The price of Feitian Moutai dropped to 1550 yuan per bottle on some e-commerce platforms in mainland China on November 1st, and at the same time, the wholesale price of Moutai also hit a new low since its listing. Some commentators believe that if the price of Moutai continues to fall, it may lead to widespread losses for recyclers and distributors, and the signal to stop the decline of Moutai has not yet appeared.
According to the “Investment Express” on November 1st, on that day, in some stores of a certain e-commerce platform, the price of a double-bottle pack of Feitian Moutai 53% ABV/500ml was reported at 3100 yuan, equivalent to only 1550 yuan per bottle; the prices on most e-commerce platforms were also below 1600 yuan per bottle; and the “group purchase price” of Feitian Moutai on a certain e-commerce platform had dropped to the same as the retail price guidance at 1499 yuan per bottle.
However, Moutai’s same type of product at Guizhou Moutai’s self-operated store on JD.com is still priced at 1800 yuan per bottle, while the price at JD’s self-operated store (JD Supermarket) is as low as 1750.31 yuan per bottle.
On the same day, the wholesale reference prices of multiple Moutai liquors also declined. Data from the liquor market monitoring platform showed on November 1st, the wholesale reference price for Feitian Moutai (53% ABV/500ml) was reported at 1620 yuan per bottle, a decrease of 20 yuan from the previous day, hitting a new low since listing; compared to the initial 2220 yuan per bottle when the platform first launched, the drop exceeded 27%. In addition, the wholesale reference price for Feitian Moutai (53% ABV/1L) was 3050 yuan per bottle, down 20 yuan from the previous day; and for the Zodiac Snake (53% ABV/500ml) was 1865 yuan per bottle, down 15 yuan from the previous day; representing a decrease of 17.56% and 50.92% respectively from the beginning of the year at 3700 yuan per bottle and 3800 yuan per bottle.
Since the beginning of the year, the wholesale prices of Feitian Moutai have been continuously decreasing. On the first day of 2025, the wholesale reference prices of the 2024 53% ABV 500ml original box and loose bottle were 2315 yuan per bottle and 2220 yuan per bottle respectively. It then entered a downward trend, breaking through several important price levels such as 2000 yuan, 1900 yuan, 1800 yuan, and 1700 yuan per bottle. Compared to the beginning of the year, the wholesale reference price per bottle of Feitian Moutai has dropped by 500 yuan. Overall, Feitian Moutai has fallen by nearly 50% in 4 years.
Financial commentator and columnist Guo Shiliang said on November 1st: “The wholesale price of Moutai liquor continues to decline, with the loose bottle and original box prices now falling below 1800 yuan, some wholesale prices dropping below 1700 yuan, leaving distributors and recyclers with very limited arbitrage space as they approach the official guidance price of 1499 yuan.”
“Financial Observation” indicates that Moutai distributors have transitioned from a past situation of easy profit to a survival mode; Feitian Moutai’s pawn shop price has dropped below 1000 yuan, causing some pawn shops to temporarily stop accepting liquor; scalpers have stopped purchasing due to daily losses; and the collectibles market has notably cooled down.
While Moutai liquor prices continue to slide, the stock price of Guizhou Moutai is also declining. Data from Tonghuashun shows that from the beginning of the year until now, the stock price of Guizhou Moutai has fallen by 4.31%. On October 30th, Guizhou Moutai closed at 1430.01 yuan per share.
Regarding the future direction of Moutai liquor prices, a research report from Huaxin Securities stated that the pressure on Moutai’s wholesale prices continues, with feedback from the industry channels indicating that inventory levels remain relatively high. Under the pressure of the year-end sales task, it is expected that the trend of wholesale prices will continue to be under pressure. Overall, the demand in the liquor market is still at a bottoming stage.
Guo Shiliang also said: “If the price of Moutai liquor continues to decline and approaches the official guidance price of 1499 yuan, it may lead to widespread losses for recyclers and distributors. Currently, the signal to stop the decline of Moutai liquor has not yet appeared.”