped up the bull market should apologize for their actions which misled investors and showered misinformation, ultimately putting ordinary investors in a difficult spot.
In response, Ren Zeping on the 11th called Dan Bin’s views “bizarre”, accusing him of not only failing to predict correctly but also being morally bankrupt for attempting to undermine the Chinese economy and public policies. He questioned the need to disparage the economy and policies while offering constructive suggestions and avoiding derogatory remarks during critical times.
Dan Bin directly named Ren Zeping as someone who is orchestrating misleading opinions, urging him to act as a rational and objective economist rather than using conspiracy theories and populism to divert attention, emphasizing that as an economist, one should not act impulsively.
Moreover, Ren Zeping pointed out on the 12th that one of Dan Bin’s fund products had suffered serious losses, but Dan Bin clarified that the fund mentioned was not under his operation.
In the early hours of October 14th, Dan Bin, the chairman of Oriental Harbor, once again replied to the criticisms from economist Ren Zeping regarding his performance. Dan Bin stated that Ren Zeping disregarded facts, distorted information, and lacked the objectivity expected of an economist, concluding that their “communication” would cease here and reinforcing his stance.
The heated debates between Ren Zeping and Dan Bin on the bullish and bearish views have sparked lively discussions among netizens. Currently, supporters of Dan Bin’s views seem to be prevailing, with many believing that listening to Dan Bin would at least prevent monetary losses.
Public records show that Dan Bin, chairman of Oriental Harbor, began his investment career in 1992 and currently has over 13 million followers on Weibo. Ren Zeping, a postdoctoral fellow at Tsinghua University School of Economics and Management, who previously served as the Deputy Director of the Macroeconomics Division at the Development Research Center of the State Council, now has 5.55 million Weibo followers.
The recent hot market trend in the A shares market first attracted a large number of investors, but subsequent significant declines and empty statements from the Chinese National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance have left many investors facing losses. According to a report from “海報新聞”, a stock investor in Chengdu, Sichuan, faced losses of 320,000 RMB in just four days after the “Eleven” holiday, while Xu Xiaoniu, a 30-year-old full-time stock investor in Tongling, Anhui, has accumulated losses of about 1.5 million RMB after three years of stock trading.